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The business case for a short, sharp shutdown and why it likely won't work in Canada – CBC.ca

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4 years ago

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The argument seems like a strong one: If Canadians would just follow the lead of countries and regions around the world that appear to have licked COVID-19 for now, not only would our health crisis be over, but so would our economic one.

As epidemiologists like Peter Jüni, director of the applied health research centre at Toronto’s St. Michael’s Hospital, know, under perfect conditions, breaking the link in the chain of viral spread for a mere matter of weeks would stop the disease in its tracks. Like a forest fire on an island, as soon as the available fuel is gone, it burns itself out.

“Theoretically if you have the possibility of doing a hard lockdown … after nine days you see the effect kick in very reliably,” Jüni said in a phone conversation Wednesday. “Stuff like that is theoretically possible.”

But in medicine, just as in economics, he said, theory and practice are two different things.

As the Vancouver-based Asia Pacific Foundation has shown in its research, places like China and Singapore did something very much like what Jüni suggests, got the virus under control and reopened businesses. In Taiwan, they never closed.

China imposed strict lockdowns and quarantines in places where the disease struck. Subways, restaurants and shopping streets were empty. Those who did go outside wore masks. The economy went into a tailspin, shrinking 6.8 per cent in the first three months of the year, its worse performance since the 1960s.

Shoppers visit Yorkdale Mall in Toronto as suburban dwellers shopped closer to home because of the COVID-19 pandemic in Toronto on Oct. 13, 2020. (Nichola Saminather/Reuters)

In China, after 85,000 cases and nearly 5,000 deaths, the country’s case count is now estimated at 400 in a population of 1.3 billion. That’s about the same number as Toronto reported on a single day this week.

Now, as China’s businesses reopen, the economy has bounced back. Retail spending recently climbed above pre-COVID-19 levels.

When the pandemic struck, experts at Johns Hopkins University in the U.S. “forecasted that Taiwan would fare badly due to its proximity and dense business and travel ties to China,” says an Asia Pacific Foundation report looking for lessons on how Taiwan stopped the spread of the disease.

In Taiwan, a fast response by government agencies, strict quarantines, near universal mask wearing and compliance with regulations meant that while businesses and schools did not close down, the total case count was about 600, with seven deaths.

Peter Vandergeest, an Asia specialist at Toronto’s York University and founding director at the York Centre for Asian Research, is irritated that critics put the region’s situation with the virus down to autocratic governments and an obedient population.

He said that certainly doesn’t apply to Thailand, a place he has often visited for his research and where cases remain low.

A pro-democracy protester takes part in an anti-government protest in Bangkok on Oct. 18, 2020. (Soe Zeya Tun/Reuters)

“Anybody who’s been to Thailand knows they are not rule followers,” said Vandergeest. “But when it comes to something like the virus, they take it very seriously.”

Vandergeest said that willingness to wear masks and comply with quarantines may be because of a history of experience with epidemic disease.

While scoffing at the idea that Asians are somehow all alike but different from North Americans or Europeans, Vandergeest, like many others, points to New Zealand, which has had only 25 deaths, and Australia, despite a second peak, which has cut serious cases to near zero.

Like Taiwan, New Zealand’s success can be partly attributed to its early and strict crackdown and careful watch on infections from abroad. But Australia was a different case, where the second severe lockdown led to complaints from business leaders at the time that it would be devastating for business. This week, restrictions were lifted and business began opening again.

While the St. Mike’s epidemiologist, Jüni, is encouraged by successes in Asia and Oceania, he is skeptical that they can be repeated here in Canada. That is because while it is theoretically achievable to stop the disease in its tracks, he believes that is effectively impossible in a climate where people spend so much of their time indoors.

“It has an unfortunate tendency in certain situations to become highly contagious in indoor settings,” said Jüni. “When we reach May and we all go outside again, we will be able to keep the thing relatively easily [under control]. But now it’s next to impossible.”

The problem of winter

Jüni even worries that Canada’s Atlantic bubble, based on early action, a relatively spread-out population and strict rules about new arrivals, could see a winter outbreak without careful attention.

Critics have pointed the finger at businesses and politicians who support them for worrying about short-term profit rather than long-term elimination of the virus, but research by Aya Aboelenien from the University of Montreal’s business school, the Hautes Études Commerciales, shows there are other issues at play.

“I think the problem is that the public trust in the government is fading,” said Aboelenien.

She points to new signs of coronavirus fatigue as businesses are asked to lock down a second time after the first one did not seem to work.

Jüni has sympathy for businesses that have suffered serious losses. And he is sympathetic with government officials who honestly do not know the best strategy to follow.

For now, he is convinced that the goal in Canada cannot be the virtual elimination of the virus, but something more moderate: preventing a growth in cases that would fill up hospitals and lead to a public health catastrophe.

Now that a vaccine seems feasible before next autumn, Jüni said the important thing is to keep businesses and their customers motivated and people staying within bubbles as much as possible, with the knowledge the reward will come in five months, when we move outside again.

“If we can make it to then without ending up in uncontrolled exponential growth, it will get easier.”

Follow Don on Twitter @don_pittis

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Jacob Trouba says ‘there’s no animosity’ toward Rangers following trade rumors

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9 mins ago

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September 19, 2024

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GREENBURGH, N.Y. (AP) — New York Rangers defenseman Jacob Trouba said Thursday “there’s no animosity” toward the organization following an offseason in which his name was prominently mentioned in trade rumors.

“It’s part of the business of hockey,” Trouba said following the first day of training camp for the reigning Presidents’ Trophy-winning Rangers.

According to reports, Rangers president and general manager Chris Drury had negotiated a trade that would send New York’s captain to Detroit in late June. The trade fell apart, however, when Trouba submitted his 15-team no-trade list to the Rangers on June 30 and included the Red Wings on it.

“Obviously, had the no-move that turned into the partial no-trade,” said Trouba, whom New York acquired in a trade with Winnipeg in June 2019 and signed to a seven-year, $56 million contract one month later. “That’s life, contracts, hockey business, whatever you want to call it.

“I knew that was coming that summer. It’s not by surprise. It was obviously something that was negotiated at the time.”

The 30-year-old’s insistence that his relationship with Drury is fine echoes what the executive said in a pre-training camp conference call with reporters.

“Jacob and I talk all the time as GM and captain should,” Drury said. “We’ve had a number of different conversations over the course of the summer on a lot of different things. He is very clear as to where he stands with me and what I think of him as a player and as a leader.”

Still, Trouba realizes that the 2024-25 season is likely the last for the current iteration of the Original Six franchise. The Rangers have qualified for the Stanley Cup Playoffs in each of the last three seasons, and have reached the Eastern Conference Finals in 2022 and 2024. Following last spring’s six-game series loss to the eventual Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers, Drury wondered aloud in a conference call with reporters if the Rangers’ core players could lead the franchise to a Stanley Cup.

“(It’s) an opportunity that we have in front of us that in all likelihood will probably be the last crack for this core,” Trouba said. “I don’t think that’s a secret by any means. (A) group that’s kind of grown together, spent some years together here, and there’s something we want to accomplish.”

___

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Veterans Tyson Beukeboom, Karen Paquin lead Canada’s team at WXV rugby tournament

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11 mins ago

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September 19, 2024

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Veterans Tyson Beukeboom and Karen Paquin will lead Canada at the WXV 1 women’s rugby tournament starting later this month in the Vancouver area.

WXV 1 includes the top three teams from the Women’s Six Nations (England, France and Ireland) and the top three teams from the Pacific Four Series (Canada, New Zealand, and the United States).

Third-ranked Canada faces No. 4 France, No. 7 Ireland and No. 1 England in the elite division of the three-tiered WXV tournament that runs Sept. 29 to Oct. 12 in Vancouver and Langley, B.C. No. 2 New Zealand and the eighth-ranked U.S. make up the six-team WVX 1 field.

“Our preparation time was short but efficient. This will be a strong team,” Canada coach Kevin Rouet said in a statement. “All the players have worked very hard for the last couple of weeks to prepare for WXV and we are excited for these next three matches and for the chance to play on home soil here in Vancouver against the best rugby teams in the world.

“France, Ireland and England will each challenge us in different ways but it’s another opportunity to test ourselves and another step in our journey to the Rugby World Cup next year.”

Beukeboom serves as captain in the injury absence of Sophie de Goede. The 33-year-old from Uxbridge, Ont., earned her Canadian-record 68th international cap in Canada’s first-ever victory over New Zealand in May at the Pacific Four Series.

Twenty three of the 30 Canadian players selected for WXV 1 were part of that Pacific Four Series squad.

Rouet’s roster includes the uncapped Asia Hogan-Rochester, Caroline Crossley and Rori Wood.

Hogan-Rochester and Crossley were part of the Canadian team that won rugby sevens silver at the Paris Olympics, along with WXV teammates Fancy Bermudez, Olivia Apps, Alysha Corrigan and Taylor Perry. Wood is a veteran of five seasons at UBC.

The 37-year-old Paquin, who has 38 caps for Canada including the 2014 Rugby World Cup, returns to the team for the first time since the 2021 World Cup.

Canada opens the tournament Sept. 29 against France at B.C. Place Stadium in Vancouver before facing Ireland on Oct. 5 at Willoughby Stadium at Langley Events Centre, and England on Oct. 12 at B.C. Place.

The second-tier WXV 2 and third-tier WXV 3 are slated to run Sept. 27 to Oct. 12, in South Africa and Dubai, respectively.

WXV 2 features Australia, Italy, Japan, Scotland, South Africa and Wales while WXV 3 is made up of Fiji, Hong Kong, Madagascar, the Netherlands, Samoa and Spain.

The tournament has 2025 World Cup qualification implications, although Canada, New Zealand and France, like host England, had already qualified by reaching the semifinals of the last tournament.

Ireland, South Africa, the U.S., Japan, Fiji and Brazil have also booked their ticket, with the final six berths going to the highest-finishing WXV teams who have not yet qualified through regional tournaments.

Canada’s Women’s Rugby Team WXV 1 Squad

Forwards

Alexandria Ellis, Ottawa, Stade Français Paris (France); Brittany Kassil, Guelph, Ont., Guelph Goats; Caroline Crossley, Victoria, Castaway Wanderers; Courtney Holtkamp, Rimbey, Alta., Red Deer Titans Rugby; DaLeaka Menin, Vulcan, Alta., Exeter Chiefs (England); Emily Tuttosi, Souris, Man., Exeter Chiefs (England); Fabiola Forteza, Quebec City, Stade Bordelais (France); Gabrielle Senft, Regina, Saracens (England); Gillian Boag, Calgary, Gloucester-Hartpury (England); Julia Omokhuale, Calgary, Leicester Tigers (England); Karen Paquin, Quebec City, Club de rugby de Quebec; Laetitia Royer, Loretteville, Que., ASM Romagnat (France); McKinley Hunt, King City, Ont., Saracens (England); Pamphinette Buisa, Gatineau, Que., Ottawa Irish; Rori Wood, Sooke, B.C., College Rifles RFC; Sara Cline, Edmonton, Leprechaun Tigers; Tyson Beukeboom, Uxbridge, Ont., Ealing Trailfinders (England);

Backs

Alexandra Tessier, Sainte-Clotilde-de-Horton, Que., Exeter Chiefs (England); Alysha Corrigan, Charlottetown, P.E.I., CRFC; Asia Hogan-Rochester, Toronto, Toronto Nomads; Claire Gallagher, Caledon, Ont., Leicester Tigers (England); Fancy Bermudez, Edmonton, Saracens (England); Julia Schell, Uxbridge, Ont., Ealing Trailfinders (England); Justine Pelletier, Rivière-du-Loup, Que, Stade Bordelais (France); Mahalia Robinson, Fulford, Que., Town of Mount Royal RFC; Olivia Apps, Lindsay, Ont., Lindsay RFC; Paige Farries, Red Deer, Alta., Saracens (England); Sara Kaljuvee, Ajax, Ont., Westshore RFC; Shoshanah Seumanutafa, White Rock, B.C., Counties Manukau (New Zealand); Taylor Perry, Oakville, Ont., Exeter Chiefs (England).

—

Follow @NeilMDavidson on X platform, formerly known as Twitter

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.



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Vancouver Canucks star goalie Thatcher Demko working through rare muscle injury

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12 mins ago

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September 19, 2024

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PENTICTON, B.C. – Vancouver Canucks goalie Thatcher Demko says he’s been working his way back from a rare lower-body muscle injury since being sidelined in last season’s playoffs.

The 28-year-old all star says the rehabilitation process has been frustrating, but he has made good progress in recent weeks and is confident he’ll be able to return to playing.

He says he and his medical team have spent the last few months talking to specialists around the world, and have not found a single other hockey player who has dealt with the same injury.

Demko missed several weeks of the last season with a knee ailment and played just one game in Vancouver’s playoff run last spring before going down with the current injury.

He was not on the ice with his teammates as the Canucks started training camp in Penticton, B.C., on Thursday, but skated on his own before the sessions began.

Demko posted a 35-14-2 record with a .918 percentage, a 2.45 goals-against average and five shutouts for Vancouver last season.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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