Real eState

The Commercial Real Estate Market: Crash, Train Wreck, Or Apocalypse? – Forbes

Published

2 years ago

September 27, 2022

Dire warnings about commercial real estate appear almost daily these days. While office markets are stressed due to increased working from home, some real estate professionals see an increasingly bifurcated market, divided “into haves and have-nots.” Investors, renters, and cities—especially those with older, declining buildings— will need to pay close attention in the coming months to see where they fall and how bad things might get.

Dramatic negative evaluations of commercial real estate are easily found. The San Francisco Standard foresees an “epic commercial real estate crash” looming over that city, comparing it to an approaching train with “the city, its budget, and its ability to provide services tied to the tracks.” Not to be outdone, Bloomberg tweeted “remote work is killing Manhattan’s commercial real estate market” with similar problems extending to other cities.

But even that language pales against what NYU professor Arpit Gupta and his colleagues are saying, predicting an “office real estate apocalypse.” Using New York City data, they estimate “a 45% decline in office values in 2020 and 39% in the longer run, the latter representing a $453 billion value deduction,” which could plunge the city into a “fiscal doom loop.” Similar damage could hit other cities, and by extension the national economy.

How then do we make sense of other bad—but not apocalyptic—data? CommercialEdge’s monthly “National Office Report” for September found stagnant average office listing rates, $38.70 per square foot, “down 0.1% year-over-year.” Bad, but not apocalyptic. And as I recently noted, some cities, especially in the Sunbelt or those with strong life sciences industries, are seeing strong rental markets.

What do other data tell us? Moody’s documented that securities backed by commercial mortgages saw “a huge spike in elevated delinquency rates” in the second quarter of 2020, right when the pandemic hit. But banks, life insurance investors, and others restructured loans and offered forbearance, lessening their delinquency rates. That strategy will be harder to follow if new pressure comes on the office market, especially with the Fed raising interest rates, making borrowing more costly across the board.

So far, at least commercial banks now seem to have their real estate loans under control. Their charge-off and delinquency rates hit 0.07% in the second quarter of 2020, the height of the pandemic. But in the first two quarters of 2022, the Fed reports those rates at zero, not a signal of dramatic falls in loan quality.

And even 2020’s bad numbers were nothing like the 2008 financial crisis. Between 2009 and 2010, commercial bank loan delinquencies were over 2% for seven consecutive quarters. Tighter regulation has since helped control loose bank lending, so thankfully we don’t have signs that commercial lending failures are pulling down the entire economy.

Going behind the aggregate numbers shows some positive signs in commercial real estate. In the past year, Sunbelt cities like Charlotte and Austin, or cities with concentrations of life sciences like Boston, saw double-digit increases in rents. Google
GOOG
and other tech firms have been leasing large amounts of space in cities like New York and Chicago.

The biggest risk in commercial real estate is older, less desirable office space. The amount of that in any city is central to assessing its overall risk. A magazine roundtable from PERE, which tracks private equity real estate investing, found a “very challenged” but uncertain market, with risks ranging from inflation in construction and financing costs to a looming recession.

PERE’s experts see a “bifurcated” market, with more modern buildings (especially those that are ESG compliant) and some cities in good position to weather the crisis. The PERE investors see a “new normal” with less full-time office occupancy, but with offices still facing “unknown” overall demand from clients.

But these the views of real estate investors, who could be (as they say on the Street), “talking their book” and putting a positive spin on the numbers. In contrast, consider the “apocalypse” analysis from NYU and Columbia professors. By combining working from home data with financial information from real estate investment trusts (REITs) other financial information, they predict “long-run office valuations that are 39.18% below pre-pandemic levels” with “lower quality office stock…a more substantially stranded asset.”

If they are right, cities—and the economy—are in for a rough ride. Although some older buildings might be converted into housing, that’s not an easy or immediate process. Collapsing real estate values could lead to substantial fiscal problems for many cities, resulting in cuts to social services, education, public health, and other essential government functions. We aren’t in an apocalypse yet, but we all need to keep one eye on the possibility.

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Real eState

Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

Published

6 days ago

November 6, 2024

Anne Joseph

TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

Published

3 weeks ago

October 24, 2024

Anne Joseph

HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

Published

4 weeks ago

October 17, 2024

Anne Joseph

Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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