Bitcoin is growing up. The original cryptocurrency turns 13 this year and is showing signs of becoming a more mature financial asset – but watch out for the teenage tantrums.
This drift towards the mainstream, driven by the big bets of institutional investors, has seen bitcoin become sensitive to interest rates and fuelled a sell-off in the coin this month as investors braced for a hawkish Federal Reserve policy meeting.
The cryptocurrency, born in 2009, was still on the fringes of finance during the Fed’s previous tightening cycle, from 2016 to 2019, and was barely correlated with the stock market.
Times have changed.
Bitcoin has been positively correlated with the S&P 500 index since early 2020, according to Refinitiv data, meaning they broadly move up and down together. Their correlation coefficient has risen to 0.41 now from 0.1 in September, where zero means no correlation and 1 implies perfectly synchronised movement.
By contrast, that coefficient was just 0.01 in 2017-2019, according to an International Monetary Fund analysis published this month.
“Now that bitcoin is not entirely held by early adopters, it’s sitting in a 60/40 type portfolio,” said Ben McMillan, chief investment officer of Arizona-based IDX Digital Assets, referring to the institutional strategy of allocating 60% of a portfolio to relatively risky equities and 40% towards bonds.
“It’s not surprising that it’s starting to trade with a lot more sensitivity to interest rates.”
Bitcoin closed below the $40,000-mark for the first time since August 2021 on Friday, some way off its November peak of $69,000.
The crypto market is increasingly being characterised by big investors, rather than the smaller retail players who drove its early movements.
The total assets under management of institutionally focused crypto investment products rose in 2021 from $36 billion in January to $58 billion in December, according to data provider CryptoCompare.
On top of this, there was bumper buying from the corporate likes of Tesla and MicroStrategy, plus hedge funds adding crypto to their portfolios.
“The cryptocurrency ecosystem grew from a total market valuation of $767 billion at the start of the year to $2.22 trillion by the end of the year,” CryptoCompare said.
The drift towards mainstream finance raises broader questions in 2022 and beyond about whether bitcoin can retain its role as a diversification play and hedge against inflation.
IMF researchers said that bitcoin’s increasing correlation with stocks limited its “perceived risk diversification benefits and raises the risk of contagion across financial markets”.
Bitcoin is also often regarded as a hedge against inflation, mainly due to its limited supply akin to gold, the more-established store of value in an inflationary environment. However, its correlation with stocks has seen it become increasingly roiled along with broader markets by the largest annual rise in U.S. inflation in nearly four decades.
“In the current case, bitcoin is not acting as an inflation hedge. Bitcoin is acting as a risk-proxy,” said Nicholas Cawley, strategist at DailyFX, based in London.
Jeff Dorman, CIO at digital asset management firm Arca in Los Angeles, added: “It is also a tad ironic given that the bull case for many digital assets in spring 2020 was expectations for higher inflation. Now that we actually have inflation, it is weighing on prices.”
GRAPHIC: Bitcoin and traditional inflation hedges, https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/lbpgnjkjwvq/Pasted%20image%201643025317392.png
‘WAITING FOR HIGHER PRICES’
Evidence of investors increasingly holding onto bitcoin for the long-haul https://www.reuters.com/technology/bitcoin-investors-dig-long-haul-staggering-shift-2022-01-17 is growing.
Kraken Intelligence, a research blog from cryptocurrency exchange Kraken, said that about 60% of all bitcoin in circulation hadn’t changed hands in over one year, the highest level since December 2020.
Meanwhile funding rates for perpetual swaps across major exchanges – indicative of sentiment among investors betting on bitcoin’s future price movements – were fairly flat, hovering around 0.01%, as per data platform Coinglass.
Positive rates imply that traders are bullish, as they must pay to hold a long position, while negative rates mean traders must pay to hold a short position, or bet on the price falling.
Investors are displaying a notable unwillingness to spend coins, according to blockchain data provider Glassnode.
“In the face of tumultuous and unconvincing price action, this signals that this cohort of holders are patiently waiting for higher prices to spend their respective supply,” it said.
(Reporting by Lisa Pauline Mattackal and Medha Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Vidya Ranganathan and Pravin Char)
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was down more than 200 points in late-morning trading, weighed down by losses in the technology, base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets also fell.
The S&P/TSX composite index was down 239.24 points at 22,749.04.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 312.36 points at 40,443.39. The S&P 500 index was down 80.94 points at 5,422.47, while the Nasdaq composite was down 380.17 points at 16,747.49.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.80 cents US compared with 74.00 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down US$1.07 at US$68.08 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up less than a penny at US$2.26 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was down US$2.10 at US$2,541.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was down four cents at US$4.10 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in technology, financial and energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also pushed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 171.41 points at 23,298.39.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 278.37 points at 41,369.79. The S&P 500 index was up 38.17 points at 5,630.35, while the Nasdaq composite was up 177.15 points at 17,733.18.
The Canadian dollar traded for 74.19 cents US compared with 74.23 cents US on Wednesday.
The October crude oil contract was up US$1.75 at US$76.27 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up less than a penny at US$2.10 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$18.70 at US$2,556.50 an ounce and the December copper contract was down less than a penny at US$4.22 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 29, 2024.
The crypto market has recently experienced a significant downturn, mirroring broader risk asset sell-offs. Over the past week, Bitcoin’s price dropped by 24%, reaching $53,000, while Ethereum plummeted nearly a third to $2,340. Major altcoins also suffered, with Cardano down 27.7%, Solana 36.2%, Dogecoin 34.6%, XRP 23.1%, Shiba Inu 30.1%, and BNB 25.7%.
The severe downturn in the crypto market appears to be part of a broader flight to safety, triggered by disappointing economic data. A worse-than-expected unemployment report on Friday marked the beginning of a technical recession, as defined by the Sahm Rule. This rule identifies a recession when the three-month average unemployment rate rises by at least half a percentage point from its lowest point in the past year.
Friday’s figures met this threshold, signaling an abrupt economic downshift. Consequently, investors sought safer assets, leading to declines in major stock indices: the S&P 500 dropped 2%, the Nasdaq 2.5%, and the Dow 1.5%. This trend continued into Monday with further sell-offs overseas.
The crypto market’s rapid decline raises questions about its role as either a speculative asset or a hedge against inflation and recession. Despite hopes that crypto could act as a risk hedge, the recent crash suggests it remains a speculative investment.
Since the downturn, the crypto market has seen its largest three-day sell-off in nearly a year, losing over $500 billion in market value. According to CoinGlass data, this bloodbath wiped out more than $1 billion in leveraged positions within the last 24 hours, including $365 million in Bitcoin and $348 million in Ether.
Khushboo Khullar of Lightning Ventures, speaking to Bloomberg, argued that the crypto sell-off is part of a broader liquidity panic as traders rush to cover margin calls. Khullar views this as a temporary sell-off, presenting a potential buying opportunity.
Josh Gilbert, an eToro market analyst, supports Khullar’s perspective, suggesting that the expected Federal Reserve rate cuts could benefit crypto assets. “Crypto assets have sold off, but many investors will see an opportunity. We see Federal Reserve rate cuts, which are now likely to come sharper than expected, as hugely positive for crypto assets,” Gilbert told Coindesk.
Despite the recent volatility, crypto continues to make strides toward mainstream acceptance. Notably, Morgan Stanley will allow its advisors to offer Bitcoin ETFs starting Wednesday. This follows more than half a year after the introduction of the first Bitcoin ETF. The investment bank will enable over 15,000 of its financial advisors to sell BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC. This move is seen as a significant step toward the “mainstreamization” of crypto, given the lengthy regulatory and company processes in major investment banks.
The recent crypto market downturn highlights its volatility and the broader economic concerns affecting all risk assets. While some analysts see the current situation as a temporary sell-off and a buying opportunity, others caution against the speculative nature of crypto. As the market evolves, its role as a mainstream alternative asset continues to grow, marked by increasing institutional acceptance and new investment opportunities.
