The Economy Doesn’t Need The Fed’s Easy Monetary Policy To Keep Booming, BofA Says - Forbes | Canada News Media
Connect with us

Economy

The Economy Doesn’t Need The Fed’s Easy Monetary Policy To Keep Booming, BofA Says – Forbes

Published

 on


Topline

Concerns are rising that the Federal Reserve’s eventual withdrawal of its unprecedented support from the U.S. economy will dampen the major boom experts are expecting at the end of this year as the economy reopens, but Bank of America says you shouldn’t worry just yet. Here’s why.

Key Facts

First, there’s a lot more stimulus spending ahead as the Biden Administration prepares to unveil a multitrillion-dollar infrastructure plan, the experts say, not the mention the fact that much of the funding from the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan and preceding stimulus bills is continuing to work its way through the economy.

Second, the Fed has repeatedly signaled that it will not raise interest rates anytime soon—and when it does, it will do so slowly and with plenty of advance warning.

Many investors fear that the inflationary pressures likely to come along with the recovery boom could force the Fed to withdraw support more quickly and rattle markets, adding even more instability to an already precarious situation.

Bank of America’s experts don’t expect the Fed to touch interest rates until the end of 2023, even if inflation rises above its 2% target, and they expect the Fed to wait until next year before easing off of its pandemic bond-buying program.

Last, Bank of America argues that after a downturn, a recovery tends to build enough momentum to be self-sustaining even after fiscal and monetary support dries up.

Crucial Quote

“While we welcome these positive developments, no one should be complacent,” Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said last week, referring to the fact that the economic recovery is progressing much faster than many expected, especially when it comes to household spending, manufacturing and the housing market. “At the Fed, we will continue to provide the economy the support it needs for as long as it takes.

Big Number

$1.6 trillion. That’s how much extra money households saved last year thanks to business closures, restrictions and lockdowns. Experts expect some—but not all—of those excess savings to help fuel a dramatic uptick in consumer spending later this year.

Tangent

In another sign of confidence in the recovery, the Federal Reserve announced Thursday that it will end restrictions on dividend payments and share repurchases for most banks on June 30. The restrictions were put in place last year to ensure that banks had enough capital on hand to see them through the coronavirus crisis.

Key Background

The U.S. economy contracted 3.5% in 2020 as the coronavirus pandemic forced business closures and lockdowns and left millions unemployed, but a robust vaccine program and the recent passage of President Biden’s $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan led the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development to predict 6.5% GDP growth in 2021. 

Further Reading

$1,400 Stimulus Checks Are Already Working As Credit, Debit Spending Surges 45%, BofA Says (Forbes)

Covid-19 Recession: 10 Important Numbers That Sum Up America’s Economic Crisis One Year Later (Forbes)

Powell And Yellen Praise Aggressive Stimulus Spending, Acknowledge Incomplete Economic Recovery In Congressional Testimony (Forbes)

Federal Reserve Looking Ahead To Higher Inflation As Economy Rebounds, But It Won’t Raise Rates Yet (Forbes)

Let’s block ads! (Why?)



Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

Statistics Canada reports wholesale sales higher in July

Published

 on

 

OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.

The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.

The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.

The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.

In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.

Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

B.C.’s debt and deficit forecast to rise as the provincial election nears

Published

 on

 

VICTORIA – British Columbia is forecasting a record budget deficit and a rising debt of almost $129 billion less than two weeks before the start of a provincial election campaign where economic stability and future progress are expected to be major issues.

Finance Minister Katrine Conroy, who has announced her retirement and will not seek re-election in the Oct. 19 vote, said Tuesday her final budget update as minister predicts a deficit of $8.9 billion, up $1.1 billion from a forecast she made earlier this year.

Conroy said she acknowledges “challenges” facing B.C., including three consecutive deficit budgets, but expected improved economic growth where the province will start to “turn a corner.”

The $8.9 billion deficit forecast for 2024-2025 is followed by annual deficit projections of $6.7 billion and $6.1 billion in 2026-2027, Conroy said at a news conference outlining the government’s first quarterly financial update.

Conroy said lower corporate income tax and natural resource revenues and the increased cost of fighting wildfires have had some of the largest impacts on the budget.

“I want to acknowledge the economic uncertainties,” she said. “While global inflation is showing signs of easing and we’ve seen cuts to the Bank of Canada interest rates, we know that the challenges are not over.”

Conroy said wildfire response costs are expected to total $886 million this year, more than $650 million higher than originally forecast.

Corporate income tax revenue is forecast to be $638 million lower as a result of federal government updates and natural resource revenues are down $299 million due to lower prices for natural gas, lumber and electricity, she said.

Debt-servicing costs are also forecast to be $344 million higher due to the larger debt balance, the current interest rate and accelerated borrowing to ensure services and capital projects are maintained through the province’s election period, said Conroy.

B.C.’s economic growth is expected to strengthen over the next three years, but the timing of a return to a balanced budget will fall to another minister, said Conroy, who was addressing what likely would be her last news conference as Minister of Finance.

The election is expected to be called on Sept. 21, with the vote set for Oct. 19.

“While we are a strong province, people are facing challenges,” she said. “We have never shied away from taking those challenges head on, because we want to keep British Columbians secure and help them build good lives now and for the long term. With the investments we’re making and the actions we’re taking to support people and build a stronger economy, we’ve started to turn a corner.”

Premier David Eby said before the fiscal forecast was released Tuesday that the New Democrat government remains committed to providing services and supports for people in British Columbia and cuts are not on his agenda.

Eby said people have been hurt by high interest costs and the province is facing budget pressures connected to low resource prices, high wildfire costs and struggling global economies.

The premier said that now is not the time to reduce supports and services for people.

Last month’s year-end report for the 2023-2024 budget saw the province post a budget deficit of $5.035 billion, down from the previous forecast of $5.9 billion.

Eby said he expects government financial priorities to become a major issue during the upcoming election, with the NDP pledging to continue to fund services and the B.C. Conservatives looking to make cuts.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

Note to readers: This is a corrected story. A previous version said the debt would be going up to more than $129 billion. In fact, it will be almost $129 billion.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

Mark Carney mum on carbon-tax advice, future in politics at Liberal retreat

Published

 on

 

NANAIMO, B.C. – Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says he’ll be advising the Liberal party to flip some the challenges posed by an increasingly divided and dangerous world into an economic opportunity for Canada.

But he won’t say what his specific advice will be on economic issues that are politically divisive in Canada, like the carbon tax.

He presented his vision for the Liberals’ economic policy at the party’s caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C. today, after he agreed to help the party prepare for the next election as chair of a Liberal task force on economic growth.

Carney has been touted as a possible leadership contender to replace Justin Trudeau, who has said he has tried to coax Carney into politics for years.

Carney says if the prime minister asks him to do something he will do it to the best of his ability, but won’t elaborate on whether the new adviser role could lead to him adding his name to a ballot in the next election.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says she has been taking advice from Carney for years, and that his new position won’t infringe on her role.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Exit mobile version