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The economy is 'like a coiled spring' and a sharp rebound is possible, analysts predict – CNBC

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Investors should avoid getting too bearish after Monday’s global market rout, according to Patrick Armstrong, chief investment officer of Plurimi Investment Managers.

Markets in Europe and the U.S. suffered their worst day since the financial crisis on Monday as a combination of the global spread of the new coronavirus and plunging oil prices sent investors running for cover.

The U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world have already implemented interest rate cuts in a bid to temper the economic fallout from the virus outbreak, but Armstrong insisted that the “will of policymakers is incredibly strong.”

Following the Fed’s 50 basis point (bps) emergency cut on March 3., Berenberg Chief Economist Holger Schmieding is now projecting a “serious easing package” from the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday, a 50bps cut from the Bank of England this month and another 50bps cut from the Fed by March 18, along with a further 25bps in the second quarter.

However, monetary policy easing alone in many of the major economies is expected to have a somewhat diminished impact, at least in the short-term, due to the impact of the coronavirus on economic growth, as highlighted by UBS analysts in a note Tuesday.

“In our view it is therefore a step change in fiscal spending from major economies that holds the key to reinvigorating growth expectations and improving investor confidence,” the note said.

Fiscal stimulus is coming

Armstrong added that in combination with more dovish monetary policy, fiscal stimulus is on the way. U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday floated a payroll tax cut in the hope of offsetting the negative impact of the virus.

“We’ve got a virus that has a big impact on the economy, it is going to decimate corporate earnings in some sectors, but what it’s doing is temporary,” Armstrong told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Tuesday.

“The economy is going to be like a coiled spring, in that we’ve got interest rates at zero, we’re going to have fiscal stimulus, we’ve got long bonds at zero, we’ve got oil prices that have fallen by 30% in the last day, so those are all of the ingredients you want to kickstart an economy once we do get past this crisis of confidence.”

In a note Tuesday, Schmieding predicted that Wednesday’s U.K. Budget will involve fiscal stimulus of around 1.0% of GDP (gross domestic product), with Germany set to raise its stimulus from 0.4% to circa 0.6% for 2020.

“The medical emergency gives countries including Italy space to raise spending and offer targeted relief to stricken companies and households,” he added.

“The plunge in most sovereign bond yields lowers financing costs for many economies and enhances the fiscal space of many governments. We also expect the US Congress to set partisan politics aside for once and pass a substantial fiscal package soon.”

Temporary shock

Despite the current panic surrounding its rapid global spread, which has now led Italy to enter total lockdown, Armstrong projected that in 12 months, coronavirus would no longer be “headline news” and a vaccine would have been found.

“I think investors are treating it like an end-of-the-world event almost, where it is a temporary short-term setback for the economy,” he said.

On Monday, Plurimi did not buy any equities, but sold the 30-year Treasury bonds in its long-only portfolio and purchased some corporate bonds.

UBS analysts also offered some cause for optimism, suggesting that if policymakers are able to ward off contagion and recession, there is scope for a “very sharp rebound in economic growth and in risk assets given the benefits of loose monetary policy and a low oil price.”

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Construction wraps on indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs in Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.

Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.

The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.

“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.

“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”

Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.

The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.

The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.

Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.

More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.

Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.

“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.

Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.

“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.

Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.

Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.

Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”

“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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N.B. election: Parties’ answers on treaty rights, taxes, Indigenous participation

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FREDERICTON – The six chiefs of the Wolastoqey Nation in New Brunswick distributed a survey on Indigenous issues to political parties ahead of the provincial election, which is scheduled to kick off Thursday. Here are some of the answers from the Progressive Conservative, Liberal and Green parties.

Q: How does your party plan to demonstrate a renewed commitment to recognizing our joint treaty responsibilities and acknowledging that the lands and waters of this territory remain unceded?

Progressive Conservative: The party respectfully disagrees with the assertion that land title has been unceded. This is a legal question that has not been determined by the courts.

Liberal: When we form government, the first conversations the premier-designate will have is with First Nations leaders. We will publicly and explicitly acknowledge your treaty rights, and our joint responsibility as treaty people.

Green: The Green Party acknowledges that New Brunswick is situated on the unceded and unsurrendered territories of the Wolastoqiyik, Mi’kmaq and Peskotomuhkati peoples, covered by the Treaties of Peace and Friendship. Our party is committed to establishing true nation-to-nation relationships with First Nations, grounded in mutual respect and co-operation as the treaties intended.

Q: How does your party propose to approach the issue of provincial tax agreements with First Nations?

Progressive Conservative: The government of New Brunswick operates in a balanced and fair manner with all organizations, institutions and local governments that represent the citizens of this province, including First Nations. Therefore, we cannot offer tax agreements that do not demonstrate a benefit to all citizens.

Liberal: Recent discussions with First Nations chiefs shed light on the gaps that existed in the previous provincial tax agreements with First Nations. Our party is committed to negotiating and establishing new tax agreements with First Nations that address the local needs and priorities and ensure all parties have a fair deal.

Green: The Green Party is committed to fostering a respectful relationship with First Nations in New Brunswick and strongly opposes Premier Blaine Higgs’s decision to end tax-sharing agreements. We believe reinstating these agreements is crucial for supporting the economic development and job creation in First Nation communities.

Q: How will your party ensure more meaningful participation of Indigenous communities in provincial land use and resource management decision-making?

Progressive Conservative: The government of New Brunswick has invested significant resources in developing a robust duty to consult and engagement process. We are interested in fully involving First Nations in the development of natural resources, including natural gas development. We believe that the development of natural gas is better for the environment — because it allows for the shutdown of coal-fired power plants all over the globe — and it allows for a meaningful step along the path to reconciliation.

Liberal: Our party is focused on building strong relations with First Nations and their representatives based on mutual respect and a nation-to-nation relationship, with a shared understanding of treaty obligations and a recognition of your rights. This includes having First Nations at the table and engaged on all files, including land-use and resource management.

Green: We will develop a new Crown lands management framework with First Nations, focusing on shared management that respects the Peace and Friendship Treaties. We will enhance consultation by developing parameters for meaningful consultation with First Nations that will include a dispute resolution mechanism, so the courts become the last resort, not the default in the face of disagreements.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Canadian Coast Guard crew member lost at sea off Newfoundland

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ST. JOHN’S, N.L. – A crew member of a Canadian Coast Guard ship has been lost at sea off southern Newfoundland.

The agency said in a release Wednesday that an extensive search and rescue effort for the man was ended Tuesday evening.

He was reported missing on Monday morning when the CCGS Vincent Massey arrived in St. John’s, N.L.

The coast guard says there was an “immediate” search on the vessel for the crew member and when he wasn’t located the sea and air search began.

Wednesday’s announcement said the agency was “devastated to confirm” the crew member had been lost at sea, adding that decisions to end searches are “never taken lightly.”

The coast guard says the employee was last seen on board Sunday evening as the vessel sailed along the northeast coast of Newfoundland.

Spokeswoman Kariane Charron says no other details are being provided at this time and that the RCMP will be investigating the matter as a missing person case.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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