The Economy Is Sluggish But Poised To Return To Positive Growth - Forbes | Canada News Media
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The Economy Is Sluggish But Poised To Return To Positive Growth – Forbes

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Various forecasts for GDP growth in the September quarter hover between 1% to 3%, with the New York Fed an outlier at 3.8%. This is after the first quarter’s GDP fell 1.6% and the June quarter’s estimate currently at a negative 0.6%.

Trading Economics provides historical data and forecasts for more than 20 million economic indicators, exchange rates, stock market indexes, government bond yields and commodity prices for 196 countries. The data is based on official sources, not third party data providers.

Its estimates for U.S. GDP growth are:

  • 3Q 2022: 2.8%
  • 4Q 2022: 2.5%
  • 1Q 2023: 2.0%
  • 2Q 2023: 1.8%

Real-time Index has been pretty flat over four months

Jefferies has developed a “U.S. Economic Activity Index” that attempts to understand how the economy is doing in real-time. It includes national transit use, auto congestion, flight activity, job listings, web traffic to unemployment portals, time clocked by hourly workers, foot traffic to consumer discretionary verticals, retail web traffic, restaurant bookings, mortgage applications, railroad traffic, steel production, and petroleum supply.

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As can be seen in the chart below the Index has ranged 95 to 100 since March and between 95 to 98 since late April. These readings tend to support a low economic growth rate.

Federal Reserve growth rates range from 0.9% to 3.8%

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta publishes data and a graph that estimates the GDP growth rate of the current quarter. It also includes the top and bottom 10 forecasts from the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and Blue Chip Financial Forecasts. Keep in mind the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow projection is based on a formula from previous quarters’ GDP and the impact of Covid-19 could still be having a material influence on its estimate.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is showing the September quarter to have 1.6% growth compared to the Blue Chip consensus range of negative 0.3% to a positive 2.7%. The Blue Chip mid-point is 1.2%.

The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis has a Real GDP forecast that is updated once a week. Its current projection for the September quarter is 0.9%.

And lastly, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s most recent estimate is 3.8%.

Personal spending remains in positive territory

Tuan Nguyen, Economist at U.S. RSM, believes that, “While the economy is slowing down, it is still on strong footing given strong job gains, business investments, corporate profits and excess savings.” One of the reasons is due to personal spending still in positive territory, which is helped by falling energy prices.

What could swing September quarter’s GDP growth rate

There are four major segments to calculate GDP growth; Personal Consumption, Domestic Investment, Trade and Government spending. Two of the more volatile ones are Inventory changes under the Domestic Investment segment and Trade.

While these two can swing in any given quarter or for a few quarters, they come close to zeroing out over multiple quarters. Since 2011 to 2021 on a yearly basis Inventories have ranged from subtracting 0.55% to adding 0.35% to GDP growth. Trade has ranged from subtracting 1.4% to adding 0.22%.

Over the past four quarters:

Inventories

  • 3Q 2021: Added 2.2% to GDP’s growth rate
  • 4Q 2021: Added 5.32%
  • 1Q 2022: Subtracted 0.35%
  • 2Q 2022: Subtracted 1.83%
  • Four quarter total: Added 5.34% to GDP’s growth rate

Trade

  • 3Q 2021: Subtracted 1.26% to GDP’s growth rate
  • 4Q 2021: Subtracted 0.23%
  • 1Q 2022: Subtracted 3.23%
  • 2Q 2022: Added 1.42%
  • Four quarter total: Subtracted 3.3% to GDP’s growth rate

Therefore, these two segments could throw the total GDP growth rate into positive or negative territory so their impacts need to be taken into account.

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Construction wraps on indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs in Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.

Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.

The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.

“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.

“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”

Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.

The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.

The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.

Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.

More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.

Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.

“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.

Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.

“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.

Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.

Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.

Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”

“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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N.B. election: Parties’ answers on treaty rights, taxes, Indigenous participation

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FREDERICTON – The six chiefs of the Wolastoqey Nation in New Brunswick distributed a survey on Indigenous issues to political parties ahead of the provincial election, which is scheduled to kick off Thursday. Here are some of the answers from the Progressive Conservative, Liberal and Green parties.

Q: How does your party plan to demonstrate a renewed commitment to recognizing our joint treaty responsibilities and acknowledging that the lands and waters of this territory remain unceded?

Progressive Conservative: The party respectfully disagrees with the assertion that land title has been unceded. This is a legal question that has not been determined by the courts.

Liberal: When we form government, the first conversations the premier-designate will have is with First Nations leaders. We will publicly and explicitly acknowledge your treaty rights, and our joint responsibility as treaty people.

Green: The Green Party acknowledges that New Brunswick is situated on the unceded and unsurrendered territories of the Wolastoqiyik, Mi’kmaq and Peskotomuhkati peoples, covered by the Treaties of Peace and Friendship. Our party is committed to establishing true nation-to-nation relationships with First Nations, grounded in mutual respect and co-operation as the treaties intended.

Q: How does your party propose to approach the issue of provincial tax agreements with First Nations?

Progressive Conservative: The government of New Brunswick operates in a balanced and fair manner with all organizations, institutions and local governments that represent the citizens of this province, including First Nations. Therefore, we cannot offer tax agreements that do not demonstrate a benefit to all citizens.

Liberal: Recent discussions with First Nations chiefs shed light on the gaps that existed in the previous provincial tax agreements with First Nations. Our party is committed to negotiating and establishing new tax agreements with First Nations that address the local needs and priorities and ensure all parties have a fair deal.

Green: The Green Party is committed to fostering a respectful relationship with First Nations in New Brunswick and strongly opposes Premier Blaine Higgs’s decision to end tax-sharing agreements. We believe reinstating these agreements is crucial for supporting the economic development and job creation in First Nation communities.

Q: How will your party ensure more meaningful participation of Indigenous communities in provincial land use and resource management decision-making?

Progressive Conservative: The government of New Brunswick has invested significant resources in developing a robust duty to consult and engagement process. We are interested in fully involving First Nations in the development of natural resources, including natural gas development. We believe that the development of natural gas is better for the environment — because it allows for the shutdown of coal-fired power plants all over the globe — and it allows for a meaningful step along the path to reconciliation.

Liberal: Our party is focused on building strong relations with First Nations and their representatives based on mutual respect and a nation-to-nation relationship, with a shared understanding of treaty obligations and a recognition of your rights. This includes having First Nations at the table and engaged on all files, including land-use and resource management.

Green: We will develop a new Crown lands management framework with First Nations, focusing on shared management that respects the Peace and Friendship Treaties. We will enhance consultation by developing parameters for meaningful consultation with First Nations that will include a dispute resolution mechanism, so the courts become the last resort, not the default in the face of disagreements.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Canadian Coast Guard crew member lost at sea off Newfoundland

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ST. JOHN’S, N.L. – A crew member of a Canadian Coast Guard ship has been lost at sea off southern Newfoundland.

The agency said in a release Wednesday that an extensive search and rescue effort for the man was ended Tuesday evening.

He was reported missing on Monday morning when the CCGS Vincent Massey arrived in St. John’s, N.L.

The coast guard says there was an “immediate” search on the vessel for the crew member and when he wasn’t located the sea and air search began.

Wednesday’s announcement said the agency was “devastated to confirm” the crew member had been lost at sea, adding that decisions to end searches are “never taken lightly.”

The coast guard says the employee was last seen on board Sunday evening as the vessel sailed along the northeast coast of Newfoundland.

Spokeswoman Kariane Charron says no other details are being provided at this time and that the RCMP will be investigating the matter as a missing person case.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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