The Economy May Be Slowing, But Recession Fears Are ‘Overblown’ These Experts Argue - Forbes | Canada News Media
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The Economy May Be Slowing, But Recession Fears Are ‘Overblown’ These Experts Argue – Forbes

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Despite the stock market taking a hit in recent months from growing recession fears, some experts still remain cautiously optimistic about the economy’s prospects, predicting that a downturn can be avoided if inflation continues to moderate and consumer spending remains resilient.

Key Facts

Investors have been facing recession warnings ever since the U.S. economy contracted by 1.4% in the first quarter of 2022 but the economic outlook isn’t as dire as it seems.

In fact, a majority of forecasters expect GDP growth of roughly between 2% and 3% in the current quarter, a solid rebound from the previous quarter.

Many experts are warning that the economy is heading for a hard landing as the Fed tries to combat inflation, but the economy is simply slowing rather than shrinking—and will therefore avoid a recession, argues LPL Financial chief economist Jeffrey Roach, who forecasts full-year GDP growth of 2.6%.

Beyond the “anomaly” in first-quarter GDP, the economy has “sufficient momentum” to offset inflationary pressures thanks to the stable U.S. consumer, with inflation likely to continue to moderate during the second half of the year, he says.

“The market bottoming process is often messy and volatile” and negative sentiment is “being overblown,” says Nationwide chief of investment research Mark Hackett, who argues that most economic data still reflects an “encouraging backdrop,” with corporate earnings, consumer spending and fund flows remaining resilient.

The ideal scenario for markets would be a soft landing—where the Fed is able to tame inflation without hurting economic growth—similar to 1994, when the central bank raised rates seven times in 13 months but avoided a recession, Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist for CFRA Research, told Forbes last week.

Key Background:

The U.S. economy grew 5.7% in 2021 after contracting by 3.4% in 2020, when pandemic lockdowns in March led to a brief recession. Since then, stocks have had one of their worst starts to a year on record as rising interest rates, surging inflation and the Russia-Ukraine conflict roiled markets and dented investor confidence. The Dow fell nearly 1% last week—its ninth down week out of the last ten, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both lost over 1% for their eighth negative week out of nine. Despite encouraging manufacturing and jobs data last week, investors sold shares on the news, with good news “again being treated as bad news because of the potential Federal Reserve implications,” says Hackett. “This is complicated by the notable shift in investor behavior from a ‘buy the dip’ mentality last year to a ‘sell the rally’ approach this year.”

What To Watch For:

“The growing threat of a global recession has raised serious concerns about the future sustainability of corporate profits,” according to a recent note from State Street Global Advisors chief investment strategist Michael Arone. What’s more, global supply shocks “show little signs of abating,” which could put corporate profits under “additional downward pressure.”

Further Reading:

How Does The Market Perform During An Economic Recession? You May Be Surprised (Forbes)

20 Stocks Experts Say Will Help Investors Beat A Bear Market (Forbes)

Experts See Fresh Opportunities In Chinese Stocks With Economic Activity Set To Rebound After Shanghai Reopening (Forbes)

Biden Meets With Fed Chair Powell, Says Fighting Inflation Is ‘Top Economic Priority’ (Forbes)

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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