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The Fed is providing way more help for the markets now than it did during the financial crisis – CNBC

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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testifies before a House Financial Services Committee hearing on the “Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress,” at the Rayburn House Office Building in Washington, U.S., July 18, 2018. 

Mary F. Calvert | Reuters

With its groundbreaking announcement Monday of further forays into the financial markets, the Federal Reserve has indicated it will surpass its response to the financial crisis in terms of timing, intensity and, ultimately, monetary value.

The latter part of that matrix will only be a matter of time as the Fed continues its role in the battle against the coronavirus and its stunning impact on the U.S. economy.

The central bank’s intention to unload almost all of its remaining firepower seems destined to take it beyond the money-printing initiatives of the previous crisis, and its alphabet-soup array of programs is greater in scope than even all the programs it had launched during the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.

When everything is done, the Fed could have a balance sheet, consisting mainly of the bonds it has purchased to support markets and the economy, approaching $10 trillion, according to Krishna Guha, head of global policy and central bank strategy for Evercore ISI.

“As things stand the Fed is racing very quickly towards a $7 trillion balance sheet and our best guesstimate is that it might peak in the very broad vicinity of $9 or $10 trillion,” Guha said in a note to clients. “This is monetized credit policy and fiscal-monetary support on a grand scale.”

The central bank’s efforts in that regard, taken within a month’s time of when the novel coronavirus began chocking financial markets, easily beats the timeline during the financial crisis.

The race to ease

Indeed, the Fed starting in December 2008 increased its bond holdings by $3.7 trillion, pushing the total balance sheet past $4.5 trillion in operations that spanned six years. In a since-abandoned effort to run off some of those holdings, the total slipped below $3.8 trillion at one point. Since the Fed started purchasing assets again, the total has run past $4.7 trillion, the largest in the central bank’s history.

During the crisis, the Fed did not start the so-called quantitative easing program until three months after Lehman Brothers collapsed in September 2015. While its launch of the Troubled Asset Relief Program came shortly after Lehman’s fall, it took six months for other liquidity programs to come online.

The  ambition of the Fed’s current efforts will only grow with Monday’s announcement that the Fed will purchase Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities “in the amounts needed” to support its goals of stabilizing markets.

For some perspective on just how fast the Fed is moving, it intends to purchase $625 billion this week alone. That’s more than the entire $600 billion second leg of quantitative easing that ran for eight months, from November 2010 to June 2011.

Outside of the dollar force of QE, the Fed’s amalgam of programs aimed at freeing up frozen credit markets also is more ambitious than anything it did during the crisis.

Help still needed from Congress

While programs including the Term Asset-Backed Loan Facility and help for the commercial paper and money markets are familiar to financial crisis historians, the Fed has added to its outreach. It now is buying corporate debt for the first time, added commercial mortgage-backed securities to its targeted purchases to help the credit markets, and it expanded the kinds of securities it is accepting as collateral for its liquidity offerings.

Markets, though, are still distressed over the lack of corresponding fiscal stimulus, and stocks sold off aggressively Monday.

But that doesn’t mean the Fed hasn’t done its part — only what it can, at least for now.

“If Congress comes through – which is still our baseline – the combined policy actions should substantially mitigate the risk that the virus shock is amplified by an economy-wide credit shock,” Guha said. “What it will not do is have any great bearing on how long the virus shuts down the economy.”

To underline the importance of getting fiscal and monetary forces working together, the Fed announced a vague proposal targeted to Main Street small business lending that will need help from whatever Congress passes.

“The Fed package is impressive. It’s also necessary, but probably not sufficient,” said Lauren Goodwin, economist and multi-asset portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments. “The real challenge faced by the economy is the fact that businesses are closed. That’s where the federal government needs to step in.”

The Fed, though, might not necessarily be done.

Though it went full-throttle Monday, the central bank has consistently defied critics who say it is running out of ammunition by continuing to come up with new ideas.

The final horizon would be buying stocks and even high-yield corporate bonds, through exchange-traded funds that back big indexes like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average. There’s no sign that the Fed is headed in that direction, but is one final blast it could sound if markets get into too much trouble. The Fed would need permission from Congress first.

“There’s a reason why the government has not wanted this perception of the central bank owning risk assets in the past,” Goodwin said. “But if a liquidity crisis starts to turn into a solvency crisis and we still don’t have that fiscal activity coming in to support the economy, then yes, I think you could continue to see the Fed be creative.”

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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