The US Fed's path to a 'Goldilocks' economy just got a little more complicated | Canada News Media
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The US Fed’s path to a ‘Goldilocks’ economy just got a little more complicated

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A ‘help wanted’ sign is displayed in a window of a store in Manhattan on December 02, 2022 in New York City.
Spencer Platt | Getty Images

As far as jobs reports go, November’s wasn’t exactly what the Federal Reserve was looking for.

A higher-than-expected payrolls number and a hot wage reading that was twice what Wall Street had forecast only add to the delicate tightrope walk the Fed has to navigate.

In normal times, a strong jobs market and surging worker paychecks would be considered high-class problems. But as the central bank seeks to stem persistent and troublesome inflation, this is too much of a good thing.

“The Fed can ill afford to take its foot off the gas at this point for fear that inflation expectations will rebound higher,” wrote Jefferies chief financial economist Aneta Markowska in a post-nonfarm payrolls analysis in line with most of Wall Street Friday. “Wage growth remains consistent with inflation near 4%, and it shows how much more work the Fed still needs to do.”

Payrolls grew by 263,000 in November, well ahead of the 200,000 Dow Jones estimate. Wages rose 0.6% on the month, double the estimate, while 12-month average hourly earnings accelerated 5.1%, above the 4.6% forecast.

All of those things together add up to a prescription of more of the same for the Fed — continued interest rate hikes, even if they’re a bit smaller than the three-quarter percentage point per meeting run the central bank has been on since June.

Little effect from policy moves

The numbers would indicate that 3.75 percentage points worth of rate increases have so far had little impact on labor market conditions.

“We really aren’t seeing the impact of the Fed’s policy on the labor market yet, and that’s concerning if the Fed is viewing job growth as a key indicator for their efforts,” said Elizabeth Crofoot, senior economist at Lightcast, a labor market analytics firm.

Much of the Street analysis after the report was viewed through the prism of comments Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made Wednesday. The central bank chief outlined a set of criteria he was watching for clues about when inflation will come down.

Among them were supply chain issues, housing growth, and labor cost, particularly wages. He also went about setting caveats on a few issues, such as his focus on services inflation minus housing, which he thinks will pull back on its own next year.

“The labor market, which is especially important for inflation in core services ex housing, shows only tentative signs of rebalancing, and wage growth remains well above levels that would be consistent with 2 percent inflation over time,” Powell said. “Despite some promising developments, we have a long way to go in restoring price stability.”

In a speech at the Brookings Institution, he said he expected the Fed could cut the size of its rate hikes — the part that markets seemed to hear as grounds for a post-Powell rally. He added that the Fed likely would have to take rates up higher than previously thought and leave them there for an extended period, which was the part the market seemed to ignore.

“The November employment report … is precisely what Chair Powell told us earlier this week he was most worried about,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at SMBC Nikko Securities. “Wages are rising more than productivity, as labor supply continues to shrink. To restore labor demand and supply, monetary policy must become more restrictive and remain there for an extended period.”

The path to ‘Goldilocks’

To be sure, all is not lost.

Powell said he still sees a path to a “soft landing” for the economy. That outcome probably looks something like either no recession or just a shallow one, nevertheless accompanied by an extended period of below-trend growth and at least some upward pressure on unemployment.

Getting there, however, likely will require almost a perfect storm of circumstances: A reduction in labor demand without mass layoffs, continued easing in supply chain bottlenecks, a cessation of hostilities in Ukraine and a reversal in the upward trend of housing costs, particularly rents.

From a pure labor market perspective, that would mean an eventual downshifting to maybe 175,000 new jobs a month — the 2022 average is 392,000 — with annual wage gains in the 3.5% range.

There is some indication the labor market is cooling. The Labor Department’s household survey, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate, showed a decline of 138,000 in those saying they are working. Some economists think the household survey and the establishment survey, which counts jobs rather than workers, could converge soon and show a more muted employment picture.

“The biggest disappointment was the strong wage growth number,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said in an interview. “We’ve been at 5% since the beginning of the year. We’re not going anywhere fast, and that needs to come down. That’s the thing we need to most worry about.”

Still, Zandi said he doubts Powell was too upset over Friday’s numbers.

“The inflation outlook, while very uncertain at best, has a path forward that is consistent with a Goldilocks scenario,” Zandi said. “263,000 vs 200,000 — that’s not a meaningful difference.”

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A timeline of events in the bread price-fixing scandal

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Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.

Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.

Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.

Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.

Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.

Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).

Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.

June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.

Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”

Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.

July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.

Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 250 points, U.S. stock markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 250 points in late-morning trading, led by strength in the base metal and technology sectors, while U.S. stock markets also charged higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 254.62 points at 23,847.22.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 432.77 points at 41,935.87. The S&P 500 index was up 96.38 points at 5,714.64, while the Nasdaq composite was up 486.12 points at 18,059.42.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.68 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was up 89 cents at US$70.77 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down a penny at US2.27 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$9.40 at US$2,608.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.33 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Construction wraps on indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs in Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.

Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.

The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.

“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.

“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”

Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.

The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.

The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.

Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.

More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.

Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.

“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.

Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.

“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.

Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.

Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.

Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”

“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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