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The First Arctic Summer Without Ice Is Coming in Just 15 Years – BNN

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(Bloomberg) — There’s a standard image of the Earth as seen from space that we carry in our heads: vast blue seas, green bands of forests, and frozen white caps on the top and bottom. By the summer of 2035, it may not be accurate. Scientists estimate that in just 15 years Arctic summer sea-ice could disappear for the first time since primitive humans left Africa. 

“The point is, this is happening soon,” says Maria-Vittoria Guarino, an Earth system modeler at the British Antarctic Survey and lead author of a study published earlier this month in the journal Nature Climate Change. “We will have less and less time to get ready for it, or less time to act upon it if we want to do something about it.”

The new research is the latest in a steady stream that has moved up the predicted timeframe for the ice-free Arctic milestone. The amount of sea-ice floating atop the Arctic Ocean at summer’s end has fallen about 13% per decade since 1979. The 13 years with the smallest ice extents on record have all happened over the previous 13 years—and this summer is a sure bet to be No. 14. 

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The 2035 estimate made by Guarino and her colleagues is based on what’s known about past climates. Scientists over the years have assembled evidence about previous eras from chemical traces in ice, rocks, and sediment. The new Arctic study looks specifically at a period 130,000 years ago, called the Last Interglacial. 

That period was 4° Celsius hotter than than the pre-industrial era—a plausible preview of conditions humans are creating for the future. Current warming on average is already around 1°C, and the Arctic is warming more than twice as fast as the rest of the planet.

Guarino’s research joins a debate about the pace of global heating that has drawn in climate scientists this year. Some newly updated models, like the one Guarino’s team used, now suggest that warming will occur much, much faster than previously thought. There remains disagreement among scientists over modeling results that show accelerated warming. But, as Guarino sees it, the fact that at least one of these models with hotter-than-expected results has successfully matched physical evidence from the Last Interglacial period makes it difficult to dismiss the findings. Earlier climate models struggled to match the geological evidence from the Last Interglacial.

Estimates like these come with lots of uncertainty, which leaves open the possibility that ice may stick around longer, according to Zachary Labe, a postdoctoral researcher in Atmospheric Sciences at Colorado State University. “I’m also hesitant to focus on the year 2035 too much,” he says. “It’s challenging to predict the first ice-free Arctic.”

Scientists from North Carolina State University and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration earlier this year used a different model to arrive at a similar 2035 target for the ice-free Arctic summer. By “ice-free,” scientists usually mean an extent of less than 1 million square-kilometers. The lowest it has reached is 3.4 million km² in 2012.

Ge Peng, research scholar on the North Carolina State University team, also noted that unexpected events could alter the timeline. The eruption of a large volcano, which spews chemicals into the atmosphere that block sunlight and lower temperatures, could push the estimates out a few years. 

Whichever summer is the first to lose its sea ice, Peng and her colleagues warn that businesses, governments, and people living in the Arctic need to prepare now for changes in regional geopolitics, transportation, and food availability.

Once the pandemic has lifted, Peng hopes to travel to the still-frozen Arctic and find it the way we imagine it with our eyes closed. “I want to do that soon,” she says, “because I don’t want the sea ice to be gone by the time I take the cruise.”

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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SpaceX launch marks 300th successful booster landing – Phys.org

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Credit: Unsplash/CC0 Public Domain

SpaceX sent up the 30th launch from the Space Coast for the year on the evening of April 23, a mission that also featured the company’s 300th successful booster recovery.

A Falcon 9 rocket carrying 23 of SpaceX’s Starlink internet satellites blasted off at 6:17 p.m. Eastern time from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station’s Space Launch Complex 40.

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The first-stage booster set a milestone of the 300th time a Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy booster made a successful recovery landing, and the 270th time SpaceX has reflown a booster.

This particular booster made its ninth trip to space, a resume that includes one human spaceflight, Crew-6. It made its latest recovery landing downrange on the droneship Just Read the Instructions in the Atlantic Ocean.

The company’s first successful booster recovery came in December 2015, and it has not had a failed booster landing since February 2021.

The current record holder for flights flew 11 days ago making its 20th trip off the .

SpaceX has been responsible for all but two of the launches this year from either Kennedy Space Center or Cape Canaveral with United Launch Alliance having launched the other two.

SpaceX could knock out more launches before the end of the month, putting the Space Coast on pace to hit more than 90 by the end of the year, but the rate of launches by SpaceX is also set to pick up for the remainder of the year with some turnaround times at the Cape’s SLC-40 coming in less than three days.

That could amp up frequency so the Space Coast could surpass 100 launches before the end of the year, with the majority coming from SpaceX. It hosted 72 launches in 2023.

More launches from ULA are on tap as well, though, including the May 6 launch atop an Atlas V rocket of the Boeing CST-100 Starliner with a pair of NASA astronauts to the International Space Station.

ULA is also preparing for the second launch ever of its new Vulcan Centaur rocket, which recently received its second Blue Origin BE-4 engine and is just waiting on the payload, Sierra Space’s Dream Chaser spacecraft, to make its way to the Space Coast.

Blue Origin has its own it wants to launch this year as well, with New Glenn making its debut as early as September, according to SLD 45’s range manifest.

2024 Orlando Sentinel. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

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SpaceX launch marks 300th successful booster landing (2024, April 24)
retrieved 24 April 2024
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Wildlife Wednesday: loons are suffering as water clarity diminishes – Canadian Geographic

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The common loon, that icon of northern wilderness, is under threat from climate change due to declining water clarity. Published earlier this month in the journal Ecology, a study conducted by biologists from Chapman University and Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute in the U.S. has demonstrated the first clear evidence of an effect of climate change on this species whose distinct call is so tied to the soundscape of Canada’s lakes and wetlands.

Through the course of their research, the scientists found that July rainfall results in reduced July water clarify in loon territories in Northern Wisconsin. In turn, this makes it difficult for adult loons to find and capture their prey — mainly small fish — underwater, meaning they are unable to meet their chicks’ metabolic needs. Undernourished, the chicks face higher mortality rates. The consistent foraging techniques used by loons across their range means this impact is likely echoed wherever they are found — from Alaska to Canada to Iceland.

The researchers used Landsat imagery to find that there has been a 25-year consistent decline in water clarity, and during this period, body weights of adult loon and chicks alike have also declined. With July being the month of most rapid growth in young loons, the study also pinpointed water clarity in July as being the greatest predictor of loon body weight. 

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One explanation for why heavier rainfall leads to reduced water clarity is the rain might carry dissolved organic matter into lakes from adjacent streams and shoreline areas. Lawn fertilizers, pet waste and septic system leaks may also be to blame.

The researchers, led by Chapman University professor Walter Piper, hope to use these insights to further conservation efforts for this bird Piper describes as both “so beloved and so poorly understood.”

Return of the king

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Giant prehistoric salmon had tusk-like teeth for defence, building nests

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The artwork and publicity materials showcasing a giant salmon that lived five million years ago were ready to go to promote a new exhibit, when the discovery of two fossilized skulls immediately changed what researchers knew about the fish.

Initial fossil discoveries of the 2.7-metre-long salmon in Oregon in the 1970s were incomplete and had led researchers to mistakenly suggest the fish had fang-like teeth.

It was dubbed the “sabre-toothed salmon” and became a kind of mascot for the Museum of Natural and Cultural History at the University of Oregon, says researcher Edward Davis.

But then came discovery of two skulls in 2014.

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Davis, a member of the team that found the skulls, says it wasn’t until they got back to the lab that he realized the significance of the discovery that has led to the renaming of the fish in a new, peer-reviewed study.

“There were these two skulls staring at me with sideways teeth,” says Davis, an associate professor in the department of earth sciences at the university.

In that position, the tusk-like teeth could not have been used for biting, he says.

“That was definitely a surprising moment,” says Davis, who serves as director of the Condon Fossil Collection at the university’s Museum of Natural and Cultural History.

“I realized that all of the artwork and all of the publicity materials and bumper stickers and buttons and T-shirts we had just made two months prior, for the new exhibit, were all out of date,” he says with a laugh.

Davis is co-author of the new study in the journal PLOS One, which renames the giant fish the “spike-toothed salmon.”

It says the salmon used the tusk-like spikes for building nests to spawn, and as defence mechanisms against predators and other salmon.

The salmon lived about five million years ago at a time when Earth was transitioning from warmer to relatively cooler conditions, Davis says.

It’s hard to know exactly why the relatives of today’s sockeye went extinct, but Davis says the cooler conditions would have affected the productivity of the Pacific Ocean and the amount of rain feeding rivers that served as their spawning areas.

Another co-author, Brian Sidlauskas, says a fish the size of the spike-toothed salmon must have been targeted by predators such as killer whales or sharks.

“I like to think … it’s almost like a sledgehammer, these salmon swinging their head back and forth in order to fend off things that might want to feast on them,” he says.

Sidlauskas says analysis by the lead author of the paper, Kerin Claeson, found both male and female salmon had the “multi-functional” spike-tooth feature.

“That’s part of our reason for hypothesizing that this tooth is multi-functional … It could easily be for digging out nests,” he says.

“Think about how big the (nest) would have to be for an animal of this size, and then carving it out in what’s probably pretty shallow water; and so having an extra digging tool attached to your head could be really useful.”

Sidlauskas says the giant salmon help researchers understand the boundaries of what’s possible with the evolution of salmon, but they also capture the human imagination and a sense of wonder about what’s possible on Earth.

“I think it helps us value a little more what we do still have, or I hope that it does. That animal is no longer with us, but it is a product of the same biosphere that sustains us.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 24, 2024.

Brenna Owen, The Canadian Press

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