The First Arctic Summer Without Ice Is Coming in Just 15 Years - BNN | Canada News Media
Connect with us

Science

The First Arctic Summer Without Ice Is Coming in Just 15 Years – BNN

Published

 on


(Bloomberg) — There’s a standard image of the Earth as seen from space that we carry in our heads: vast blue seas, green bands of forests, and frozen white caps on the top and bottom. By the summer of 2035, it may not be accurate. Scientists estimate that in just 15 years Arctic summer sea-ice could disappear for the first time since primitive humans left Africa. 

“The point is, this is happening soon,” says Maria-Vittoria Guarino, an Earth system modeler at the British Antarctic Survey and lead author of a study published earlier this month in the journal Nature Climate Change. “We will have less and less time to get ready for it, or less time to act upon it if we want to do something about it.”

The new research is the latest in a steady stream that has moved up the predicted timeframe for the ice-free Arctic milestone. The amount of sea-ice floating atop the Arctic Ocean at summer’s end has fallen about 13% per decade since 1979. The 13 years with the smallest ice extents on record have all happened over the previous 13 years—and this summer is a sure bet to be No. 14. 

The 2035 estimate made by Guarino and her colleagues is based on what’s known about past climates. Scientists over the years have assembled evidence about previous eras from chemical traces in ice, rocks, and sediment. The new Arctic study looks specifically at a period 130,000 years ago, called the Last Interglacial. 

That period was 4° Celsius hotter than than the pre-industrial era—a plausible preview of conditions humans are creating for the future. Current warming on average is already around 1°C, and the Arctic is warming more than twice as fast as the rest of the planet.

Guarino’s research joins a debate about the pace of global heating that has drawn in climate scientists this year. Some newly updated models, like the one Guarino’s team used, now suggest that warming will occur much, much faster than previously thought. There remains disagreement among scientists over modeling results that show accelerated warming. But, as Guarino sees it, the fact that at least one of these models with hotter-than-expected results has successfully matched physical evidence from the Last Interglacial period makes it difficult to dismiss the findings. Earlier climate models struggled to match the geological evidence from the Last Interglacial.

Estimates like these come with lots of uncertainty, which leaves open the possibility that ice may stick around longer, according to Zachary Labe, a postdoctoral researcher in Atmospheric Sciences at Colorado State University. “I’m also hesitant to focus on the year 2035 too much,” he says. “It’s challenging to predict the first ice-free Arctic.”

Scientists from North Carolina State University and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration earlier this year used a different model to arrive at a similar 2035 target for the ice-free Arctic summer. By “ice-free,” scientists usually mean an extent of less than 1 million square-kilometers. The lowest it has reached is 3.4 million km² in 2012.

Ge Peng, research scholar on the North Carolina State University team, also noted that unexpected events could alter the timeline. The eruption of a large volcano, which spews chemicals into the atmosphere that block sunlight and lower temperatures, could push the estimates out a few years. 

Whichever summer is the first to lose its sea ice, Peng and her colleagues warn that businesses, governments, and people living in the Arctic need to prepare now for changes in regional geopolitics, transportation, and food availability.

Once the pandemic has lifted, Peng hopes to travel to the still-frozen Arctic and find it the way we imagine it with our eyes closed. “I want to do that soon,” she says, “because I don’t want the sea ice to be gone by the time I take the cruise.”

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)



Source link

Continue Reading

Science

The body of a Ugandan Olympic athlete who was set on fire by her partner is received by family

Published

 on

 

NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — The body of Ugandan Olympic athlete Rebecca Cheptegei — who died after being set on fire by her partner in Kenya — was received Friday by family and anti-femicide crusaders, ahead of her burial a day later.

Cheptegei’s family met with dozens of activists Friday who had marched to the Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital’s morgue in the western city of Eldoret while chanting anti-femicide slogans.

She is the fourth female athlete to have been killed by her partner in Kenya in yet another case of gender-based violence in recent years.

Viola Cheptoo, the founder of Tirop Angels – an organization that was formed in honor of athlete Agnes Tirop, who was stabbed to death in 2021, said stakeholders need to ensure this is the last death of an athlete due to gender-based violence.

“We are here to say that enough is enough, we are tired of burying our sisters due to GBV,” she said.

It was a somber mood at the morgue as athletes and family members viewed Cheptegei’s body which sustained 80% of burns after she was doused with gasoline by her partner Dickson Ndiema. Ndiema sustained 30% burns on his body and later succumbed.

Ndiema and Cheptegei were said to have quarreled over a piece of land that the athlete bought in Kenya, according to a report filed by the local chief.

Cheptegei competed in the women’s marathon at the Paris Olympics less than a month before the attack. She finished in 44th place.

Cheptegei’s father, Joseph, said that the body will make a brief stop at their home in the Endebess area before proceeding to Bukwo in eastern Uganda for a night vigil and burial on Saturday.

“We are in the final part of giving my daughter the last respect,” a visibly distraught Joseph said.

He told reporters last week that Ndiema was stalking and threatening Cheptegei and the family had informed police.

Kenya’s high rates of violence against women have prompted marches by ordinary citizens in towns and cities this year.

Four in 10 women or an estimated 41% of dating or married Kenyan women have experienced physical or sexual violence perpetrated by their current or most recent partner, according to the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey 2022.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

News

The ancient jar smashed by a 4-year-old is back on display at an Israeli museum after repair

Published

 on

 

TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — A rare Bronze-Era jar accidentally smashed by a 4-year-old visiting a museum was back on display Wednesday after restoration experts were able to carefully piece the artifact back together.

Last month, a family from northern Israel was visiting the museum when their youngest son tipped over the jar, which smashed into pieces.

Alex Geller, the boy’s father, said his son — the youngest of three — is exceptionally curious, and that the moment he heard the crash, “please let that not be my child” was the first thought that raced through his head.

The jar has been on display at the Hecht Museum in Haifa for 35 years. It was one of the only containers of its size and from that period still complete when it was discovered.

The Bronze Age jar is one of many artifacts exhibited out in the open, part of the Hecht Museum’s vision of letting visitors explore history without glass barriers, said Inbal Rivlin, the director of the museum, which is associated with Haifa University in northern Israel.

It was likely used to hold wine or oil, and dates back to between 2200 and 1500 B.C.

Rivlin and the museum decided to turn the moment, which captured international attention, into a teaching moment, inviting the Geller family back for a special visit and hands-on activity to illustrate the restoration process.

Rivlin added that the incident provided a welcome distraction from the ongoing war in Gaza. “Well, he’s just a kid. So I think that somehow it touches the heart of the people in Israel and around the world,“ said Rivlin.

Roee Shafir, a restoration expert at the museum, said the repairs would be fairly simple, as the pieces were from a single, complete jar. Archaeologists often face the more daunting task of sifting through piles of shards from multiple objects and trying to piece them together.

Experts used 3D technology, hi-resolution videos, and special glue to painstakingly reconstruct the large jar.

Less than two weeks after it broke, the jar went back on display at the museum. The gluing process left small hairline cracks, and a few pieces are missing, but the jar’s impressive size remains.

The only noticeable difference in the exhibit was a new sign reading “please don’t touch.”

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

News

B.C. sets up a panel on bear deaths, will review conservation officer training

Published

 on

 

VICTORIA – The British Columbia government is partnering with a bear welfare group to reduce the number of bears being euthanized in the province.

Nicholas Scapillati, executive director of Grizzly Bear Foundation, said Monday that it comes after months-long discussions with the province on how to protect bears, with the goal to give the animals a “better and second chance at life in the wild.”

Scapillati said what’s exciting about the project is that the government is open to working with outside experts and the public.

“So, they’ll be working through Indigenous knowledge and scientific understanding, bringing in the latest techniques and training expertise from leading experts,” he said in an interview.

B.C. government data show conservation officers destroyed 603 black bears and 23 grizzly bears in 2023, while 154 black bears were killed by officers in the first six months of this year.

Scapillati said the group will publish a report with recommendations by next spring, while an independent oversight committee will be set up to review all bear encounters with conservation officers to provide advice to the government.

Environment Minister George Heyman said in a statement that they are looking for new ways to ensure conservation officers “have the trust of the communities they serve,” and the panel will make recommendations to enhance officer training and improve policies.

Lesley Fox, with the wildlife protection group The Fur-Bearers, said they’ve been calling for such a committee for decades.

“This move demonstrates the government is listening,” said Fox. “I suspect, because of the impending election, their listening skills are potentially a little sharper than they normally are.”

Fox said the partnership came from “a place of long frustration” as provincial conservation officers kill more than 500 black bears every year on average, and the public is “no longer tolerating this kind of approach.”

“I think that the conservation officer service and the B.C. government are aware they need to change, and certainly the public has been asking for it,” said Fox.

Fox said there’s a lot of optimism about the new partnership, but, as with any government, there will likely be a lot of red tape to get through.

“I think speed is going to be important, whether or not the committee has the ability to make change and make change relatively quickly without having to study an issue to death, ” said Fox.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 9, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Exit mobile version