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The First Major Oil Supply Disruption Of 2023



In what is set to be the first major supply disruption of 2023, Russia has announced a 500,000 bpd voluntary production cut due to growing pressure from price caps and embargoes.


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Friday, February 10th, 2023

After months of macro-driven price swings, the introduction of the oil products price cap has awakened the spirit of the oil market and brought fundamentals back into the spotlight. Russia’s announcement that it would curb output as a reaction to sanctions is arguably the first major supply disruption of 2023 as protests in Colombia failed to trigger any notable market reaction. Nigerian presidential elections are only three weeks away, so Russia’s production cuts might be the first of many to come.

Russia to Cut Oil Production in March 2023. According to Russia’s deputy prime minister Alexander Novak, Russia will cut oil production by 500,000 b/d in March 2023 as a reaction to the recently introduced product price cap and EU import ban, pledging not to sell its exports to members of the price cap coalition.

Did the US Blow up Nord Stream Pipelines? Veteran investigative journalist Seymour Hersh, the one to break the stories of the My Lai massacre and Abu Ghraib prison abuse, published a report saying the Nord Stream explosions last September were carried out at the direction of US President Biden.

US Treasury Targets Iranian Petrochemicals. The United States slapped another round of sanctions on companies active in the production, sale, and shipment of Iranian petrochemicals, specifically six Iran-based companies and three firms in Malaysia and Singapore, wary that higher crude exports might soon be matched by higher product outflows, too.

Pipeline Stress Main Reason Behind Keystone Oil Spill. Pipeline operator TC Energy (NYSE:TRP) said the Keystone pipeline oil leak in early December was caused by a weld flaw that was exacerbated by bending stress over time, with total remediation costs coming in at $480 million.

Bakken Holds Down US Supply Growth. The EIA cut its 2024 US production forecast to 12.65 million b/d from an earlier projection of 12.8 million b/d, citing the overall maturation of Bakken shale as the main reason, with wells in North Dakota increasingly producing natural gas instead of oil.

China Locks Up Omani LNG. As Chinese state-owned energy companies on spot LNG purchases, trading firm Unipec signed a supply deal with Oman LNG that would see the latter providing the Chinese side with 1 million tons of LNG for four years starting 2025, the first term deal between Oman and China.

Major Utility Firms to Benefit Biden’s IRA Funds. According to Reuters, it will be leading electric utility firms with renewable projects in the pipeline such as Duke Energy (NYSE:DUK) or Dominion (NYSE:D) that will benefit the most from the Biden Administration’s $430 billion IRA tax credits and payments.

Namibia Superfind Too Good Not to Fast-Track. The French energy company TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) will be spending half of its 2023 exploration budget on offshore Namibia after the 6-billion-barrel Venus discovery last year, the largest in 2022, propelled the frontier region to global limelight.

Tesla Sets End of Master Plan Trilogy for March 1. Following two previous Master Plan vision statements in 2006 and 2016, the CEO of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) Elon Musk said the third part of the company’s Master Plan for a sustainable energy future for Earth will be held on March 1.

Seepage Woes Hinder Imperial Oil. The Alberta Energy Regulator (AER) in Canada issued an environmental protection order to Imperial Oil (TSE:IMO), giving it a week to fix industrial wastewater seepage from tailing ponds, including dissolved iron and arsenic, at its Kearl oil sands project.

Trafigura to Take $577 Million Loss on Nickel Fraud. The Geneva-based trading powerhouse Trafigura will take a $577 million loss in the first half of 2023 after several nickel cargoes delivered by India’s UD Trading Group didn’t contain nickel at all, despite the two sides interacting since at least 2015.

Germany’s Gas Consumption Drops But not Enough. The German energy regulator BNetzA said the country’s gas consumption remains in the “critical” range for the third consecutive week with temperature-adjusted demand only 12% lower than the 2018-2021 average, whilst Berlin mandates a 20% cut.

India Finds Lithium, In the Wrong Place. As the global hunt for lithium deposits intensifies, the Geological Survey of India announced that it found lithium deposits for the first time in the country, though the 5.9 million tonnes of inferred resources were found in Jammu-Kashmir, a territory disputed by Pakistan.

Coal Prices Crater Despite Australia Rains. Squeezed by lower European and Chinese demand as well as the fire-sale of coal by the beleaguered Adani Group, coal prices have fallen to their lowest in a year with the March ’23 ICE Newcastle contract already trading below $200/mt and Europe’s API 2 benchmark down at $125/mt.

By Michael Kern for




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‘People are going to be shocked’: NSLC hikes prices ahead of federal tax increase



Regular shoppers at Nova Scotia liquor stores faced significant price hikes Monday on beer, wine and spirits.

Retiree John McCracken was picking up his usual bottle of wine when he spoke to CTV News outside the NSLC store on Joseph Howe Drive in Halifax.

“I bought last week, the same bottle was $2 less,” said McCracken. “We’re talking like $15, $16 bottle of wine. So not high-end wine.”

“If you go into that liquor store right now, people are going to be shocked.”


Workers were replacing pricing signs in all stores on Monday, but officials insist the overall increase only amounts to about 3 per cent.

“It has to do with overall costs to our supplier community. So that could be anything from freight, transportation, commodities costs, things like glass or aluminum, or other commodities like barley — all of those things are seeing an increase in price, and that’s what factoring in to the overall price increase,” said Allison Himmelman, a spokesperson for the Nova Scotia Liquor Corporation (NSLC).

She says the increase is below the cost of inflation.

Last month, the corporation reported a healthy earnings increase of 6.6 per cent.

On April 1, federal excise taxes are set to increase another 6.3 per cent — the biggest increase in 40 years. 

“The excise tax is actually just one factor that goes into our overall prices here at the NSLC,” said Himmelman.

“And it’s actually a very small factor because not all suppliers choose to pass on that excise tax to their retail product prices.”

Still, some local bars and restaurants say the hikes will have to be passed on to customers, which will hurt business.

“There’s no doubt, yeah, we can’t absorb it,” said Dimo Georgakakos, owner of the iconic Gus’ Pub & Grill in Halifax’s north end.

“We’ve been absorbing so many things, and in the bar business we’re a stoic bunch, and we just sort of put our heads down and keep doing it. And now, they just sort of do that and we’ve got to pass it on and it’s going to make customers come here less,” said Georgakakos, son of the bar’s founder.

He and others are still recovering from lost business in the pandemic, and worry many customers have gotten used to staying home.

“In general, things are not going to get back to the way they were,” said Georgakakos. “It’s going to be different.”

NSLC notes that increased revenue from price adjustments is also shared with producers, including Nova Scotia wineries, brewers and distillers.


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Saudi National Bank appoints chairman after Credit Suisse loss



Decision made nearly two weeks after former chairman Ammar Al Khudairy said the kingdom’s biggest bank by assets would not buy more shares in Credit Suisse on regulatory grounds.

Saudi National Bank, the largest shareholder in Credit Suisse before the bank’s rescue this month, named a new chairman after the lender suffered significant losses on its investment.

CEO Saeed Mohammed Al Ghamdi will take over as the new chairman from Ammar Al Khudairy, who resigned for personal reasons, the bank said on Monday. Deputy CEO Talal Ahmed Al Khereiji takes over as acting chief executive, a bourse statement said.

All changes are effective on Monday and come nearly two weeks after Al Khudairy said the kingdom’s biggest bank by assets would not buy more shares in the Swiss financial institution on regulatory grounds.


The remarks were seen as a trigger to a further sell-off in Credit Suisse’s shares and intensified a crisis of confidence in the lender that had already seen clients pull out more than $110bn in the last three months of 2022.

Combined with global jitters in the banking sector and an already weakened share price, Al Khudairy’s comments contributed to Credit Suisse losing a fifth of its value, which eventually forced it into a takeover by its domestic rival UBS for $3.2bn.

Saudi National Bank, which acquired almost 9.9 percent of Credit Suisse for 5.5 billion riyals ($1.46bn) in November, has itself lost more than $26bn in market value since October 27 after committing to the investment.

By last week, it was sitting on a loss of more than $1bn but said on March 20 that the drop in its investment’s value had no impact on its growth plans and would not affect profitability.

Al Khudairy also said this month that the bank was not looking at any international acquisitions now and instead was focused on its Saudi business.


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What every Canadian investor needs to know today




Canada’s main stock index opened up on Monday with energy and financial stocks adding upward pressure. On Wall Street, key indexes also started higher after a deal to acquire a big chunk of Silicon Valley Bank helped ease concerns about the health of the sector.

At 9:30 a.m. ET, the Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index was up 58.63 points, or 0.3 per cent, at 19,560.12.

In the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 39.19 points, or 0.12 per cent, at the open to 32,276.72. The S&P 500 opened higher by 11.94 points, or 0.30 per cent, at 3,982.93, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 44.58 points, or 0.38 per cent, to 11,868.54 at the opening bell.


Overnight, First Citizens said it would buy Silicon Valley Bank’s deposits and loans along with certain other assets from the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

The FDIC said in separate statement it has received equity appreciation rights in First Citizens stock with a potential value of up to U.S. $500-million as part of the deal, Reuters reported. First Citizens said the transaction was structured to preserve its solid financial position and the combined company will have a diverse loan portfolio and deposit base.

SVB’s collapse, the biggest since the 2008 financial crisis, earlier this month sent shockwaves through the global banking sector, triggering huge market volatility and an heightened focus on the health of institutions around the world.

In Canada, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland delivers the federal government’s next budget on Tuesday afternoon. Investors will be looking for inflation relief among efforts to address the rising cost of living for Canadians.

“Climate policy, and more specifically, Canada’s response to the massive U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, will headline the budget,” Alvin Tan, Asia FX strategist with RBC, said.

“Some targeted relief to help more vulnerable groups cope with higher living costs is also expected, but plans to return the budget to balance remain at best aspirational.”

Later in the week, investors will get a look at the health of the Canadian economy at the start of the year when Statistics Canada releases its report on January GDP on Friday. Early estimates suggest GDP grew 0.3 per cent for the month.

Canadian companies reporting results include Dollarama on Wednesday and BlackBerry on Thursday.

The latest deadline to close Rogers Communications’ $20-billion deal to buy Shaw Communications expires at the end of the week. The companies are awaiting federal approval for the acquisition.

Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was up 1.21 per cent by midday. Britain’s FTSE 100 advanced 0.95 per cent. Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 were up 1.29 per cent and 1.06 per cent, respectively.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei finished 0.33-per-cent higher. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.75 per cent.


Crude prices advanced as developments in the banking sector helped ease jitters in broader markets.

The day range on Brent was US$74.80 to US$75.96 in the early premarket period. The range on West Texas Intermediate was US$69.13 to US$70.24.

Brent added about 2.8 per cent last week while WTI rose more than 3 per cent.

Sentiment drew some support from new that First Citizens would buy a big chunk of failed Silicon Valley Bank, helping ease concerns about the state of the global banking sector.

Prices also saw some upward pressure from rising geopolitical tensions in Europe amid Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plans to place tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.

Reuters reports that the move is one of Russia’s most pronounced nuclear signals yet and a warning to NATO over its military support for Ukraine, which has called for a meeting of the U.N. Security Council in response. NATO slammed Putin for his “dangerous and irresponsible” nuclear rhetoric.

In other commodities, gold prices fell for a second session as the U.S. dollar held relatively steady.

Spot gold was down 0.5 per cent at US$1,967.86 per ounce by early Monday morning. U.S. gold futures slipped 0.8 per cent to US$1,968.90.


The Canadian dollar was up modestly while its U.S. counterpart held recent gains against a group of world currencies.

The day range on the loonie was 72.75 US cents to 72.90 US cents early Monday morning.

There were no major Canadian economic releases due Monday.

On world markets, the dollar index, which measures the currency against six rivals, rose 0.06 per cent at 103.05, after advancing 0.5 per cent on Friday as investors sought safer holdings amid concerns about the health of the world’s banking sector.

The euro was up 0.08 per cent to US$1.0771, after falling 0.6 per cent on Friday, according to figures from Reuters.

Britain’s pound was at US$1.2260, up 0.25 per cent, after falling 0.5 per cent on Friday. The Australian dollar rose 0.14 per cent to US$0.6652. The New Zealand dollar was up 0.02 per cent at US$0.6202.

More company news

The Globe’s James Bradshaw reports Onex Corp. is offering to shorten a sunset clause that would keep founder Gerry Schwartz in control of the company to three years in a bid to win support from shareholders over the founder’s plan to step down as CEO. Mr. Schwartz, 80, is chairman and chief executive officer and also controls the $50-billion private equity and asset management company through multiple voting shares. He plans to step aside this spring, with president Bobby Le Blanc taking over as CEO.

Australia’s Origin Energy Ltd on Monday agreed a A$15.35 billion (US$10.21-billion) takeover offer from a consortium led by Canada’s Brookfield, nearing the conclusion of one of the biggest private equity-backed buyouts in the country announced last year. Once the deal is finalized, Origin will be broken up into two businesses – Energy Markets business to be acquired by Brookfield; while MidOcean Energy, the other consortium partner, would take control of Origin’s integrated gas business. –Reuters

Toronto-based Li-Cycle Holdings Corp said on Monday it will build a French facility to break down batteries from forklift manufacturer The Kion Group, marking the latest expansion by the rapidly growing recycling company. The French facility, which is expected to open in 2024 and complement similar sites under development in Germany and Norway, will break down lithium-ion batteries that power Kion’s forklifts and other heavy machinery, giving Li-Cycle a fresh source of batteries to recycle beyond the consumer automobile market. –Reuters

Economic news

Germany business climate

With Reuters and The Canadian Press


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