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The Future OfRetail Media& Marketplaces: 6 Predictions For 2023

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The pace of change in the retail marketplaces and retail media world seems to be increasing. It seemed that a new retail media network launched every other week in 2022. We also saw retail business models starting to fracture, and the eventual easing and overcorrection of inventory shortages that first cropped up in 2021.

Besides more new retail media networks, what will 2023 bring to brands selling and advertising on retail marketplaces like Amazon, Walmart.com and Instacart? Here are my top six predictions as a retail marketplace practitioner.

1. The emergence of “Return-On-Content” as a performance metric

The quality bar for product and brand content and performance creative has jumped significantly. Shoppers are seeing more immersive, striking, and detailed brand content online, and they are starting to expect it from all brands.

Combine this expectation with what I’ll call the democratization of premium content. In 2022, Amazon made Premium A+ product content free for all brands, a benefit that previously came with a price tag in the 8-figure range. Instacart also launched brand store pages and the ability for brands to update product content – a big shift in the ability for brands to control and optimize their positioning.

Many brands are in “retail content debt” and have a lot to catch up on. They have ignored the investment required, and have a lot of ground to make up. 2023 will be the year where they will make good in this area.

But the challenge is in securing budget for content. To date, there’s no ROAS-equivalent metric that digital teams can use to justify an investment in content. In 2023, we will see brands adopt metrics like Return On Content in order to legitimize investment that is often viewed as “squishy”.

 

2. AI will elevate, but bifurcate, content quality

AI writing tools will make it much faster and more affordable for many brands to bridge their aforementioned product and brand content gaps. But widespread adoption of AI will create an ocean of same-same content and undifferentiated positioning.

Brands that invest in human-led, innovative content can stand out from the pack. There will be a premium on creativity that not all brands will spring for.

Consider Cheetos who launched a beautiful, custom campaign on Amazon for a niche, limited-edition “drop” style product called the Cheetos Duster. It was a PR gimmick, to be sure, but the execution was extraordinary. Creating memorable brand moments like these require a level of creative thinking that AI just cannot produce… yet.

 

3. Amazon’s ad revenue growth will be driven by non-endemic brands

Amazon’s overtures toward brands that don’t sell physical goods on the marketplace (car manufacturers, insurance companies, restaurants) will start to pay off. I have written about this topic previously for Forbes, Amazon Sets Its Sights On An Even Bigger Prize: The Non-Endemic Advertiser.

These brands face rising customer acquisition costs through other channels, and Amazon’s ad inventory, audience targeting, and measurement capabilities are robust. More non-endemic brands will wake up to this opportunity in 2023.

Meanwhile, Amazon has already made significant inroads into its core base of endemic brand advertisers, and there is less upside in this advertiser group than the existing pool of endemic brand advertisers.

4. Walmart advertising will grow its share of the retail media pie

Walmart has been investing heavily in its advertising offering. In 2022, Walmart made changes like adjusting its advertising auction format and offering a free tier of analytics. In response brands are indicating more interest in Walmart as both a sales and marketing channel.

eMarketer’s latest forecast puts Amazon’s share of retail media ad spend at 77%, compared with Walmart’s 6.2%. The size of the overall retail media pie will grow, but 2023 will see Walmart increase their share of the pie.

This will simply be due to the law of large numbers. In Q2 2022, WM said that its ads business grew 30% year-over-year. By comparison, Amazon ad revenue in Q2 was up 18% year-over-year.

5. Bankruptcy of one or more large Amazon aggregator

We have moved past the heady days of the Amazon aggregator business model, circa 2020. The basic idea was a private equity model for Amazon-based companies. But we have still not seen any of these brands get close to their aspiration of “the next Unilever or Proctor & Gamble” in terms of gaining household brand recognition.

At the same time, DTC brands are embracing Amazon, such as Peloton. These brands are moving onto Amazon and other wholesale channels for lower distribution cost. Some of these DTC brands have had great success in breaking through to the mainstream consciousness.

New competition from these proven brands creates yet another headwind for aggregator brands – in addition to the higher cost of debt and major supply chain disruptions.

2022 saw some precedents in the form of Amazon resellers facing financial woes. Packable, the parent company of Amazon reseller Pharmapacks, closed its doors in 2022. Spreetail, which also operates a reseller business model, made large cuts to its workforce. The business model is slightly different to having a portfolio of owned brands, but the turmoil hints at inherent challenges with an Amazon-first distribution model.

6. Retailers start sharing anonymized shopper data

According to Insider Intelligence’s Retail Media Perceptions Benchmark report published in 2022, the three biggest factors driving adoption of RMNs (retail media networks) by advertisers are:

  1. Traffic scale (reaching a large enough audience)
  2. Traffic quality (reaching the right audience)
  3. Audience targeting capabilities (audience attributes/segmentation)

A limited audience size is the achilles heel for many retailers who want to attract profitable advertising revenue. The time cost of managing a very small media channel is close to a large one, so only the largest enterprise brands are candidates for smaller retail media networks.

The obvious solution to scale here is for retailers to partner with each other in sharing anonymized first-party data in a secure data lake. This larger pool of shopper data and advertising inventory will attract a much larger group of advertisers, and potentially the non-endemics that Amazon is wooing now, too.

Today, we are able to do something similar with Amazon’s DSP (demand side platform) and Amazon Marketing Cloud by uploading first-party DTC shopper data. Shopper profiles are anonymous, but able to be matched. This allows a brand to create advertising white- or black-lists, perform audience overlap analysis, and see the lifetime value of a customer who’s researching and transacting across both sales channels, and more. Having multiple retailers partner up will create great opportunities both for the retailers and for advertisers.

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What to stream this weekend: ‘Civil War,’ Snow Patrol, ‘How to Die Alone,’ ‘Tulsa King’ and ‘Uglies’

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Hallmark launching a streaming service with two new original series, and Bill Skarsgård out for revenge in “Boy Kills World” are some of the new television, films, music and games headed to a device near you.

Also among the streaming offerings worth your time as selected by The Associated Press’ entertainment journalists: Alex Garland’s “Civil War” starring Kirsten Dunst, Natasha Rothwell’s heartfelt comedy for Hulu called “How to Die Alone” and Sylvester Stallone’s second season of “Tulsa King” debuts.

NEW MOVIES TO STREAM SEPT. 9-15

Alex Garland’s “Civil War” is finally making its debut on MAX on Friday. The film stars Kirsten Dunst as a veteran photojournalist covering a violent war that’s divided America; She reluctantly allows an aspiring photographer, played by Cailee Spaeny, to tag along as she, an editor (Stephen McKinley Henderson) and a reporter (Wagner Moura) make the dangerous journey to Washington, D.C., to interview the president (Nick Offerman), a blustery, rising despot who has given himself a third term, taken to attacking his citizens and shut himself off from the press. In my review, I called it a bellowing and haunting experience; Smart and thought-provoking with great performances. It’s well worth a watch.

— Joey King stars in Netflix’s adaptation of Scott Westerfeld’s “Uglies,” about a future society in which everyone is required to have beautifying cosmetic surgery at age 16. Streaming on Friday, McG directed the film, in which King’s character inadvertently finds herself in the midst of an uprising against the status quo. “Outer Banks” star Chase Stokes plays King’s best friend.

— Bill Skarsgård is out for revenge against the woman (Famke Janssen) who killed his family in “Boy Kills World,” coming to Hulu on Friday. Moritz Mohr directed the ultra-violent film, of which Variety critic Owen Gleiberman wrote: “It’s a depraved vision, yet I got caught up in its kick-ass revenge-horror pizzazz, its disreputable commitment to what it was doing.”

AP Film Writer Lindsey Bahr

NEW MUSIC TO STREAM SEPT. 9-15

— The year was 2006. Snow Patrol, the Northern Irish-Scottish alternative rock band, released an album, “Eyes Open,” producing the biggest hit of their career: “Chasing Cars.” A lot has happened in the time since — three, soon to be four quality full-length albums, to be exact. On Friday, the band will release “The Forest Is the Path,” their first new album in seven years. Anthemic pop-rock is the name of the game across songs of love and loss, like “All,”“The Beginning” and “This Is the Sound Of Your Voice.”

— For fans of raucous guitar music, Jordan Peele’s 2022 sci-fi thriller, “NOPE,” provided a surprising, if tiny, thrill. One of the leads, Emerald “Em” Haywood portrayed by Keke Palmer, rocks a Jesus Lizard shirt. (Also featured through the film: Rage Against the Machine, Wipers, Mr Bungle, Butthole Surfers and Earth band shirts.) The Austin noise rock band are a less than obvious pick, having been signed to the legendary Touch and Go Records and having stopped releasing new albums in 1998. That changes on Friday the 13th, when “Rack” arrives. And for those curious: The Jesus Lizard’s intensity never went away.

AP Music Writer Maria Sherman

NEW SHOWS TO STREAM SEPT. 9-15

— Hallmark launched a streaming service called Hallmark+ on Tuesday with two new original series, the scripted drama “The Chicken Sisters” and unscripted series “Celebrations with Lacey Chabert.” If you’re a Hallmark holiday movies fan, you know Chabert. She’s starred in more than 30 of their films and many are holiday themed. Off camera, Chabert has a passion for throwing parties and entertaining. In “Celebrations,” deserving people are surprised with a bash in their honor — planned with Chabert’s help. “The Chicken Sisters” stars Schuyler Fisk, Wendie Malick and Lea Thompson in a show about employees at rival chicken restaurants in a small town. The eight-episode series is based on a novel of the same name.

Natasha Rothwell of “Insecure” and “The White Lotus” fame created and stars in a new heartfelt comedy for Hulu called “How to Die Alone.” She plays Mel, a broke, go-along-to-get-along, single, airport employee who, after a near-death experience, makes the conscious decision to take risks and pursue her dreams. Rothwell has been working on the series for the past eight years and described it to The AP as “the most vulnerable piece of art I’ve ever put into the world.” Like Mel, Rothwell had to learn to bet on herself to make the show she wanted to make. “In the Venn diagram of me and Mel, there’s significant overlap,” said Rothwell. It premieres Friday on Hulu.

— Shailene Woodley, DeWanda Wise and Betty Gilpin star in a new drama for Starz called “Three Women,” about entrepreneur Sloane, homemaker Lina and student Maggie who are each stepping into their power and making life-changing decisions. They’re interviewed by a writer named Gia (Woodley.) The series is based on a 2019 best-selling book of the same name by Lisa Taddeo. “Three Women” premieres Friday on Starz.

— Sylvester Stallone’s second season of “Tulsa King” debuts Sunday on Paramount+. Stallone plays Dwight Manfredi, a mafia boss who was recently released from prison after serving 25 years. He’s sent to Tulsa to set up a new crime syndicate. The series is created by Taylor Sheridan of “Yellowstone” fame.

Alicia Rancilio

NEW VIDEO GAMES TO PLAY

— One thing about the title of Focus Entertainment’s Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 — you know exactly what you’re in for. You are Demetrian Titus, a genetically enhanced brute sent into battle against the Tyranids, an insectoid species with an insatiable craving for human flesh. You have a rocket-powered suit of armor and an arsenal of ridiculous weapons like the “Chainsword,” the “Thunderhammer” and the “Melta Rifle,” so what could go wrong? Besides the squishy single-player mode, there are cooperative missions and six-vs.-six free-for-alls. You can suit up now on PlayStation 5, Xbox X/S or PC.

— Likewise, Wild Bastards isn’t exactly the kind of title that’s going to attract fans of, say, Animal Crossing. It’s another sci-fi shooter, but the protagonists are a gang of 13 varmints — aliens and androids included — who are on the run from the law. Each outlaw has a distinctive set of weapons and special powers: Sarge, for example, is a robot with horse genes, while Billy the Squid is … well, you get the idea. Australian studio Blue Manchu developed the 2019 cult hit Void Bastards, and this Wild-West-in-space spinoff has the same snarky humor and vibrant, neon-drenched cartoon look. Saddle up on PlayStation 5, Xbox X/S, Nintendo Switch or PC.

Lou Kesten

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Trump could cash out his DJT stock within weeks. Here’s what happens if he sells

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Former President Donald Trump is on the brink of a significant financial decision that could have far-reaching implications for both his personal wealth and the future of his fledgling social media company, Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG). As the lockup period on his shares in TMTG, which owns Truth Social, nears its end, Trump could soon be free to sell his substantial stake in the company. However, the potential payday, which makes up a large portion of his net worth, comes with considerable risks for Trump and his supporters.

Trump’s stake in TMTG comprises nearly 59% of the company, amounting to 114,750,000 shares. As of now, this holding is valued at approximately $2.6 billion. These shares are currently under a lockup agreement, a common feature of initial public offerings (IPOs), designed to prevent company insiders from immediately selling their shares and potentially destabilizing the stock. The lockup, which began after TMTG’s merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), is set to expire on September 25, though it could end earlier if certain conditions are met.

Should Trump decide to sell his shares after the lockup expires, the market could respond in unpredictable ways. The sale of a substantial number of shares by a major stakeholder like Trump could flood the market, potentially driving down the stock price. Daniel Bradley, a finance professor at the University of South Florida, suggests that the market might react negatively to such a large sale, particularly if there aren’t enough buyers to absorb the supply. This could lead to a sharp decline in the stock’s value, impacting both Trump’s personal wealth and the company’s market standing.

Moreover, Trump’s involvement in Truth Social has been a key driver of investor interest. The platform, marketed as a free speech alternative to mainstream social media, has attracted a loyal user base largely due to Trump’s presence. If Trump were to sell his stake, it might signal a lack of confidence in the company, potentially shaking investor confidence and further depressing the stock price.

Trump’s decision is also influenced by his ongoing legal battles, which have already cost him over $100 million in legal fees. Selling his shares could provide a significant financial boost, helping him cover these mounting expenses. However, this move could also have political ramifications, especially as he continues his bid for the Republican nomination in the 2024 presidential race.

Trump Media’s success is closely tied to Trump’s political fortunes. The company’s stock has shown volatility in response to developments in the presidential race, with Trump’s chances of winning having a direct impact on the stock’s value. If Trump sells his stake, it could be interpreted as a lack of confidence in his own political future, potentially undermining both his campaign and the company’s prospects.

Truth Social, the flagship product of TMTG, has faced challenges in generating traffic and advertising revenue, especially compared to established social media giants like X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook. Despite this, the company’s valuation has remained high, fueled by investor speculation on Trump’s political future. If Trump remains in the race and manages to secure the presidency, the value of his shares could increase. Conversely, any missteps on the campaign trail could have the opposite effect, further destabilizing the stock.

As the lockup period comes to an end, Trump faces a critical decision that could shape the future of both his personal finances and Truth Social. Whether he chooses to hold onto his shares or cash out, the outcome will likely have significant consequences for the company, its investors, and Trump’s political aspirations.

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Arizona man accused of social media threats to Trump is arrested

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Cochise County, AZ — Law enforcement officials in Arizona have apprehended Ronald Lee Syvrud, a 66-year-old resident of Cochise County, after a manhunt was launched following alleged death threats he made against former President Donald Trump. The threats reportedly surfaced in social media posts over the past two weeks, as Trump visited the US-Mexico border in Cochise County on Thursday.

Syvrud, who hails from Benson, Arizona, located about 50 miles southeast of Tucson, was captured by the Cochise County Sheriff’s Office on Thursday afternoon. The Sheriff’s Office confirmed his arrest, stating, “This subject has been taken into custody without incident.”

In addition to the alleged threats against Trump, Syvrud is wanted for multiple offences, including failure to register as a sex offender. He also faces several warrants in both Wisconsin and Arizona, including charges for driving under the influence and a felony hit-and-run.

The timing of the arrest coincided with Trump’s visit to Cochise County, where he toured the US-Mexico border. During his visit, Trump addressed the ongoing border issues and criticized his political rival, Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, for what he described as lax immigration policies. When asked by reporters about the ongoing manhunt for Syvrud, Trump responded, “No, I have not heard that, but I am not that surprised and the reason is because I want to do things that are very bad for the bad guys.”

This incident marks the latest in a series of threats against political figures during the current election cycle. Just earlier this month, a 66-year-old Virginia man was arrested on suspicion of making death threats against Vice President Kamala Harris and other public officials.

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