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The Geopolitical Risk Premium Is Back in Oil Markets | OilPrice.com




Michael Kern

Michael Kern is a newswriter and editor at Safehaven.com and Oilprice.com, 

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The geopolitical risk premium returned to oil markets this week after Israel rejected a ceasefire offer and bombed Rafah. 

Friday, February 9th, 2024

The geopolitical risk premium kicked back in big time this week after Israel rejected a ceasefire offer in Gaza and bombed the border city of Rafah, making it increasingly unlikely that the upcoming weeks would see any de-escalation of tensions in Gaza. Relatively bearish calls from the US Energy Information Administration, saying that US crude output is unlikely to surpass the current level of 13.3 million b/d until early 2025, have also buoyed oil prices, with Brent poised to end the week slightly below $82 per barrel.

Devon Energy to Kick Off 2024 M&A Season. US oil producer Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN) has reportedly approached Enerplus, a Calgary-headquartered upstream firm mostly focused on Bakken and Marcellus, with an acquisition offer that could go up to $3 billion.

India Courts Guyana for Oil Deals. The Indian government is seeking a multi-year oil purchase deal with Guyana and would be keen to buy into exploration blocks there, suggesting India’s state-owned companies might pick up some of the relinquished parts of the Stabroek block.

Sweden Doesn’t Want to Say Who Blew Up Nord Stream. Swedish authorities dropped their probe into the 2022 explosions on Nord Stream pipelines, saying they lacked jurisdiction on the case, and handed over collected evidence to Germany which is still carrying out its investigation. 

ExxonMobil Plays with Venezuelan Fire. US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) announced it would drill two exploratory wells north and west of its Stabroek block in the Essequibo offshore area disputed by Venezuela, triggering the ire of Caracas and raising tensions in the region again. 

Australia’s Giant Merger Collapses Amid Shareholder Pressure. Australia’s leading oil producers Woodside (ASX:WDS) and Santos (ASX:STO) called off their $52 billion merger as the two companies couldn’t agree on a valuation level and failed to pass due diligence. 

First Time in Six Years, Palladium Prices Fall Below Platinum. Palladium prices fell below the platinum price for the first time since April 2018 this week, dropping to $870 per troy ounce, as the automotive sector has been increasingly going for cheaper platinum option. 

Joining Shell, TotalEnergies Eyes Onshore Nigeria Sale. France’s energy major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) is expected to unveil its divestment of onshore Nigerian assets, most notably a 10% stake in the heretofore Shell-operated SPDC, whilst keeping gas projects in the Niger Delta.

Europe’s Wind Generation Beats Gas in 2023. Europe’s wind power generation surpassed natural gas last year, accounting for 18% of the continent’s supply and only losing out to nuclear, however, gas’ 15% year-on-year drop might rebound this year as prices fell below $10/mmBtu.

Activists Target LME for Trading Indonesian Copper. Two activist groups filed a legal action against the London Metal Exchange for allowing the sale of copper from the Freeport McMoran-operated (NYSE:FCX) Grasberg mine in Indonesia, allegedly polluting water sources with waste.

Brushing Aside Demand Worries, US Driving Hits Record. The US Transportation Department reported that travel on American roads rose 2.1% to 3.263 trillion miles, setting an all-time high, as offices and federal agencies prompted workers to return amid lower gasoline prices. 

Green Hydrogen Impact to Be a Part of LNG Assessments. The White House stated that the pause in LNG terminal approvals should weigh the impact of new gas projects on the green hydrogen market, saying the regulatory revamp should take months not years. 

Germany Mulls Nationalization of Russian-Owned Refinery. The German government said it is investigating the option of expropriating Rosneft Deutschland, a subsidiary of Russia’s state-run oil company that holds shares in three German plants and operates the Schwedt refinery.

Mexico’s Next Best Thing Delayed Again. Mexico’s embattled national oil firm Pemex delayed the launch of its largest untapped asset, the 675 MMbbls Zama field originally discovered by Talos Energy (NYSE:TALO), by one year to 2026 citing the need for further engineering appraisal. 

By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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