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The global energy crisis has 4 possible paths through 2022: BofA – Markets Insider

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Oil pumps at sunset, industrial oil pumps equipment.
  • The worldwide energy crisis unfolding has thrown markets into unprecedented turmoil.
  • In Europe, natural gas prices are at record highs. And in China, thermal coal futures are also at all-time highs.
  • Francisco Blanch of Bank of America provided Insider with four possible paths through early 2022.
  • Sign up here for our daily newsletter, 10 Things Before the Opening Bell.

The worldwide energy crisis unfolding amid a surge in demand and an ongoing supply crunch has thrown the oil and gas markets into unprecedented turmoil.

Oil prices are up more than 60% this year, with West Texas Intermediate crude hitting a fresh seven-year high on Friday.

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Elsewhere, the situation is even more extreme. In Europe, natural gas prices are at record highs, with wholesale prices on spot markets tripling this year. In China, thermal coal futures are also at all-time highs and have tripled this year as well.

As energy prices continue to rocket, Francisco Blanch, Bank of America Global Commodities and Derivatives Research Head, provided Insider with four possible paths he sees through early 2022. Each one holds the promise of prices cooling off, but some scenarios are more painful than others.

1. A spike in energy prices will lead to an economic crash

Francisco likened the energy crunch today to the run-up in oil prices between 2007 to 2008.

At the start of 2007, Brent crude was at just $50 a barrel, then nearly doubled to $95.98 a barrel towards the end of the year. And by July 2008, prices soared to an all-time high of nearly $150 a barrel. But prices crashed spectacularly as the Great Recession took hold.

If a similar spike in oil happens again, Francisco said major industrial firms may just sharply decrease production activities or shut down altogether, which will ultimately lead to a recession.

In fact, surging energy prices have already forced some businesses, especially in Europe and Asia, to halt manufacturing.

2. More production, substitution

An increase in the prices of any good will prompt any producer to either ramp up their production or to find more affordable alternatives, Francisco said.

So far, US shale companies have indicated they plan to invest more money next year in domestic production. But they don’t appear ready to unleash a flood of oil as investment remains constrained in favor of bigger shareholder returns.

Meanwhile, as natural gas and coal prices soar, some companies are shifting to using oil. That may add around 500,000 barrels a day to global demand, according to the International Energy Agency.

3. A warm winter that will temporarily cure the problem

Global energy prices are rising ahead of winter, when demand spikes for natural gas and coal to heat homes. Buyers across the globe are competing over a limited supply while energy prices remain high. The US Energy Information Administration on October 13 warned Americans to brace themselves for a heftier heating bill.

But what if we suddenly experience a warmer-than-expected winter? Demand will naturally slide, and the problem, according to Francisco said, would have momentarily cured itself “by chance.”

4. A hike in interest rates that will slow down aggregate demand

Then there’s the possibility that the central bank will slow down aggregate demand, Francisco said. This means allowing for somewhat higher interest rates and reduced quantitative easing, which will cool overall growth and energy consumption.

Federal Reserve officials have already signaled they will taper bond purchases later this year and start hiking rates next year, as the economy continues to rebound and inflation stays elevated.

“Remember, you can print US dollars, you can print euros, and you can print Philippine pesos. But you can’t print commodities,” he said.

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Calgary breaks all-time record in housing starts but increasing demand keeps inventory low – CBC.ca

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Soaring housing demands in Calgary led to an all-time record for new residential builds last year, but inventory levels of completed and unsold units remained low due to demand outpacing supply.

According to the latest report from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), total housing starts increased by 13 per cent in Calgary, reaching a total of 19,579 units with growth across all dwelling types in the city.

That compares to a decline of 0.5 per cent overall for housing starts in the six major Canadian cities surveyed by CMHC.

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Calgary also had the highest housing starts by population.

“Part of the reason why we think that might have happened is that developers are responding to low vacancies in the rental market,” said Adebola Omosola, a housing economics specialist with CMHC.

“The population of Calgary is still growing, a record number of people moved here last year, and we still expect that to remain at least in the short term.”

Earlier this year, the Calgary Real Estate Board also predicted that demand, especially for rental apartments, wouldn’t let up any time soon. 

Industry can cope with demand, expert says

According to numbers from the report, average construction times were higher in 2023 for all dwelling types except for apartments.

The agency’s report suggests the increase in the number of under-construction residential projects might mean builders are operating at or near full capacity.

However, there’s optimism the construction industry can match the increasing need.

Brian Hahn, CEO of BILD Calgary Region, said despite concerns around about construction costs, project timelines and labour shortages, the industry has kept up with the demand for new builds.

Demand is expected to remain robust, but the construction industry can keep up, according to BILD Calgary region CEO Brian Hahn.
Demand is expected to remain robust, but the construction industry can keep up, according to BILD Calgary Region chief executive officer Brian Hahn. (Shaun Best/Reuters)

“I’ve heard that kind of conversation at the end of 2022 and I heard it in 2023,” Hahn said.

“Yet here we are early in 2024, and January and February were record numbers again.”

Hahn added he believes the current pace of construction will continue for at least the next six months and that the industry is looking at initiatives to attract more people to the trades.

Increase in row house and apartment construction

Construction growth was largely driven by new apartment projects, making up almost half of the housing starts in Calgary in 2023.

The federal housing agency says 9,034 apartment units were started that year, an increase of 17 per cent from the previous year. Of those, about 54 per cent were purpose-built rentals.

Apartments made up around two-thirds of all units under construction, CMHC said, with the total number of units under construction reaching 23,473.

Growth, however, was seen across all dwelling types. Row homes increased by 34 per cent from the previous year while groundbreaking on single-detached homes grew by two per cent.

“Notwithstanding challenges, our members and the industry counterparts that support them managed to produce a record amount of starts and completions,” Hahn said.

“I have little doubt that the industry will do their very best to keep pace at those levels.”

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Ottawa real estate: House starts down, apartments up in 2023 – CTV News Ottawa

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Rental housing dominated construction in Ottawa last year, according to a new report from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

Residential construction declined significantly in 2023, with housing starts dropping to 9,245 units, a 19.5 per cent decline from the record high observed in 2022. But while single-detached and row housing starts fell compared to 2022, new construction for rental units and condominiums rose.

“There’s been a shift toward rental construction over the past two years. Rental housing starts made up nearly one third of total starts in 2023, close to double the average of the previous five years,” the report stated.

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Apartment starts reached their highest level since the 1970s.

“The trend toward rental and condominium apartment construction follows increased demand in these market segments due to population growth, households looking for affordable options, and some seniors downsizing to smaller units,” the CMHC said.

Demand from international migration and students, the high cost of home ownership, and people moving to Ottawa from other parts of Ontario were the main drivers for rental housing starts in 2023. The CMHC says rental and condominium apartment starts made up 63 per cent of total starts in 2023, compared to the average of 37 per cent for the period 2018-2022.

There was a modest increase in rental housing starts in 2023 over the record-high seen the year prior and a jump in new condominiums. The report shows 5,846 new apartments were built in Ottawa last year, up 2.1 per cent compared to 2022.

Housing starts in Ottawa by year. (CMHC)

Big demand for condos

The CMHC said condo starts reached a new high in 2023, increasing 3 per cent from 2022 numbers.

“As of the end of 2023, there were only 13 completed and unsold condominium units, highlighting continued demand for new units,” the CMHC said.

Condominum starts increased in areas such as Chinatown, Hintonburg, Vanier and Alta Vista, as well as some suburban areas like Kanata, Stittsville, and western Orléans. Condo apartment construction declined in denser parts of the city like downtown, Lowertown and Centretown, the report says.

Taller buildings are also becoming more common, as the cranes dotting the skyline can attest. The CMHC notes that buildings with more than 20 storeys accounted for nearly 10 per cent of apartment structure starts in 2022 and 2023, compared to an average of 2 per cent over the 2017-2021 period. The number of units per building also rose 7 per cent compared to 2022.

Apartment building heights in Ottawa by year. (CMHC)

Single-detached home construction down significantly

The number of new single-detached homes built in Ottawa last year was the lowest level seen in the city since the mid 1990s, CMHC said.

“The Ottawa area experienced a slowdown in residential construction in 2023, driven by a significant decline in single-detached and row housing starts,” the CMHC said.

Single-detached housing starts were down 45 per cent compared to 2022. Row house starts dropped by 38 per cent compared to 2022, marking a third year of declines in a row.

“Demand for single-detached and row houses also declined in 2023. Higher mortgage rates and home prices have led to a shift in demand toward more affordable rental and condominium units,” the report said.

There were 1,535 single-detached housing starts in Ottawa last year, 208 new semi-detached homes and 1,678 new row houses.

The majority of single-detached and row housing starts were built in suburban communities such as Barrhaven, Stittsville, Kanata, Orléans and rural parts of the city.

“Increased construction costs resulting from higher financing rates and inflation that occurred in 2022 and 2023 contributed to the decline in construction in the region,” the CMHC said. 

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Trump’s media company ticker leads to fleeting windfall for some investors

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A man looks at a screen that displays trading information about shares of Truth Social and Trump Media & Technology Group, outside the Nasdaq Market site in New York City, U.S., March 26.Brendan McDermid/Reuters

Possible confusion over the new stock symbol for former President Donald Trump’s Truth Social (DJT-Q) saw some investor brokerage balances briefly jump by hundreds of thousands of dollars on Tuesday, the first day Trump’s “DJT” ticker traded.

Several people complained on social media about briefly seeing the value of their DJT stock holdings on Charles Schwab platforms inflated to figures more in line with what they would be worth if the shares traded at the level of the Dow Jones Transportation Average.

Some users said they faced a similar issue in pre-market hours on Morgan Stanley’s E*Trade trading platform.

Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group opened Tuesday at $70.90, while the Dow Jones Transportation Average started the session at 15,937.73 points.

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For one trader, the Schwab brokerage balance jumped by more than $1 million due to the error, according to a screen grab shared on social media platform X. Reuters was unable to contact the trader or independently verify the brokerage balance.

“It sure was nice seeing millions in the account, even if it wasn’t real,” another person, going by the username @DanielBenjamin8, who faced the issue in his E*Trade account, posted on X.

Two X users and one on Reddit surmised that the inflated balances were due to the ticker symbol for the company being nearly identical to the index.

A spokeswoman for Charles Schwab said that certain users on some of Schwab’s trading platforms saw their brokerage balances briefly inflated due to a technical issue.

The issue has been resolved and investors are able to trade equities and options on Schwab platforms, she said. Schwab declined to describe the exact cause of the issue.

E*Trade did not immediately respond to a request for comment outside of regular business hours.

Trump Media & Technology Group and S&P Dow Jones Indices, which maintains the Dow Jones Transportation Average Index, did not immediately comment on the issue.

While social media users said the issue appeared to have been resolved, many rued not being able to cash out their supposed gains from the error.

“I better go tell my boss that I’m actually not retiring,” the trader whose account balance had briefly jump by more than $1 million, wrote on X.

Trump Media & Technology Group shares surged more than 36% on Tuesday in their debut on the Nasdaq that comes more than two years since its merger with a blank-check firm was announced.

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