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The hardest decision in investing – Morningstar.ca

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Editor’s note: Read the latest on how the coronavirus is rattling the markets and what you can do to navigate it.

Ruth Saldanha: For many investors, the steep downturn of March and April this year brought back bad memories of 2008. To avoid getting more burnt than they already had been, several investors fled to cash, exiting their equity portfolios to safeguard them from further losses. But is now the time to get back into equities. The Chief Investment Officer of Steadyhand Investment Funds, Tom Bradley has called this decision of when to get back into the market after you get out the hardest decision in investing. He is here today to talk about why. Tom, thank you so much for being here today.

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Tom Bradley: Thanks for having me, Ruth.

Saldanha: First up, does panic selling ever work? Put another way for individual investors, does it ever pay to go with your gut?

Bradley: Well, I know some pretty savvy investors and – who have a pretty good gut. But for the vast majority of investing the gut – you going with your gut does not work indeed. And indeed, investors like me have taken Warren Buffett’s lead, and we actually trade against the average investors gut. And what I mean by that is, you’ll remember Warren’s great comment about it’s time to be – “be fearful when everybody is greedy, and greedy when everybody is fearful.” And that is exactly speaking to the fact that generally, when times get tough, stocks are down.

The gut that we’re talking about is actually churning. And the easiest way to relieve that pain is to do something like sell out. So, yes, it can work for sure. But I think what makes it so hard and why I call it the hardest decision is not the first decision to sell, it’s the second one and it’s only successful strategy if you get both decisions, relatively correct. And we’ll talk about that for sure. But I should say that this isn’t just sort of an imaginary issue BlackRock did some research late in the cycle, the last cycle, we had ’09 to call it to ’19. And their research showed that Canadians on average had over half of their retirement assets in cash or cash like instruments. So, BGICs and things like that. Many, many Canadians missed the last bull market because they were so scarred by what happened in ’08, ’09. And so, this is a very real issue out there for investors.

Saldanha: And is that the reason that this decision is perhaps the hardest one investors will make?

Bradley: You know, there is lots of reasons, I’ll give you three. First of all, if you think about going from, you know, an average investor goes from a balanced portfolio all to cash they are so far from their long-term plan, farther than they’ve probably ever been. And so, the stakes are really high. Now, they’ll sleep better for a few nights because their portfolio won’t be bouncing around. But one of those mornings they’re going to wake up, and they’re going to realize they have a huge decision because they’re so far away from where they should be. So, I think, you know, if you think about trying to put the puck in the net or write an exam, when the pressure is really on, that tends to lead to poor decisions. And so, I think the fact that the stakes are so high, you’re so far away from where you should be is one of the problems.

The other one is that you get – in our society, we get constant reinforcement as to why it’s the right thing to be out of the market. The media machine is generally biased towards negative news, the headlines are negative, Page 8 might be positive. And so, there is always something feeding your view that you should stay out of the market and in my observation, it makes it very hard for people to turn around and go the other way.

The third thing I’d mention, and it doesn’t always happen, but think about the cases where you sell out and you’re wrong. The market, for instance, last month say you sold out in late March, here we are in – heading in – further into the spring, and markets are back up. And, boy, that makes it really tough to get back in because you’re so worried about, you’ve made a bad decision already, and you’re worried about whipsawing. So, I think there is just all kinds of things that make it behaviorally. As I say, the toughest decision in investing.

Saldanha: Well, the fear that accompanies these market crashes is understandable. How should investors prepare psychologically to venture into equities and face those volatility again? And are there any investment tips that could perhaps make it easier?

Bradley: You know, it’s the $64,000 question, Ruth, I think about this a lot because I do study investor behavior, and I think the main thing is somebody has to, you know, after they get out and things have settled, they need to sit down and think about – go back to square one, what is the purpose of the money. If the money is for a vacation or a college tuition or whatever, that’s fine, keep it in cash. But if it is to fund a retirement over 10, 20, 30 years, then they need to figure out what that should look like. So, I think that’s number one. Maybe one of the easiest little cues to help get people in us to think about investing only the money that you’re going to need in 20 years. Forget about even 10 years, even though that’s pretty long term. Think about the money that’s longer term, because you should certainly be able to handle the volatility for that kind of money.

The other thing I’d say, and this is maybe a plug-in for Morningstar, but I think people, I often offer them a long-term, even a 100 year chart of stocks, to show them that that chart goes up and to the right and the crash in ’87, the tech wreck, the financial crisis of ’08, ’09 and now the COVID crisis all as you look longer and longer term look more insignificant in the scheme of things. And so, I don’t have an easy answer for that one, Ruth, I think you almost got to trick yourself behaviorally, but you do need to go at it.

Saldanha: Finally, what are some of the ways to safeguard a portfolio from volatility?

Bradley: Ruth, you can’t avoid volatility in these times. You know, Ruth, all kidding aside, you know, rates are – interest rates are where they are we – you know, our parents talked about the day when they could buy a bond and they earned a 3% or 4% real return after inflation and they didn’t have to worry about stocks. That isn’t the case today. Fixed income investments safety in the sense is very expensive, so you’re losing ground to inflation. So, I don’t think you can totally avoid it even as retired. I think, number one, you need to accept that your portfolio – at least part of your portfolio is going to bounce around a little bit. Prepare for it both mentally, but also cash flow wise if you’re – certainly if you’re retired, make sure you have a spending reserve set aside so that some of – the rest of your portfolio can bounce around.

And then I think the biggest dial that we all have on our dashboard, as far as dealing with volatility is asset mix. So, if you can’t stomach the asset mix or the volatility that goes with really aggressive portfolios, then you dial it down on less stocks, on less high yield, on more secure investments like GICs, government bonds, et cetera. So, no easy answer there. And we all have to accept some volatility in our investing approach, but the asset mix is the way to kind of dial it up or down.

Saldanha: Thank you so much for joining us with your perspectives, Tom.

Bradley: Thanks, Ruth.

Saldanha: For Morningstar, I’m Ruth Saldanha.

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Investment Statistics (10 Investment Statistics Investors Need To Know) – Forbes

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Understanding investment markets can be difficult, as there’s so much information to sort through. Fortunately, you don’t need to understand every single concept or piece of data to have success as an investor.

A few important, simple and often surprising investment statistics can guide your choices and make you a better investor in the long term. Here are a few worth considering.

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1. The Annual Return of the S&P 500 (10% Per Year)

The stock market has been a consistent way to build wealth over the past 100 years. Likewise, from April 1, 1936 through March 31, 2024, the S&P 500 Index–a widely followed barometer for the broad U.S. stock market–averaged an annual return of 10.75%.

To put that return into perspective, if you earn 10% per year on your savings, and your gains compound quarterly, you’ll double your money roughly every seven years. Put $20,000 in an S&P 500 fund today, and if you earn the historical return of 10% per year, you’ll have $40,000 in about seven years.

Of course, the stock market is unpredictable and goes through swings. Your portfolio might go down some years and up by more than 10% in others. The key takeaway is that the stock market posts a substantial average annual return over time.

2. The Average Annual Inflation Rate (3.8% Per Year)

Inflation is another reason why it’s essential to invest. When prices go up, the purchasing power of each of your dollars goes down. On average, U.S. inflation has been 3.8% percent per year from 1960 to 2022. If you aren’t earning at least that much on your money, it’s losing value. Your balance might stay the same in a bank account, but it buys less and less, making you poorer.

Investments like stocks historically outperform inflation. By investing some of your money in stocks and stock funds, your savings and spending power can keep up with rising prices.

3. The Number of Active Day Traders Who Lose Money (80%)

Using an index fund, you can often match the performance of the entire S&P 500 and various major stock markets. This is different from buying and selling–or trading–individual stocks. Trading individual stocks can be exciting when it succeeds, leading sometimes to sharp short-term gains, but profiting consistently is very hard.

In fact, 75% of day traders trying to invest professionally quit within two years, and 80% of their trades are unprofitable, according to a University of Berkeley study. And individual stock day traders working through a taxable account often generate short-term capital gains, which are taxed at higher ordinary income rates than long-term capital gains. Day traders can also trigger a lot of investment fees. Also, as a day trader you’re competing against the best professional investors on Wall Street, many backed by big research teams.

Most regular investors are better off using mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, that aim to match the stock market instead. It’s less exciting but still lucrative in the long term.

4. The Cost of an Index Fund vs. an Active Fund for a $1 Million Portfolio ($1,200 vs. $6,000 Per Year)

If you’re trying to pick an investment fund, consider the cost. An index fund keeps costs low by simply trying to mimic the performance of a specific segment of the market. The S&P 500 is one. It consists of 500 of the largest companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges. The Nasdaq 100 consists of stocks issued by 100 of the largest nonfinancial businesses listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange.

Many index funds track each of those groups. Generally, their costs are kept low because they don’t have to pay for lots of investors, analysts and software wizards to find stocks. In contrast, actively managed funds do pay for talented people who can pick stocks that outperform. Those costs get passed on to shareholders like you.

Index funds, on average, charge 0.12% per year versus the 0.60% charged by active investment funds. That means on a $1 million portfolio, you’d pay $1,200 per year for an index fund versus $6,000 a year for an active fund.

Despite charging much more, 79% of active funds, trying to earn higher returns, underperformed the S&P 500 in 2021. Often, you’re paying extra fees for actively managed funds without getting any additional return in exchange.

5. The Average Length of a Bear Market (14 Months)

One drawback to investing is that your returns are not guaranteed. In some years you’ll earn a lot. In others, your portfolio could lose money. It’s not fun to lose money, but during this stretch, remind yourself that the market will turn around eventually.

The average historical bear market, a period when stocks are losing value, has lasted 14 months. On the other hand, the average historical bull market, when stocks go up in value, has lasted five years.

The market will go through cycles of gains and losses. Remember that the positive stretches last longer than the negative ones.

6. The Number of ‘Best Investing Days’ That Can Turn a Positive Portfolio Negative If Missed (20 Days Over Two Decades)

When the market crashes, you might feel tempted to cash out and wait until things start picking up again. This is one of the most expensive mistakes investors make.

Why is that? Because so much of the stock market’s long-term returns come from single-day gains. The market sometimes shoots up by 5%, 7% or even 10% in a single day. Those days are impossible to predict. And they often occur at the start of a rally.

Individual retail investors often miss those explosive, unexpected upturns because they cashed out or moved to bonds amid the market’s earlier downturn.

A JPMorgan report found that if investors missed the top 10 best days of investing over a two-decade period from January 1999 to December 2018, it cut their portfolio return in half. If investors missed the top 20 best investing days, their return turned negative, meaning that they lost money over that two-decade period. Don’t try to time the market. Stay invested for the long term for the best results.

7. The Monthly Investment Needed to Reach $1 Million If You Start at Age 25 vs. Age 45 ($350 vs. $1,650)

The earlier you start investing, the more time you have to build wealth. This makes it easier to hit your long-term financial goals.

Let’s say you want $1 million in your nest egg for retirement at age 67. You expect to earn 7% a year, a reasonable return for a portfolio of stocks and bonds. If you start at age 25, you would need to save about $350 per month. If you start at age 45, you must save around $1,650 a month.

If you’re still early in your career, consider ways to save more money. Even a little extra today will make reaching your future financial goals easier. Don’t get discouraged if you are later in your career. You may wish you had started earlier, but anything you put aside now will help you once you retire. As the saying goes, perhaps the best time to start was years ago, but the second-best is now.

8. The Number of People With a Workplace Retirement Plan (44%)

A workplace retirement plan, like a 401(k), can help you invest. Those plans let you save money and defer yearly tax on growth in your investments inside your account. With a traditional 401(k), you also get a tax deduction for the money you kick into your account. In most cases, your employer also contributes to your account.

Only 44% of American workers have access to a workplace retirement plan. If you have one, study how it works to take full advantage.

The majority of workers, 56%, do not have a retirement plan at their job. Consider an individual retirement account, or IRA, if you are in that situation. It offers similar tax advantages for your retirement savings and investment goals.

9. The Expected Life Expectancy of Males and Females Turning 65 (82 and 85 Years)

The top reason most people invest is to save for retirement. And retirement might last a lot longer than you expect. The typical male turning 65 today is expected to live until 82, while females are expected to live until 85, according to the Social Security Administration.

That is a retirement lasting an average of nearly two decades. Some people will live even longer, reaching 90, 100 or even older. This is why saving and investing regularly is important—to build extra savings to fund your retirement lifestyle.

10. The Average Baby Boomer 401(k) Balance ($230,900)

Fidelity measured the average 401(k) balance by age of its customers. This can give you an idea of where your savings stack up against your peers:

  • Gen Z: $9,800
  • Millennials: $54,000
  • Gen X: $165,300
  • Baby Boomers: $230,900

This represents investments in a 401(k). People may have more money in an IRA or other investment account. Still, those figures show that the typical person does not retire with $1 million. Therefore, you shouldn’t feel behind if you’re just starting to save for retirement. Do what you can to beat these averages and grow your portfolio.

Hopefully, these statistics help shed some light on the importance of investing and investing wisely. Consider meeting with a financial advisor to discuss your portfolio for more advice.

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Deutsche Bank's Investment Bankers Step Up as Rate Boost Fades – Yahoo Canada Finance

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(Bloomberg) — Deutsche Bank AG relied on its traders and investment bankers to make up for a slowdown in income from lending, as Chief Executive Officer Christian Sewing seeks to deliver on an ambitious revenue goal.

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Fixed income trading rose 7% in the first quarter, more than analysts had expected and better than most of the biggest US investment banks. Income from advising on deals and stock and bond sales jumped 54%.

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Revenue for the group rose about 1% as the prospect of falling interest rates hurt the corporate bank and the private bank that houses the retail business.

Sewing has vowed to improve profitability and lift revenue to €30 billion this year, a goal some analysts view with skepticism as the end of the rapid rate increases weighs on revenue from lending. In the role for six years, the CEO is cutting thousands of jobs in the back office to curb costs while building out the advisory business with last year’s purchase of Numis Corp. to boost fee income.

“We are very pleased” with the investment bank, Chief Financial Officer James von Moltke said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. The trends of the first quarter “have continued into April,” he said, including “a slower macro environment” that’s being offset by “momentum in credit” and emerging markets.

While traders and investment bankers did well, revenue at the corporate bank declined 5% on lower net interest income. Private bank revenue fell about 2%. Both units benefited when central banks raised interest rates over the past two years, allowing them to charge more for loans while still paying relatively little for deposits.

With inflation slowing and interest rates set to fall again, that effect is reversing, though markets have scaled back expectations for how quickly and how deep central banks are likely to cut. That’s lifted shares of Europe’s lenders recently, with Deutsche Bank gaining 25% this year.

“Deutsche Bank reported a reasonable set of results,” analysts Thomas Hallett and Andrew Stimpson at KBW wrote in a note. “The investment bank performed well while the corporate bank and asset management underperformed.”

–With assistance from Macarena Muñoz and Oliver Crook.

(Updates with CFO comments in fifth paragraph.)

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How Can I Invest in Eco-friendly Companies? – CB – CanadianBusiness.com

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Welcome to CB’s personal-finance advice column, Make It Make Sense, where each month experts answer reader questions on complex investment and personal-finance topics and break them down in terms we can all understand. This month, Damir Alnsour, a lead advisor and portfolio manager at money-management platform Wealthsimple, tackles eco-friendly investments. Have a question about your finances? Send it to [email protected].


Q: It’s Earth Month! And… there’s a climate crisis. How can I invest in companies and portfolios funding causes I believe in?

Earth Day may have been introduced in 1970, but today it’s more relevant than ever: In a 2023 survey, 72 per cent of Canadians said they were worried about climate change. Along with carpooling, ditching single-use plastics and composting, you can celebrate Earth Month this year by greening your investment portfolio.

Green investing, or buying shares in projects, companies, or funds that are committed to environmental sustainability, is an excellent way to support projects and businesses that reflect your passions and lifestyle choices. It’s growing in favour among Canadian investors, but there are some considerations investors should be mindful of. Let’s review some green investing options and what to look out for.

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Green Bonds

Green bonds are a fixed-income instrument where the proceeds are put toward climate-related purposes. In 2022, the Canadian government launched its first Green Bond Framework, which saw strong demand from domestic and global investors. This resulted in a record $11 billion green bonds being sold. One warning: Because it’s a smaller market, green bonds tend to be less liquid than many other investments.

It’s also important to note that a “green” designation can mean a lot of different things. And they’re not always all that environmentally-guided. Some companies use broad, vague terms to explain how the funds will be used, and they end up using the money they raised with the bond sale to pay for other corporate needs that aren’t necessarily eco-friendly. There’s also the practice of “greenwashing,” labelling investments as “green” for marketing campaigns without actually doing the hard work required to improve their environmental footprint.

To make things more challenging, funds and asset managers themselves can partake in greenwashing. Many funds that purport to be socially responsible still hold oil and gas stocks, just fewer of them than other funds. Or they own shares of the “least problematic” of the oil and gas companies, thereby touting emission reductions without clearly disclosing the extent of those improvements. As with any type of investing, it’s important to do your research and understand exactly what you’re investing in.

Socially Responsible Investing (SRI) and Impact Investing

SRI and impact investing portfolios hold a mix of stocks and bonds that are intended to put your money towards projects and companies that work to advance progressive social outcomes or address a social issue—i.e., investing in companies that don’t wreak havoc on society. They can include companies promoting sustainable growth, diverse workforces and equitable hiring practices.

The main difference between the two approaches is that SRI uses a measurable criteria to qualify or disqualify companies as socially responsible, while impact investing typically aims to help an enterprise produce some social or environmental benefit.

Related: Climate Change Is Influencing How Young People Invest Their Money

Some financial institutions use the two approaches to build well-diversified, low-cost, socially responsible portfolios that align with most clients’ environmental and societal preferences. That said, not all portfolios are constructed with the same care. As with evaluating green bonds, it’s important to remember that a company or fund having an SRI designation or saying it partakes in impact investing is subjective. There’s always a risk of not knowing exactly where and with whom the money is being invested.

All three of these options are good reminders that, even though you may feel helpless to enact environmental or social change in the face of larger systemic issues, your choices can still support the well-being of society and the planet. So, if you have extra funds this April (maybe from your tax return?), green or social investing are solid options. As long as you do thorough research and understand some of the limitations, you’re sure to find investments that are both good for the world and your finances.

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