One of the most famous annual meteor showers is reaching its peak — the Leonids. These ultrafast meteors are due to crest overnight tonight and into early Tuesday morning (Nov. 16-17).
The Leonids are known for producing some of the most amazing meteor displays in the annals of astronomy. Most notable are meteor storms in 1799, 1833 and 1966, when meteor rates of tens of thousands per hour were observed. More recently, in 1999, 2001 and 2002, lesser Leonid displays of “only” a few thousand meteors per hour took place.
Unfortunately, those turn-of-the-century showers gave some skywatchers the impression that they could expect a similar occurrence of celestial fireworks from the Leonids every year. So, it is important to stress at the outset that any suggestion of a spectacular meteor Leonid display this year is, to put it mildly, overly optimistic.
If you’re expecting a memorable sky show early on Tuesday morning, we’re sorry to break this to you: The 2020 version of the Leonids is more than likely going to be a disappointment, since the shower will probably be weak and there likely will be long stretches when not a single one will be seen.
The Leonids received their moniker because the shower’s emanation point — the spot from which the meteors seem to fan out — is located within the constellation of Leo, the Lion, from within the backward question mark pattern of stars known as “The Sickle.”
The meteors are caused by Comet Tempel-Tuttle, which sweeps through the inner solar system every 33.3 years. Each time the comet passes closest to the sun, it leaves a “river of rubble” in its wake — a dense trail of dusty debris. A meteor storm is possible only if Earth passes directly through a fresh dust trail ejected by the comet over the past couple of centuries.
The lion’s share (no pun intended) of comet dust can be found just ahead of and trailing behind Tempel-Tuttle. The comet last swept through the inner solar system in 1998. That’s why spectacular meteor showers were seen in 1999, 2001 and 2002, with declining numbers thereafter.
In 2016, Tempel-Tuttle reached aphelion, the point in its orbit that’s farthest from the sun —1.84 billion miles (2.96 billion kilometers). Now the comet is on its way back toward the inner solar system and will sweep closest to the sun again in May 2031.
But it’s also in the general vicinity of the comet where the heaviest concentrations of meteoroids are found as well. In contrast, at the point in the comet’s orbit that Earth will be passing through on Tuesday morning, there’s only a scattering of particles, bits of comet debris that crumbled off the comet’s frozen nucleus perhaps a millennia or two ago.
So, the 2020 Leonids are expected to show only low activity this year. Mikhail Maslov, a highly regarded Russian expert in meteor shower predictions, forecasts a “plateau-like” level of maximum activity, which he suggests will stay approximately at the same level — about 15 per hour — during the period from 0300 GMT to 2000 GMT on Nov. 17 (10:00 p.m. to 3 p.m. EST on Nov. 16-17).
Canadian meteor forecasters Margaret Campbell-Brown and Peter Brown are a little more optimistic. In the 2020 “Observer’s Handbook of the Royal Astronomical Society of Canada,” the duo suggest rates of up to 20 per hour, with a maximum occurring at 1200 GMT (7 a.m. EST) on Nov. 17. That comes at or before sunrise throughout much of North America.
The International Meteor Organization forecasts rates of 10 to 20 per hour, with a peak at around 1100 GMT (6 a.m. EST) on Nov. 17. The moon is just past new and will pose no interference whatsoever. But whatever forecast you trust, be mindful that even at their very best, Leonids are expected to dart across your line of sight on an average of once every 3 to 6 minutes. And that’s assuming you have a wide-open view of the entire sky and are blessed with dark, non-light polluted conditions.
How to observe and what to look for
Watching a meteor shower is a relatively straightforward pursuit. It consists of lying back, looking up at the sky and waiting. Keep in mind that any local light pollution or obstructions like tall trees or buildings will further reduce your chances of making a meteor sighting.
Leo does not start coming fully into view until the after-midnight hours, so that would be the best time to concentrate on looking for Leonids. As dawn is about to break at around 5 a.m. local time, The Sickle will have climbed more than two-thirds of the way up from the southeast horizon to the point directly overhead (called the zenith).
Also, because the Leonids are moving along in their orbit around the sun in a direction opposite to that of Earth, they slam into our atmosphere nearly head-on, resulting in the fastest meteor velocities possible: 45 miles (72 km) per second. Such speeds tend to produce bright meteors, which leave long-lasting streaks or vapor trains in their wake.
A mighty Leonid fireball can be quite spectacular, but such outstandingly bright meteors are likely to be very few and very far between this year (if any are seen at all).
A look ahead
The good news is that, as Comet Tempel-Tuttle draws closer to the sun, the Leonids are expected to slowly improve. According to Maslov, a greater preponderance of bright meteors is possible, especially in 2022 and 2025. But the truly spectacular Leonid shows will not start coming until 2033, when both Maslov and another well-known forecaster, the Frenchman Jeremie Vaubaillion, predict hourly rates of several hundred or more possible. And the very best years of the next Leonid cycle will likely be in 2034 and 2035.
In 2034, debris shed by Tempel-Tuttle from the year 1699 should lead to anywhere from 400 to 1600 Leonids per hour, followed some hours later by another surge of activity from material shed by the comet in 1767; 250 to 1000 Leonids per hour are possible. Finally, in 2035, 300 to 900 Leonids are possible from a dusty meteoroid trail dating back to 1633.
But if you can’t wait until then, here’s some good news: A prolific meteor shower is coming our way in less than a month: the December Geminids, now considered to be the best meteor shower of the year, producing over 100 per hour. They are expected to peak on the night of Dec 13. Space.com will provide you with all the details as we get closer to that date. So, stay tuned!
Joe Rao serves as an instructor and guest lecturer at New York’s Hayden Planetarium. He writes about astronomy for Natural History magazine, the Farmers’ Almanac and other publications. Follow us on Twitter @Spacedotcom and on Facebook.
NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — The body of Ugandan Olympic athlete Rebecca Cheptegei — who died after being set on fire by her partner in Kenya — was received Friday by family and anti-femicide crusaders, ahead of her burial a day later.
Cheptegei’s family met with dozens of activists Friday who had marched to the Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital’s morgue in the western city of Eldoret while chanting anti-femicide slogans.
She is the fourth female athlete to have been killed by her partner in Kenya in yet another case of gender-based violence in recent years.
Viola Cheptoo, the founder of Tirop Angels – an organization that was formed in honor of athlete Agnes Tirop, who was stabbed to death in 2021, said stakeholders need to ensure this is the last death of an athlete due to gender-based violence.
“We are here to say that enough is enough, we are tired of burying our sisters due to GBV,” she said.
It was a somber mood at the morgue as athletes and family members viewed Cheptegei’s body which sustained 80% of burns after she was doused with gasoline by her partner Dickson Ndiema. Ndiema sustained 30% burns on his body and later succumbed.
Ndiema and Cheptegei were said to have quarreled over a piece of land that the athlete bought in Kenya, according to a report filed by the local chief.
Cheptegei competed in the women’s marathon at the Paris Olympics less than a month before the attack. She finished in 44th place.
Cheptegei’s father, Joseph, said that the body will make a brief stop at their home in the Endebess area before proceeding to Bukwo in eastern Uganda for a night vigil and burial on Saturday.
“We are in the final part of giving my daughter the last respect,” a visibly distraught Joseph said.
He told reporters last week that Ndiema was stalking and threatening Cheptegei and the family had informed police.
Four in 10 women or an estimated 41% of dating or married Kenyan women have experienced physical or sexual violence perpetrated by their current or most recent partner, according to the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey 2022.
TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — A rare Bronze-Era jar accidentally smashed by a 4-year-old visiting a museum was back on display Wednesday after restoration experts were able to carefully piece the artifact back together.
Last month, a family from northern Israel was visiting the museum when their youngest son tipped over the jar, which smashed into pieces.
Alex Geller, the boy’s father, said his son — the youngest of three — is exceptionally curious, and that the moment he heard the crash, “please let that not be my child” was the first thought that raced through his head.
The jar has been on display at the Hecht Museum in Haifa for 35 years. It was one of the only containers of its size and from that period still complete when it was discovered.
The Bronze Age jar is one of many artifacts exhibited out in the open, part of the Hecht Museum’s vision of letting visitors explore history without glass barriers, said Inbal Rivlin, the director of the museum, which is associated with Haifa University in northern Israel.
It was likely used to hold wine or oil, and dates back to between 2200 and 1500 B.C.
Rivlin and the museum decided to turn the moment, which captured international attention, into a teaching moment, inviting the Geller family back for a special visit and hands-on activity to illustrate the restoration process.
Rivlin added that the incident provided a welcome distraction from the ongoing war in Gaza. “Well, he’s just a kid. So I think that somehow it touches the heart of the people in Israel and around the world,“ said Rivlin.
Roee Shafir, a restoration expert at the museum, said the repairs would be fairly simple, as the pieces were from a single, complete jar. Archaeologists often face the more daunting task of sifting through piles of shards from multiple objects and trying to piece them together.
Experts used 3D technology, hi-resolution videos, and special glue to painstakingly reconstruct the large jar.
Less than two weeks after it broke, the jar went back on display at the museum. The gluing process left small hairline cracks, and a few pieces are missing, but the jar’s impressive size remains.
The only noticeable difference in the exhibit was a new sign reading “please don’t touch.”
VICTORIA – The British Columbia government is partnering with a bear welfare group to reduce the number of bears being euthanized in the province.
Nicholas Scapillati, executive director of Grizzly Bear Foundation, said Monday that it comes after months-long discussions with the province on how to protect bears, with the goal to give the animals a “better and second chance at life in the wild.”
Scapillati said what’s exciting about the project is that the government is open to working with outside experts and the public.
“So, they’ll be working through Indigenous knowledge and scientific understanding, bringing in the latest techniques and training expertise from leading experts,” he said in an interview.
B.C. government data show conservation officers destroyed 603 black bears and 23 grizzly bears in 2023, while 154 black bears were killed by officers in the first six months of this year.
Scapillati said the group will publish a report with recommendations by next spring, while an independent oversight committee will be set up to review all bear encounters with conservation officers to provide advice to the government.
Environment Minister George Heyman said in a statement that they are looking for new ways to ensure conservation officers “have the trust of the communities they serve,” and the panel will make recommendations to enhance officer training and improve policies.
Lesley Fox, with the wildlife protection group The Fur-Bearers, said they’ve been calling for such a committee for decades.
“This move demonstrates the government is listening,” said Fox. “I suspect, because of the impending election, their listening skills are potentially a little sharper than they normally are.”
Fox said the partnership came from “a place of long frustration” as provincial conservation officers kill more than 500 black bears every year on average, and the public is “no longer tolerating this kind of approach.”
“I think that the conservation officer service and the B.C. government are aware they need to change, and certainly the public has been asking for it,” said Fox.
Fox said there’s a lot of optimism about the new partnership, but, as with any government, there will likely be a lot of red tape to get through.
“I think speed is going to be important, whether or not the committee has the ability to make change and make change relatively quickly without having to study an issue to death, ” said Fox.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 9, 2024.
