THE PANDEMIC caused a fearsome economic slump, but now a weird, exhilarating boom is in full swing. The oil price has soared, while restaurants and haulage firms are having to fight and flatter to recruit staff. As listed firms signal that profits will hit an all-time high this year, stockmarkets are on a tear. An index produced by JPMorgan Chase and IHS Markit suggests that global growth is at its highest since the exuberant days of 2006.
Any escape from covid-19 is a cause for celebration. But today’s booming economy is also a source of anxiety, because three fault lines lie beneath the surface. Together, they will determine who prospers, and whether the most unusual recovery in living memory can be sustained.
The first fault line divides the jabs from the jab-nots. Only those countries getting vaccinations into arms will be able to tame covid-19. That is the condition for shops, bars and offices to reopen permanently, and customers and workers to have the confidence to leave their homes. But only one in four people around the world has had a first dose of vaccine and only one in eight is fully protected. Even in America some under-vaccinated states are vulnerable to the infectious Delta variant of the virus.
The second fault line runs between supply and demand. Shortages of microchips have disrupted the manufacture of electronics and cars just when consumers want to binge on them. The cost of shipping goods from China to ports on America’s west coast has quadrupled from its pre-pandemic level. Even as these bottlenecks are unblocked, newly open economies will create fresh imbalances. In some countries people seem keener to go for a drink than they do to work behind the bar, causing a structural labour shortage in the service sector. House prices have surged, suggesting that rents will soon start to rise, too. That could sustain inflation and deepen the sense that housing is unaffordable.
The final fault line is over the withdrawal of stimulus. At some point, the state interventions that began last year must be reversed. Rich-world central banks have bought assets worth over $10trn since the pandemic began and are nervously considering how to extricate themselves without causing a flap in capital markets by tightening too fast. China, whose economy did not shrink in 2020, offers a sign of what is to come: it has tightened credit policy this year, slowing its growth.
Meanwhile, emergency government-aid schemes, such as unemployment-insurance top-ups and eviction moratoriums, are beginning to expire. Households are unlikely to get a fresh infusion of “stimmies” in 2022. Deficits will contract rather than expand, dragging down growth. So far, economies have largely avoided a wave of damaging bankruptcies but nobody knows how well firms will cope once emergency loans come due and workers can no longer be furloughed at taxpayers’ expense.
You might think that an event as extreme as a pandemic, combined with the unprecedented government response to it, would eventually trigger an equally extreme global economic reaction. Pessimists worry about a return to 1970s-style inflation, or a financial crash, or that capitalism’s underlying energy will be drained by state handouts. Such apocalyptic outcomes are possible, but they are not likely. Instead a better way to think about the unusual outlook is to examine how the three fault lines interact differently in different economies.
Start with America. With abundant vaccines and enormous stimulus, it is at the biggest risk of overheating. In recent months inflation has reached levels not seen since the early 1980s. Its labour market is coming under strain as economic activity shifts. Even after a rise of 850,000 in the number of jobs in June and accounting for abundant vacancies, the number of people working in leisure and hospitality is 12% lower than before the pandemic. Workers are reluctant to return to the industry, which has pushed up wages. Hourly pay is almost 8% higher than in February 2020. Perhaps they will come back when emergency unemployment benefits expire in September. But countries without such a scheme, like Australia, are also seeing a labour shortage. Attitudes to work may be changing at the bottom of the income spectrum, among waiters and cleaners, not just among well-heeled professionals who dream of yachts and sabbaticals. All this suggests that America’s economy will run hot, with continual pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten policy.
Elsewhere in the rich world the picture is less exuberant. It includes some jab-nots, like Japan, which has fully vaccinated less than 15% of its population. Europe is catching up on vaccines, but its smaller stimulus means that inflation has not reached American levels. In Britain, France and Switzerland 8-13% of employees remained on furlough schemes at the end of May. In all these economies the risk is that policymakers overreact to temporary, imported inflation, withdrawing support too quickly. If so, their economies will suffer, just as the euro area suffered after the financial crisis of 2007-09.
Low- and middle-income countries are in a bind. They should be benefiting from surging global demand for commodities and factory goods, but they are struggling. Indonesia, battling another covid-19 wave, is redeploying oxygen from industry to hospitals. In 2021 the poorest countries, which are desperately short of vaccines, are forecast to grow more slowly than rich countries for only the third time in 25 years.
Even as covid-19 weakens their recoveries, emerging markets face the prospect of higher interest rates at the Fed. That tends to put downward pressure on their currencies as investors buy dollars, raising the risk of financial instability. Their central banks do not have the luxury of ignoring temporary or imported inflation. Brazil, Mexico and Russia have raised interest rates recently, and more places may follow. The combination of jabbing too late and tightening too soon will be painful.
Prepare to take shelter
The economic cycle has been frantic, leaving the slump far behind in only a year. Perhaps by the summer of 2022 most people will be vaccinated, business will have adapted to new patterns of demand and stimulus will be unwinding in an orderly way. In this weird boom, however, beware those fault lines. ■
This article appeared in the Leaders section of the print edition under the headline “Fault lines in the world economy”
China's economy recovering but foundation not solid, premier says – Financial Post
BEIJING — China’s economy has recovered to some extent, but its foundation is not solid, state media on Tuesday quoted Premier Li Keqiang as saying.
China will strive to drive the economy back onto a normal track and bring down the jobless rate as soon as possible, Li was quoted as saying.
“Currently, the implementation of the policy package to stabilize the economy is accelerating and taking effect. The economy has recovered on the whole, but the foundation is not yet solid,” Li was quoted as saying.
“The task of stabilizing employment remains arduous.”
China’s economy showed signs of recovery in May after slumping the previous month as industrial production revived, but consumption remained weak and underlined the challenge for policymakers amid the persistent drag from strict COVID-19 curbs.
China’s nationwide survey-based jobless rate fell to 5.9% in May from 6.1% in April, still above the government’s 2022 target of below 5.5%.
In particular, the surveyed jobless rate in 31 major cities picked up to 6.9%, the highest on record. Some economists expect employment to worsen before it gets better, with a record number of graduates entering the workforce in summer.
Li vowed to achieve reasonable economic growth in the second quarter, although some private-sector economists expect the economy to shrink in the April-June quarter from a year earlier, compared with the first quarter’s 4.8% growth.
(Reporting by Kevin Yao and Beijing newsroom; Editing by Andrew Heavens, William Maclean)
Economy sending mixed signals: Maybe a recession isn't coming – Axios
The job market is strong. Layoffs are happening. Businesses are pessimistic. Consumers are still spending.
- If you’re having a hard time figuring out this economy, you’re not alone — it’s sending all sorts of mixed signals.
Why it matters: The inflation crisis — namely record gas prices — has plunged consumer sentiment to an all-time low.
- Meanwhile, the Fed’s bid to wrest control of price spikes by imposing interest-rate hikes is having far-reaching effects.
The big picture: Depending on where you focus your attention, the economy can look nowhere near as bad as some people say — or that we’re heading for a total face-plant:
- The unemployment rate is only about a point away from an all-time low, but companies like Redfin, Netflix and Coinbase are cutting workers.
- Business optimism hit the lowest point in the 12 years of JPMorgan Chase’s Business Leaders Outlook Pulse survey, released today. But durable goods orders rose 0.7% in May, according to figures released today, signaling that companies were still spending.
- Mortgage rates are pricing many buyers out of the housing market — but median home price growth held steady for a third straight week last week.
Reality check: The pandemic triggered a period of profound economic disruption, leaving some of the economic tea leaves harder to read than in past cycles.
- Much of what seems today like conflicting or inconsistent data could simply be the result of an economy on the brink of change.
What they’re saying: “As people learned to live with COVID-19 and prove resilient so far to higher prices at the checkout stand, economic momentum will likely protect the U.S economy this year,” S&P Global Ratings U.S. chief economist Beth Ann Bovino said Monday in a statement. “What’s around the bend in 2023 is the bigger worry.”
The bottom line: Uncertainty is toxic for investor and consumer sentiment.
Analysis | What Is the 'Special Debt' China Uses to Spur Its Economy? – The Washington Post
China’s government is cash-strapped with Covid-19, tax breaks and a property downturn pulling down income while spending keeps rising to pay for economic stimulus and containing virus outbreaks. One option Beijing has to fill the gap is to sell special sovereign bonds, a rarely used financing tool it last dusted off in 2020 to help lift the economy without inflating the budget deficit. Before that, they were employed during the Asian financial crisis in the 1990s and to help seed China’s sovereign wealth fund in 2007.
1. What are special sovereign bonds?
Unlike regular government debt, special bonds raise cash for a certain policy or to help solve a particular problem. They are not part of China’s official budget and thus not included in deficit calculations. The State Council, China’s cabinet, can propose the sale of such bonds, which then requires approval only by a standing committee of the National People’s Congress, which generally meets every two months, rather than the full legislative body, which meets only once a year. That means they can be issued in a more flexible way than regular bonds, which have to be planned for in the budget and approved by the annual session of the NPC.
2. Why use this tool now?
China has a target for gross domestic product growth of around 5.5% for this year, but with Covid lockdowns and a property slump, economists say the government is nowhere close to achieving that. One way President Xi Jinping is hoping to fuel a faster recovery is by spending trillions of yuan on infrastructure projects. Funding that kind of stimulus through the budget will be challenging though, given the plunge in tax revenues this year. Part of the financing will come from China’s state-owned development banks, like China Development Bank and Agricultural Development Bank of China, which have been given an additional 800 billion yuan ($120 billion) credit line to provide loans for infrastructure investment. Special sovereign bonds could be an additional source, given some were used for that purpose in 2020. Wang Yiming, an adviser to the central bank’s monetary policy committee, highlighted special national bonds as an option. More likely, the notes may be used to bridge the fiscal gap and finance the stimulus measures the government announced in May, according to Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. analysts Betty Wang and Xing Zhaopeng.
3. How were these bonds used before?
Some 1 trillion yuan of notes were sold in 2020, early in the pandemic. Exceptionally that time, the Communist Party’s all-powerful Politburo decided to sell the bonds and the NPC gave the official go-ahead at its full session in May. Some 700 billion yuan from that sale was transferred to local governments to support their Covid control efforts and infrastructure investment, according to a report by the Ministry of Finance. The rest was brought into the central government’s general public budget for subsidizing local spending on the outbreak, it shows. Before that:
• In 2007, 1.55 trillion yuan of special government bonds were issued to capitalize China Investment Corp., the sovereign wealth fund. The bond proceeds were used to buy currency reserves from the People’s Bank of China, and those funds then went to CIC. Some of the bonds worth around 950 billion yuan will come due in the second half of this year, Bloomberg-compiled data show.
• During the Asian financial crisis, China sold 270 billion yuan of special government bonds — at the time the country’s largest bond issue — to raise capital for its big state banks and help offset losses from nonperforming assets.
4. How might the bonds affect financial markets?
A surge of bond supply would drive down prices of the securities and push up yields. The issuance in mid-2020 helped to boost the yield on China’s 10-year government bond by more than 20 basis points in about three weeks, to a near six-month high. At the time, liquidity conditions were tight because of a deluge of local government bond supply before the special debt hit the market and the central bank’s cautious approach to monetary easing, in part to avoid fueling asset bubbles. The situation is different now. Interest rate cuts and other central bank easing measures mean the nation’s banks are flush with cash that they can use to soak up any extra bond supply. Also, local governments — which issue their own special bonds used mainly for infrastructure investment — have been ordered to sell almost all of this year’s quota of 3.65 trillion yuan of debt by the end of June. That should leave room for the market to absorb new debt issuances in the second half of 2022.
5. How much are we talking?
Jia Kang, a former head of a finance ministry research institute, said the 1 trillion yuan sold in 2020 could serve as a “reference” for policy makers when deciding on how much to issue this year. Others think it might be more. Larry Hu, head of China economics at Macquarie Group Ltd., estimated that the Covid outbreaks this year in China likely caused a budget shortfall of 1 trillion to 2 trillion yuan. A sale that size could contribute 1-2 percentage points to gross domestic product growth given the extra financial boost it will give local governments to spend, he estimated, adding the impact on the financial market is expected to be “limited.”
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