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The Canada Pension Plan (CPP) undergoes a significant evolution, shifting from a traditional approach to investment towards a more politically aligned strategy, sparking concerns among investors about its impact on financial returns. Photo credit: The Canadian Press/Adrian Wyld

It seems that it’s not your father’s CPP anymore. For the first few decades of its existence, the CPP was a very boring pension plan that employed just a handful of people, invested Canadians’ mandatory contributions very conservatively, produced modest and consistent investment returns and paid older Canadians a reliable monthly amount. The demographics of the baby boom generation helped CPP a great deal, as the CPP came into existence in 1965, when the early baby boomers were first starting to enter the workforce in their massive numbers. Baby boomers therefore started paying into the CPP when there were many fewer retired Canadians, such that the system could sustain itself even though it was not an established fund but rather a “pay as you go” system when the people paying into CPP directly funded those collecting CPP pensions. 

In the late 1990s, the Liberal government changed the financing of the CPP and created an actual investment fund separate from the government’s general revenues. This was a very good move considering demographic realities and it got away from the “pay as you go” model which was financially unsound toward an actual funded pension plan whose assets earned a rate of return annually and had properly evaluated actuarial foundations. The new fund was to be managed by a new government entity – the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB). 

Given past mismanagement of CPP monies, the Liberals had to almost double CPP premiums to make this change feasible, but it did mean that the plan was financially sustainable for many decades to come. Given how Canadians value the CPP and count on it as a key part of their retirement income, there was general support for this change despite the fact that employers and employees had to significantly increase their payment of CPP premiums. 

Since that change, the CPP investment fund has grown immensely to reach almost $600 billion. As such it is among the top 10 pension funds in the world in terms of assets. Since the Liberal changes to put the CPP on a more stable financial footing in the late 1990s, however, the CPPIB has grown significantly to include many more staff making very high incomes comparable to the well paid private sector investment firms on Bay Street and Wall Street, and making many more risky investments than their predecessors. 

Recent developments have led to CPP investments not necessarily being the best from the perspective of their rate of return to Canadians but rather their political alignment with the government of the day. A recent Fraser Institute report noted how the pursuit of ideological goals by public pension plans was becoming more widespread. In the case of the CPP, although its mandate is to earn the best financial return on assets, recent objectives of the fund have included such things as pushing society toward “net zero” emissions by encouraging government regulation and imposing environmental obligations onto corporations that it invests in. The Fraser Institute analysis concludes that when the CPPIB takes its eye off achieving the maximum investment return, it not surprisingly costs Canadians money by settling for  lower returns on their investments. The Fraser report can be found here.

This week’s Financial Update by Finance Minister Freeland widened the scope of the CPPIB to invest more broadly on the basis of political criteria, not investment returns, and also mandated that there will be more detailed reporting by the Board as to what sectors and industries in which it has invested. This enhanced reporting requirement is presumably to highlight whether the fund is investing in such things as the oil and gas industry or pipelines. The CPPIB has invested in fossil fuel companies and pipelines in Canada and abroad in recent years, as they produce a very good rate of return. To reduce these investments in future implies lower returns, especially considering the very positive prospects for the oil and gas industry in the coming years. 

The notion of the Board not being able to make these lucrative investments for political reasons should alarm all Canadians. We are all forced to pay into CPP, and the least we could ask for is that our money is invested in a way that achieves the maximum possible return. The notion that the Liberal government wants to alter the basic investment goals of the CPP that have been in place for decades should be of major concern to all Canadians. 

Catherine Swift is President of the Coalition of Concerned Manufacturers & Businesses of Canada (CCMBC). She was previously President of Working Canadians from 2015-2021 & President & CEO of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) from 1995-2014. She was Chief Economist of the CFIB from 1987-1995, Senior Economist with TD Bank from 1983-1987 & held several positions with the federal government from 1976-1983.

She has published numerous articles in journals, magazines & other media on issues such as free trade, finance, entrepreneurship & women business owners. Ms. Swift is a past President of the Empire Club of Canada, a former Director of the CD Howe Institute, the Canadian Youth Business Foundation, SOS Children’s Villages, past President of the International Small Business Congress and current Director of the Fraser Institute. She was cited in 2003 & 2012 as one of the most powerful women in Canada by the Women’s Executive Network & is a recipient of the Queen’s Silver & Gold Jubilee medals.

She has an Honours BA and MA in Economics.

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Economy

S&P/TSX composite down more than 200 points, U.S. stock markets also fall

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was down more than 200 points in late-morning trading, weighed down by losses in the technology, base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets also fell.

The S&P/TSX composite index was down 239.24 points at 22,749.04.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 312.36 points at 40,443.39. The S&P 500 index was down 80.94 points at 5,422.47, while the Nasdaq composite was down 380.17 points at 16,747.49.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.80 cents US compared with 74.00 cents US on Thursday.

The October crude oil contract was down US$1.07 at US$68.08 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up less than a penny at US$2.26 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$2.10 at US$2,541.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was down four cents at US$4.10 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 150 points, U.S. stock markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in technology, financial and energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also pushed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 171.41 points at 23,298.39.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 278.37 points at 41,369.79. The S&P 500 index was up 38.17 points at 5,630.35, while the Nasdaq composite was up 177.15 points at 17,733.18.

The Canadian dollar traded for 74.19 cents US compared with 74.23 cents US on Wednesday.

The October crude oil contract was up US$1.75 at US$76.27 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up less than a penny at US$2.10 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$18.70 at US$2,556.50 an ounce and the December copper contract was down less than a penny at US$4.22 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 29, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Crypto Market Bloodbath Amid Broader Economic Concerns

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The crypto market has recently experienced a significant downturn, mirroring broader risk asset sell-offs. Over the past week, Bitcoin’s price dropped by 24%, reaching $53,000, while Ethereum plummeted nearly a third to $2,340. Major altcoins also suffered, with Cardano down 27.7%, Solana 36.2%, Dogecoin 34.6%, XRP 23.1%, Shiba Inu 30.1%, and BNB 25.7%.

The severe downturn in the crypto market appears to be part of a broader flight to safety, triggered by disappointing economic data. A worse-than-expected unemployment report on Friday marked the beginning of a technical recession, as defined by the Sahm Rule. This rule identifies a recession when the three-month average unemployment rate rises by at least half a percentage point from its lowest point in the past year.

Friday’s figures met this threshold, signaling an abrupt economic downshift. Consequently, investors sought safer assets, leading to declines in major stock indices: the S&P 500 dropped 2%, the Nasdaq 2.5%, and the Dow 1.5%. This trend continued into Monday with further sell-offs overseas.

The crypto market’s rapid decline raises questions about its role as either a speculative asset or a hedge against inflation and recession. Despite hopes that crypto could act as a risk hedge, the recent crash suggests it remains a speculative investment.

Since the downturn, the crypto market has seen its largest three-day sell-off in nearly a year, losing over $500 billion in market value. According to CoinGlass data, this bloodbath wiped out more than $1 billion in leveraged positions within the last 24 hours, including $365 million in Bitcoin and $348 million in Ether.

Khushboo Khullar of Lightning Ventures, speaking to Bloomberg, argued that the crypto sell-off is part of a broader liquidity panic as traders rush to cover margin calls. Khullar views this as a temporary sell-off, presenting a potential buying opportunity.

Josh Gilbert, an eToro market analyst, supports Khullar’s perspective, suggesting that the expected Federal Reserve rate cuts could benefit crypto assets. “Crypto assets have sold off, but many investors will see an opportunity. We see Federal Reserve rate cuts, which are now likely to come sharper than expected, as hugely positive for crypto assets,” Gilbert told Coindesk.

Despite the recent volatility, crypto continues to make strides toward mainstream acceptance. Notably, Morgan Stanley will allow its advisors to offer Bitcoin ETFs starting Wednesday. This follows more than half a year after the introduction of the first Bitcoin ETF. The investment bank will enable over 15,000 of its financial advisors to sell BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC. This move is seen as a significant step toward the “mainstreamization” of crypto, given the lengthy regulatory and company processes in major investment banks.

The recent crypto market downturn highlights its volatility and the broader economic concerns affecting all risk assets. While some analysts see the current situation as a temporary sell-off and a buying opportunity, others caution against the speculative nature of crypto. As the market evolves, its role as a mainstream alternative asset continues to grow, marked by increasing institutional acceptance and new investment opportunities.

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