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The Olympics are the 'only silver lining' for Japan's economy right now, analyst says – CNBC

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Japanese former marathon runner Noguchi Mizuki and president of the Tokyo 2020 Organising Committee Toshiaki Endo pose for a picture following the Olympic flame lighting ceremony for the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics on March 12, 2020 in ancient Olympia, Greece.

Milos Bicanski | Getty Images

Japan’s economy will take a hit if the Olympic Games are canceled due to the coronavirus outbreak, an analyst said on Friday amid swirling speculation over whether the massive sporting event will take place as scheduled this summer in Tokyo.

The Japanese economy has already been hit by a consumption tax hike that crimped spending and the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic is likely to affect Japanese exporters this year, said Waqas Adenwala, Asia analyst at The Economist Intelligence Unit.

“The Olympics actually is the only silver lining Japan has right now,” Adenwala told CNBC.

“The Olympics is the only scenario we can expect some incoming of tourist arrivals, some spending there. It wouldn’t have been a big lifesaver, but it would’ve been some sort of support rather than nothing being there,” said Adenwala.

Tokyo has repeatedly reaffirmed its commitment to holding the Olympic Games. Japan’s top government spokesman Yoshihide Suga emphasized on Friday that the country is on track to hold the Tokyo 2020 Olympics, after U.S. President Donald Trump suggested a possible delay, Reuters reported.

“I am aware of President Trump’s comments, but we are working closely with the IOC (International Olympic Committee), the organizing committee, and Tokyo in preparing for the Games as planned,” Suga told reporters, according to Reuters.

Suga was referring to Trump’s comments on Thursday, when he said officials should consider postponing the Olympics for a year due to the coronavirus outbreak. On Wednesday, the World Health Organization declared the outbreak of the disease, formally known as COVID-19, a global pandemic.

Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had a call on Friday but did not discuss delaying the games or holding them with no spectators, Reuters reported citing senior government spokesman Naoki Okada. They also did not talk about travel restrictions between the two countries, he said.

“The prime minister said firmly that he wanted to win the battle with coronavirus and make this summer’s Olympics a success,” Okada said in a media briefing after the call, Reuters reported. “President Trump said he thought highly of the effort.”

Despite the reassurances, the situation is still fluid amid the public health emergency, said Tobias Harris, a Japan analyst at Teneo Intelligence.

“I don’t think anyone really can say with any confidence what the situation is going to be,” Harris told CNBC.

A postponement would also involve commercial issues like broadcast rights and the what this could mean for a busy U.S. sports calendar.

“Obviously, you don’t want Tokyo to lose the the games entirely. They’ve spent a lot of money … (but) it’s not just Japan’s call,” said Harris. “It’s not going to be an easy decision for the various people involved.”

Disclosure: CNBC parent NBCUniversal owns NBC Sports and NBC Olympics. NBC Olympics is the U.S. broadcast rights holder to all Summer and Winter Games through the year 2032.

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Energy stocks help lift S&P/TSX composite, U.S. stock markets also up

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was higher in late-morning trading, helped by strength in energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also moved up.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 34.91 points at 23,736.98.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 178.05 points at 41,800.13. The S&P 500 index was up 28.38 points at 5,661.47, while the Nasdaq composite was up 133.17 points at 17,725.30.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.56 cents US compared with 73.57 cents US on Monday.

The November crude oil contract was up 68 cents at US$69.70 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up three cents at US$2.40 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$7.80 at US$2,601.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.28 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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Canada’s inflation rate hits 2% target, reaches lowest level in more than three years

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OTTAWA – Canada’s inflation rate fell to two per cent last month, finally hitting the Bank of Canada’s target after a tumultuous battle with skyrocketing price growth.

The annual inflation rate fell from 2.5 per cent in July to reach the lowest level since February 2021.

Statistics Canada’s consumer price index report on Tuesday attributed the slowdown in part to lower gasoline prices.

Clothing and footwear prices also decreased on a month-over-month basis, marking the first decline in the month of August since 1971 as retailers offered larger discounts to entice shoppers amid slowing demand.

The Bank of Canada’s preferred core measures of inflation, which strip out volatility in prices, also edged down in August.

The marked slowdown in price growth last month was steeper than the 2.1 per cent annual increase forecasters were expecting ahead of Tuesday’s release and will likely spark speculation of a larger interest rate cut next month from the Bank of Canada.

“Inflation remains unthreatening and the Bank of Canada should now focus on trying to stimulate the economy and halting the upward climb in the unemployment rate,” wrote CIBC senior economist Andrew Grantham.

Benjamin Reitzes, managing director of Canadian rates and macro strategist at BMO, said Tuesday’s figures “tilt the scales” slightly in favour of more aggressive cuts, though he noted the Bank of Canada will have one more inflation reading before its October rate announcement.

“If we get another big downside surprise, calls for a 50 basis-point cut will only grow louder,” wrote Reitzes in a client note.

The central bank began rapidly hiking interest rates in March 2022 in response to runaway inflation, which peaked at a whopping 8.1 per cent that summer.

The central bank increased its key lending rate to five per cent and held it at that level until June 2024, when it delivered its first rate cut in four years.

A combination of recovered global supply chains and high interest rates have helped cool price growth in Canada and around the world.

Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem recently signalled that the central bank is ready to increase the size of its interest rate cuts, if inflation or the economy slow by more than expected.

Its key lending rate currently stands at 4.25 per cent.

CIBC is forecasting the central bank will cut its key rate by two percentage points between now and the middle of next year.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is also expected on Wednesday to deliver its first interest rate cut in four years.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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Federal money and sales taxes help pump up New Brunswick budget surplus

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FREDERICTON – New Brunswick‘s finance minister says the province recorded a surplus of $500.8 million for the fiscal year that ended in March.

Ernie Steeves says the amount — more than 10 times higher than the province’s original $40.3-million budget projection for the 2023-24 fiscal year — was largely the result of a strong economy and population growth.

The report of a big surplus comes as the province prepares for an election campaign, which will officially start on Thursday and end with a vote on Oct. 21.

Steeves says growth of the surplus was fed by revenue from the Harmonized Sales Tax and federal money, especially for health-care funding.

Progressive Conservative Premier Blaine Higgs has promised to reduce the HST by two percentage points to 13 per cent if the party is elected to govern next month.

Meanwhile, the province’s net debt, according to the audited consolidated financial statements, has dropped from $12.3 billion in 2022-23 to $11.8 billion in the most recent fiscal year.

Liberal critic René Legacy says having a stronger balance sheet does not eliminate issues in health care, housing and education.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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