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The one big reason why the Edmonton Oilers haven't won more games this year – Edmonton Journal

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Goaltending has cost the Oilers about three wins this year

There’s one big reason why the Edmonton Oilers haven’t won more games this year, and all the rest is chit chat.

We faithful fans of the team are constantly ablaze over team performance. Debates boil up hourly and long reports come out each day on every decision the coach makes on Oilers forwards and d-men, along with in-depth summaries on the pros and cons of each player.

But when I think about the Oilers record of nine win and eight losses after 17 games, one fact hits me over the head, that it’s goaltending, goaltending, goaltending that has cost the Edmonton Oilers wins this year — and no other factor is close.

Simply put, Edmonton’s goalies have made significantly fewer big saves this year than have the goalies of their opponents.

Opponents are converting on 32.6 of their Grade A chances, while the Oilers are converting on 26.7 per cent of their Grade A chances.

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If I were to put a number of how many wins this has cost the Oilers, I’d say it’s about three wins in 17 games.

The Grade A scoring chances gap

How can I put so much on the Oilers goaltenders? Because in most games the Oilers significantly out chance the opposition, but their won-loss record doesn’t reflect that dominance.

Overall, the Oilers have averaged 13.2 Grade A scoring chances per game but have given up just 10.4 Grade A chances.

That’s a huge positive differential for the Oilers.

That’s a massive gap.

The Oilers have a Grade A Scoring Chances For percentage of 55.9 per cent.

Yet when it comes to scoring goals, Edmonton has scored 3.53 per game but given up 3.41 per game. That’s a Goals For percentage of just 50.9 per cent. Very tight. Very close. Not much of an edge for the Oilers.

Stealing games

Monday’s 6-5 loss to the Winnipeg Jets was the kind of defeat that has been all too common for the Oilers, a game where their goalie(s) were the second best on the ice, even as the Oilers were the more dangerous attacking team.

Starting goalie Mike Smith was beat on four difficult shots, not one of them an easy save to make, but he let in every single one of the difficult shots he faced before he was pulled in the second period. He failed to make those two or three big saves that are often the difference between winning and losing a game.

At the other end, Winnipeg goalie Connor Hellebuyck wasn’t perfect, but he came up with the huge saves, such as him blocking a wicked Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ one-timer off a Leon Draisaitl power play feed late in the second period.

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It was the fourth time an opposition goalie stole a win for his team against the Oilers this year in such a game where Edmonton had significantly more Grade A scoring chances.

Meanwhile, in 17 games this year, Oilers goalies have only stolen one game, Smith last week in Edmonton’s 3-2 win over Ottawa.

To understand this in more detail, let’s dig into the three types of games the Oilers have had this year.

3 close games: 1 win, 2 losses.

In these three games, the Oilers had the same number of scoring chances, or were within one scoring chance, as the opposition team. Edmonton lost to Montreal 5-1 in a game where both teams had 14 Grade A chances, they lost to the Leafs 4-3 when the chances were Oilers 14, Leafs 13, and they beat the Senators 4-2 in a game where each team had seven chances.

3 games where opposition had major edge: 1 win, 2 losses

In each of these three games, the opposition had two or more Grade A chances than the Oilers. The Oilers earned one win and two losses in these contests. In Edmonton’s recent 3-2 road win over the Ottawa Senators last week, Smith’s first game back, he stole a win for his team. Ottawa had 13 Grade A chances that game, the Oilers only nine. The Oilers lost the other two games 6-4 to the Jets and 3-1 to the Habs.

11 games where Oilers had major edge: 7 wins, 4 losses

I would expect the Oilers to win most of these games. And in the 11 games where the Oilers outchanced the opposition by two or more Grade A scoring chances, the Oilers have seven wins and four losses. That’s a great record but it’s about what you’d expect from a team that has a significant edge in Grade A scoring chances. Perhaps the more notable and troubling aspect is that in four games where the Oilers had that significant shooting edge, they still lost.

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Those games were: the first game of the year, a 5-3 loss to Vancouver, where the Oilers outchanced the Canucks 19 to 17; the sixth game, where the Oilers outchanced the Leafs 17 to 10 but lost 4-2; in game thirteen, with the Oilers outchancing the Flames 16 to 14 but losing 6-4; and in the 17th game against Winnipeg on Monday, where Edmonton had 15 Grade A chances to 10 for the Jets, but lost 6 to 5.

In those four games, opposition goalies Braden Holtby, Frederik Andersen, Jacob Markstrom and Connor Hellebuyck arguably stole games. In total, the Oilers had 67 Grade A chances and 14 goals, while the opposing teams had 51 chances and 21 goals.

The good news?

If there’s any good news it’s that Mikko Koskinen was much better last season, and can maybe be expected to return to form with Smith’s return, now that Koskinen isn’t forced to play almost every game.

Smith is also off to a hot start, even with his iffy performance against Winnipeg. Koskinen can get his save percentage to move north of .900, the Oilers should make the playoffs, given the otherwise strong performance of the team.

Recently at the Cult of Hockey

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Champions Trophy host Pakistan says it’s not been told India wants to play cricket games elsewhere

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LAHORE, Pakistan (AP) — A top official of the Pakistan Cricket Board declined Friday to confirm media reports that India has decided against playing any games in host Pakistan during next year’s Champions Trophy.

“My view is if there’s any problems, they (India) should tell us in writing,” PCB chairman Mohsin Naqvi told reporters in Lahore. “I’ll share that with the media as well as with the government as soon as I get such a letter.”

Indian media reported Friday that the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) has communicated its concerns to all the Champions Trophy stakeholders, including the PCB, over the Feb. 19-March 9 tournament and would not play in arch-rival Pakistan.

The Times of India said that “Dubai is a strong candidate to host the fixtures involving the Men in Blue” for the 50-over tournament.

Such a solution would see Pakistan having to travel to a neutral venue to play India in a group match, with another potential meeting later in the tournament if both teams advanced from their group. The final is scheduled for March 9 in Pakistan with the specific venue not yet decided.

“Our stance is clear,” Naqvi said. “They need to give us in writing any objections they may have. Until now, no discussion of the hybrid model has happened, nor are we prepared to accept one.”

Pakistan hosted last year’s Asia Cup but all India games were played in Sri Lanka under a hybrid model for the tournament. Only months later Pakistan did travel to India for the 50-over World Cup.

Political tensions have stopped bilateral cricket between the two nations since 2008 and they have competed in only multi-nation tournaments, including ICC World Cups.

“Cricket should be free of politics,” Naqvi said. “Any sport should not be entangled with politics. Our preparations for the Champions Trophy will continue unabated, and this will be a successful event.”

The PCB has already spent millions of dollars on the upgrade of stadiums in Karachi, Lahore and Rawalpindi which are due to host 15 Champions Trophy games. Naqvi hoped all the three stadiums will be ready over the next two months.

“Almost every country wants the Champions Trophy to be played here (in Pakistan),” Naqvi said. “I don’t think anyone should make this a political matter, and I don’t expect they will. I expect the tournament will be held at the home of the official hosts.”

Eight countries – Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, England, Australia, South Africa, New Zealand and Afghanistan – are due to compete in the tournament, the schedule of which is yet to be announced by the International Cricket Council.

“Normally the ICC announces the schedule of any major tournament 100 days before the event, and I hope they will announce it very soon,” Naqvi said.

___

AP cricket:

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Dabrowski, Routlife into WTA doubles final with win over Melichar-Martinez, Perez

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RIYADH, Saudi Arabia – Ottawa‘s Gabriela Dabrowski and Erin Routliffe of New Zealand are through to the doubles final at the WTA Finals after a 7-6 (7), 6-1 victory over Nicole Melichar-Martinez of the United States and Australia’s Ellen Perez in semifinal action Friday.

Dabrowski and Routliffe won a hard-fought first set against serve when Routliffe’s quick reaction at the net to defend a Perez shot gave the duo set point, causing Perez to throw down her racket in frustration.

The second seeds then cruised through the second set, winning match point on serve when Melichar-Martinez couldn’t handle Routliffe’s shot.

The showdown was a rematch of last year’s semifinal, which Melichar-Martinez and Perez won in a super tiebreak.

Dabrowski and Routliffe will face the winner of a match between Katerina Siniakova and Taylor Townsend, and Hao-Ching Chan and Veronika Kudermetova in the final on Saturday.

Dabrowski is aiming to become the first Canadian to win a WTA Finals title.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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Winger Tajon Buchanan back with Canada after recovering from broken leg

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Inter Milan winger Tajon Buchanan, recovered from a broken leg suffered in training at this summer’s Copa America, is back in Jesse Marsch’s Canada squad for the CONCACAF Nations League quarterfinal against Suriname.

The 25-year-old from Brampton, Ont., underwent surgery July 3 to repair a fractured tibia in Texas.

Canada, ranked 35th in the world, plays No. 136 Suriname on Nov. 15 in Paramaribo. The second leg of the aggregate series is four days later at Toronto’s BMO Field.

There is also a return for veteran winger Junior Hoilett, who last played for Canada in June in a 4-0 loss to the Netherlands in Marsch’s debut at the Canadian helm. The 34-year-old from Brampton, now with Scotland’s Hibernian, has 15 goals in 63 senior appearances for Canada.

Midfielder Ismael Kone, recovered from an ankle injury sustained on club duty with France’s Marseille, also returns. He missed Canada’s last three matches since the fourth-place Copa America loss to Uruguay in July.

But Canada will be without centre back Derek Cornelius, who exited Marseille’s win Sunday over Nantes on a stretcher after suffering an apparent rib injury.

The Canadian men will prepare for Suriname next week at a camp in Fort Lauderdale, Fla.

“We are looking forward to getting the group together again with the mindset that there is a trophy on the line,” Marsch said in a statement. “We want to end 2024 the right way with two excellent performances against a competitive Suriname squad and continue building on our tremendous growth this past summer.”

The quarterfinal winners advance to the Nations League Finals at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif., with the two semifinals scheduled for March 20 and the final and third-place playoff March 23, and qualify for the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup.

Thirteen of the 23 players on the Canadian roster are 25 or younger, with 19-year-old defender Jamie Knight-Lebel, currently playing for England’s Crewe Alexandra on loan from Bristol City, the youngest.

Bayern Munich star Alphonso Davies captains the side with Stephen Eustaquio, Jonathan Osorio, Richie Laryea, Alistair Johnston and Kamal Miller adding veteran support.

Jonathan David, Cyle Larin and Theo Bair are joined in attack by Minnesota United’s Tani Oluwaseyi.

Niko Sigur, a 21-year-old midfielder with Croatia’s Hadjuk Split, continues in the squad after making his debut in the September friendly against Mexico.

Suriname made it to the Nations League quarterfinals by finishing second to Costa Rica in Group A of the Nations League, ahead of No. 104 Guatemala, No. 161 Guyana and unranked Martinique and Guadeloupe.

“A good team,” Osorio said of Suriname. “These games are always tricky and they’re not easy at all … Suriname is a (former) Dutch colony and they’ll have Dutch players playing at high levels.”

“They won’t be someone we overlook at all,” added the Toronto FC captain, who has 81 Canada caps to his credit.

Located on the northeast coast of South America between Guyana and French Guiana, Suriname was granted independence in 1975 by the Netherlands.

Canada has faced Suriname twice before, both in World Cup qualifying play, winning 4-0 in suburban Chicago in June 2021 and 2-1 in Mexico City in October 1977.

The Canadian men, along with Mexico, the United States and Panama, received a bye into the final eight of the CONCACAF Nations League.

Canada, No. 2 in the CONCACAF rankings, drew Suriname as the best-placed runner-up from League A play.

Canada lost to Jamaica in last year’s Nations League quarterfinal, ousted on the away-goals rule after the series ended in a 4-4 draw. The Canadians lost 2-0 to the U.S. in the final of the 2022-23 tournament and finished fifth in 2019-20.

Canada defeated Panama 2-1 last time out, in an Oct. 15 friendly in Toronto.

Goalkeepers Maxime Crepeau and Jonathan Sirois, defenders Joel Waterman, Laryea and Miller and Osorio took part in a pre-camp this week in Toronto for North America-based players.

Canada Roster

Goalkeepers: Maxime Crepeau, Portland Timbers (MLS); Jonathan Sirois, CF Montreal (MLS); Dayne St. Clair, Minnesota United FC (MLS).

Defenders: Moise Bombito, OGC Nice (France); Alphonso Davies, Bayern Munich (Germany); Richie Laryea, Toronto FC (MLS); Alistair Johnston, Celtic (Scotland); Jamie Knight-Lebel. Crewe Alexandra, on loan from Bristol City (England); Kamal Miller, Portland Timbers (MLS); Joel Waterman, CF Montreal (MLS).

Midfielders: Ali Ahmed. Vancouver Whitecaps (MLS); Tajon Buchanan, Inter Milan (Italy); Mathieu Choiniere, Grasshopper Zurich (Switzerland); Stephen Eustaquio, FC Porto (Portugal); Junior Hoilett, Hibernian FC (Scotland); Ismael Kone, Olympique Marseille (France); Jonathan Osorio, Toronto FC (MLS); Jacob Shaffelburg, Nashville SC (MLS); Niko Sigur, Hadjuk Split (Croatia).

Forwards: Theo Bair, AJ Auxerre (France); Jonathan David, LOSC Lille (France); Cyle Larin, RCD Mallorca (Spain); Tani Oluwaseyi, Minnesota United (MLS).

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This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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