Politics
The one thing that matters to stocks more than politics
|
The presidential election is mere weeks away on Nov. 3 and the Supreme Court is also now under a microscope after the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg upset the court’s delicate political balance.
<p class=”canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm” type=”text” content=”All of this has been featured in copious pundit commentary and research notes — especially as the market turmoil that surrounded 2016 proved to be a huge boon for some savvy investors like Carl Icahn, who left a Trump election night celebration to buy stocks and make $1 billion.” data-reactid=”17″>All of this has been featured in copious pundit commentary and research notes — especially as the market turmoil that surrounded 2016 proved to be a huge boon for some savvy investors like Carl Icahn, who left a Trump election night celebration to buy stocks and make $1 billion.
But in a fresh note from Capital Economics, economist Oliver Allen points out the obvious point many forget during election season: the economy is “probably more important than politics.”
<p class=”canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm” type=”text” content=”Politics, Allen writes, is still moving the market. The death of Ginsburg was the “final nail in the coffin” for more fiscal stimulus that millions of Americans need to stay afloat. It also has bearing on what may happen on Election Day, as the Supreme Court may eclipse the pandemic and the economy as key voting issues.” data-reactid=”19″>Politics, Allen writes, is still moving the market. The death of Ginsburg was the “final nail in the coffin” for more fiscal stimulus that millions of Americans need to stay afloat. It also has bearing on what may happen on Election Day, as the Supreme Court may eclipse the pandemic and the economy as key voting issues.
Despite the impact that politics has on the stock market, Allen warns investors not to get ahead of themselves. It’s the economy that matters most, and most importantly, how the long-term coronavirus vaccines and eventual recovery unfold.
Though Allen says to look at the economy more than the election, Capital Economics doesn’t offer more than a vague “the S&P 500 will climb further over the next few years, as major economies eventually get their coronavirus outbreaks under control, and central banks keep monetary policy exceptionally loose,” which seems wise, given how silly 2019 predictions look now.
Many people remember how the disrupted Bush-Gore election in 2000 hurt equity markets, causing them to drop around 8%, but the turbulence cleared up relatively quickly, resulting in no long-term damage.
“Provided any dispute over this year’s election is also eventually resolved, we find it hard to see [the election] having a lasting impact on US equities, even if it could cause a spike in volatility following Election Day,” Allen writes.
The fact that politics is secondary to the economy when it comes to stock prices isn’t a controversial take. Plenty of analysts point to uncertainty as being the chief problem. But the political implications for the stock market are frequently discussed by market strategists.
<p class=”canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm” type=”text” content=”Many financial pundits have said Trump is better for the stock market and economy, citing deregulation and market performance after his election amid dire predictions from some. And Allen notes that “a second term for President Trump would probably be a better outcome for US equities than a win for Joe Biden,” because of corporate taxes.” data-reactid=”36″>Many financial pundits have said Trump is better for the stock market and economy, citing deregulation and market performance after his election amid dire predictions from some. And Allen notes that “a second term for President Trump would probably be a better outcome for US equities than a win for Joe Biden,” because of corporate taxes.
<p class=”canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm” type=”text” content=”At the same time, Trump’s late and weak coronavirus response led, in part, to 200,000 deaths, skyrocketing unemployment, dampened earnings, and a recovery that is still trying to get off the ground. And though some stock prices (mostly tech stocks) are doing well — driving the S&P 500 (^GSPC) back to pre-coronavirus levels after a huge plunge — many companies are still in tough situations.” data-reactid=”37″>At the same time, Trump’s late and weak coronavirus response led, in part, to 200,000 deaths, skyrocketing unemployment, dampened earnings, and a recovery that is still trying to get off the ground. And though some stock prices (mostly tech stocks) are doing well — driving the S&P 500 (^GSPC) back to pre-coronavirus levels after a huge plunge — many companies are still in tough situations.
Source:- Yahoo Canada Finance
Politics
CAQ whip set to jump into federal politics as candidate for Poilievre's Conservatives – CBC.ca
Federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has dipped into the Quebec government ranks to add a new candidate to his team.
Éric Lefebvre, the Coalition Avenir Québec government whip, is leaving the province’s ruling party and will sit as an Independent before joining the Tories ahead of the next federal election.
Poilievre wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter, that he was proud to have Lefebvre join the Conservative team.
On Tuesday night, Lefebvre announced he was leaving the CAQ caucus but would continue to represent the riding of Arthabaska, northeast of Montreal, as an Independent.
Quebec Premier François Legault wrote on X that he asked Lefebvre to withdraw from caucus.
Lefebvre, who was unsuccessful in a 2008 run for the federal Conservatives, first won the Arthabaska riding in a 2016 byelection and was re-elected in 2018 and 2022.
The next federal election must be held by October 2025.
Politics
Viewer asks about Trump followers' assertion that trial is political. CNN anchor responds – CNN
Viewer asks about Trump followers’ assertion that trial is political. CNN anchor responds
New York Times reporter and CNN senior political analyst Maggie Haberman joins CNN’s Laura Coates to answer questions from viewers about the hush money trial of former President Donald Trump.
Politics
Trump faces political risks as trial begins – NBC News
IE 11 is not supported. For an optimal experience visit our site on another browser.
-
More than 20 tornadoes reported as tens of millions face severe weather threat
00:57
-
Shoe cobbler becomes unlikely TikTok star
01:48
-
First jurors selected to serve in Trump hush money trial
03:07
-
Israel’s military vows response to Iranian attack
01:31
-
DOJ reportedly set to sue Live Nation in antitrust challenge
00:52
-
Boeing whistleblower says 787 Dreamliner has production flaw
03:25
-
USC cancels commencement speech by class valedictorian
01:36
-
House delivers articles of impeachment against Mayorkas to Senate
01:49
-
Boeing engineer says worldwide 787 fleet ‘needs attention’
00:20
-
Two bodies found in Oklahoma are believed to be missing Kansas women
01:42
-
Video shows men damaging ancient rocks in national park
01:46
-
White House tries to prevent a wider war in the Mideast
02:01
-
Israel’s military vows military response after Iran attack
02:59
-
Caitlin Clark talks about her WNBA dream
01:52
-
Now Playing
Trump faces political risks as trial begins
00:53
-
UP NEXT
Jury selection begins in Trump’s hush money trial
02:54
-
Arrests made in connection to disappearance of two Kansas moms
01:30
-
President Biden urges restraint after Iran’s attack on Israel
03:19
-
UP NEXT
More than 20 tornadoes reported as tens of millions face severe weather threat
00:57
-
Shoe cobbler becomes unlikely TikTok star
01:48
-
First jurors selected to serve in Trump hush money trial
03:07
-
Israel’s military vows response to Iranian attack
01:31
-
DOJ reportedly set to sue Live Nation in antitrust challenge
00:52
-
Boeing whistleblower says 787 Dreamliner has production flaw
03:25
-
Tech22 hours ago
iPhone 15 Pro Desperado Mafia model launched at over ₹6.5 lakh- All details about this luxury iPhone from Caviar – HT Tech
-
Sports22 hours ago
Lululemon unveils Canada's official Olympic kit for the Paris games – National Post
-
News20 hours ago
Toronto airport gold heist: Police announce nine arrests – CP24
-
Investment16 hours ago
Saudi Arabia Highlights Investment Initiatives in Tourism at International Hospitality Investment Forum
-
News17 hours ago
Loblaws Canada groceries: Shoppers slam store for green onions with roots chopped off — 'I wouldn't buy those' – Yahoo News Canada
-
Tech20 hours ago
Venerable Video App Plex Emerges As FAST Favorite – Forbes
-
Art16 hours ago
Squatters at Gordon Ramsay's Pub Have 'Left the Building' After Turning It Into an Art Café – PEOPLE
-
Business16 hours ago
Rupture on TC Energy's NGTL gas pipeline sparks wildfire in Alberta – The Globe and Mail