Politics

The personalisation of politics: Why political leaders now lie at the heart of European democracy – EUROPP – European Politics and Policy

Published

4 years ago

January 19, 2021

It is often argued that European politics is increasingly ‘personal’, with the popularity of party leaders exerting a growing impact on the outcome of elections. Drawing on a new study, Diego Garzia, Frederico Ferreira da Silva and Andrea De Angelis assess how these dynamics have developed in western Europe since the 1960s. Their findings suggest that the personalisation of politics has taken place hand-in-hand with decreasing importance for partisanship in structuring voter choice.

Political leaders are central actors in contemporary politics. Apart from steering their respective parties, they shape political communication, and strongly influence public opinion. Modern campaigning has increasingly come to resemble a beauty contest among candidates, as the media focus has shifted from policy platforms to candidates’ personalities and private lives. Many recent studies have shown that one of the key drivers of party choice in democratic elections is voter assessments of the political leaders running for election. The key importance of individual candidates for voting behaviour has led some authors to speak of a personalisation of politics.

But have leaders become more important in voters’ minds, or have they always been this relevant? Prominent party leaders are certainly not a product of the 21^st century. Studies on the personalisation of politics have long struggled to determine whether the personalisation of voting behaviour corresponds to a long-term process or if leaders are as important today as they have ever been. In a new study, we provide new insights into this debate in an attempt to reconstruct its long-term dynamics from a comparative perspective.

One of the main obstacles faced by previous studies involves data availability. In an age where data is cheap and abundant (see for instance the recent contribution by Russ Dalton), data stemming from high-quality electoral surveys is often not integrated, hindering comparative and longitudinal efforts. In particular, no comparative dataset has been available to researchers wishing to track the long-term relationship between party leader evaluations and voting decisions across the extended time span covered by national election study projects.

To fill this void, we dug into more than a hundred original surveys dating back to the 1960s to assemble the West European Voter (WEV) dataset. The unique feature of this dataset is that it provides a long-term perspective on the drivers of electoral decision-making, harmonising a total of 129 datasets collected in 14 West European parliamentary democracies over the period 1961-2018. The focus on parliamentary democracies is motivated by the attempt to understand if political leaders can also guide voters’ decisions outside of presidential systems, where their centrality is granted by the institutional setting.

The analysis of this original data revealed elements regarding the trajectory of voting behaviour that shed new light on the process of personalisation and its relationship with partisan dealignment and disintermediation. Figure 1 below shows the percentages of voters aligning their vote with the highest rated leader, and with the party they identify with.

Figure 1: Percentage of voters who back the party of their preferred political leader and the party they feel closest to in West European elections

Note: For more information, see the authors’ accompanying paper in West European Politics.

We find that about 80 percent of individuals report voting for the party of their preferred leader – this is the case in the 1960s and in every other decade until the 2010s. Should we then conclude that contemporary voters are similar to the voters of the 1960s? A second finding of our research suggests that this is not the case. In particular, party attachments have lost their importance for guiding voting decisions. While over 70 percent of the voters supported the party they felt “closest to” in every election held in the 1960s, this share has fallen to below 40 percent in the last decade. This evidence supports the so-called “dealignment hypothesis,” suggesting that voters are increasingly self-reliant and detached from party structures and communities. The fading-away of partisanship has created room for leaders to emerge as the key determinants of vote choice in recent decades.

Furthermore, evidence from an analysis of panel data from selected countries shows that once individuals de-align, they start ascribing greater importance to leader assessments in their voting decisions. In sum, our findings suggest that the personalisation of voting behaviour – translated into increasing leader effects on vote choice – has taken place hand-in-hand with the decreasing importance of partisanship in structuring vote choice.

This finding offers a long-term frame of reference to some of the most visible trends in contemporary party politics and public opinion. First, the successful campaigns of strong political leaders, like Donald Trump or Matteo Renzi, that take control of established parties, or even the launching of brand new personalistic parties by political entrepreneurs like Silvio Berlusconi or Andrej Babiš. Second, the growing volatility of elections, with swift changes in electoral strength and a greater chance of success for new challenger parties. Third, the centrality that media grant to established and new political leaders to expand their audience, and the growing reliance of political leaders on personal social media accounts to connect with their supporters.

Of course, some key aspects of this transition towards an electoral democracy centred around political leaders are yet to be addressed. On the one hand, it is unclear what role social media plays in the process. By providing the tools for direct and personalistic campaigning, social media may accelerate the personalisation dynamic marking the void surrounding traditional political party organisations. Furthermore, campaigning trends also register high levels of political resentment across party lines, and it is unclear whether greater attachment to party leaders is propulsive or the reflection of this more negative style of campaigning.

In conclusion, our research depicts a grim prospect for the central actor of representative democracy: the political party. Our findings very much echo the spectre of a “partyless democracy,” described by Peter Mair some two decades ago with reference to the New Labour government of Tony Blair.

For more information, see the authors’ accompanying paper in West European Politics

Note: This article gives the views of the authors, not the position of EUROPP – European Politics and Policy or the London School of Economics. Featured image credit: Andrew Parsons / No 10 Downing Street (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)

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Politics

Beyoncé, whose ‘Freedom’ is Harris’ campaign anthem, is expected at Democrat’s Texas rally on Friday

Published

11 hours ago

October 24, 2024

Anne Joseph

PHILADELPHIA (AP) — Beyoncé is expected to appear Friday in her hometown of Houston at a rally for Vice President Kamala Harris, according to three people familiar with the matter.

Harris’ presidential campaign has taken on Beyonce’s 2016 track “Freedom” as its anthem, and the singer’s planned appearance brings a high-level of star power to what has become a key theme of the Democratic nominee’s bid: freedom.

Harris will head to the reliably Republican state just 10 days before Election Day in an effort to refocus her campaign against former President Donald Trump on reproductive care, which Democrats see as a make-or-break issue this year.

The three people were not authorized to publicly discuss the matter and spoke on condition of anonymity. The Harris campaign did not immediately comment.

Beyoncé‘s appearance was expected to draw even more attention to the event — and to Harris’ closing message.

Harris’ Houston trip is set to feature women who have been affected by Texas’ restrictive abortion laws, which took effect after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022. She has campaigned in other states with restrictive abortion laws, including Georgia, among the seven most closely contested states.

Harris has centered her campaign around the idea that Trump is a threat to American freedoms, from reproductive and LGBTQ rights to the freedom to be safe from gun violence.

Beyonce gave Harris permission early in her campaign to use “Freedom,” a soulful track from her 2016 landmark album “Lemonade,” in her debut ad. Harris has used its thumping chorus as a walk-out song at rallies ever since.

Beyoncé’s alignment with Harris isn’t the first time that the Grammy winner has aligned with a Democratic politician. Barack Obama and his wife, Michelle, danced as Beyoncé performed at a presidential inaugural ball in 2009.

In 2013, she sang the national anthem at Obama’s second inauguration. Three years later, she and her husband Jay-Z performed at a pre-election concert for Democrat Hillary Clinton in Cleveland.

“Look how far we’ve come from having no voice to being on the brink of history — again,” Beyoncé said at the time. “But we have to vote.”

A January poll by Ipsos for the anti-polarization nonprofit With Honor found that 64% of Democrats had a favorable view of Beyonce compared with just 32% of Republicans. Overall, Americans were more likely to have a favorable opinion than an unfavorable one, 48% to 33%.

Speculation over whether the superstar would appear at this summer’s Democratic National Convention in Chicago reached a fever pitch on the gathering’s final night, with online rumors swirling after celebrity news site TMZ posted a story that said: “Beyoncé is in Chicago, and getting ready to pop out for Kamala Harris on the final night of the Democratic convention.” The site attributed it to “multiple sources in the know,” none of them named.

About an hour after Harris ended her speech, TMZ updated its story to say, “To quote the great Beyoncé: We gotta lay our cards down, down, down … we got this one wrong.” In the end, Harris took the stage to star’s song, but that was its only appearance.

Last year, Harris and her husband, Doug Emhoff, attended Beyoncé’s Renaissance World Tour in Maryland after getting tickets from Beyonce herself. “Thanks for a fun date night, @Beyonce,” Harris wrote on Instagram.

___

Long and Kinnard reported from Washington. Associated Press writer Linley Sanders in Washington contributed to this report. Kinnard can be reached at

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Politics

Saskatchewan NDP promises to work with Ottawa on homeless supports if elected

Published

11 hours ago

October 24, 2024

Anne Joseph

PRINCE ALBERT, Sask. – Saskatchewan NDP Leader Carla Beck says her party would collaborate with the federal government to work out the best deal for solving homelessness if elected on Monday.

Federal Housing Minister Sean Fraser has said he sent a letter last month to provinces and territories asking them to work with Ottawa to find shelter for those experiencing homelessness.

The minister has said the government plans to directly hand out funding to Regina and Saskatoon since the province hadn’t responded to the offer before entering an election period.

Beck says it’s important to have a provincial leader who would sit down with federal officials to work out proper deals for Saskatchewan residents.

She says Saskatchewan should be working with municipalities and the federal government to ensure they can provide services for homeless populations.

Beck has said an NDP government would introduce rent caps, make vacant provincial housing units available to families and increase the supply of rental units.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Politics

NDP plan motion to push back against anti-abortion ‘creep’ from Conservatives

Published

11 hours ago

October 24, 2024

Anne Joseph

OTTAWA – The NDP is taking aim at the Conservatives on abortion by putting forward a motion to push back against what it calls a “creep” of legislation, petitions and threats aimed at reducing access to abortion.

Leader Jagmeet Singh says his party will use its next opposition day to force the House of Commons to debate and vote on a motion calling for urgent action to improve abortion access.

Singh claimed that anti-choice Conservative MPs are “often calling the shots” in the Official Opposition, and that leader Pierre Poilievre has “let his MPs bring in anti-choice laws, anti-choice motions.”

“There is a real threat from the Conservatives,” he said, speaking to the media at a news conference in Montreal.

A spokesperson for Poilievre did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The NDP in its press release cited several examples of what it called “anti-choice” moves from the Tories, including a petition presented earlier this year by a Conservative MP that claimed more than 98 per cent of abortions “are for reasons of social or personal convenience.”

Poilievre said at the time he disagreed with the petition.

He has previously called himself “pro-choice” and said he would not pass laws that restrict reproductive choices if he is elected.

“When I am prime minister, no laws or rules will be passed that restrict women’s reproductive choices. Period,” Poilievre said in a statement in June addressing the petition.

Conservative MP Cathy Wagantall introduced a private member’s bill last year to encourage judges to consider a victim’s pregnancy as an aggravating factor in sentencing.

The Abortion Rights Coalition of Canada urged MPs to vote against the bill on the grounds that it promoted fetal rights, even though the bill’s text didn’t mention fetal rights.

Liberal ministers called the bill an effort to reopen the abortion debate in Canada.

Wagantall, who has been clear that she opposes abortion, said Bill C-311 had nothing to do with abortion.

At the time, a spokesperson for Poilievre said he planned to vote in favour of the bill.

Speaking in Montreal on Thursday, Singh also called out the governing Liberals, saying they haven’t done enough to improve abortion access in Canada.

“This vote is very important, but it’s also important that the vote on this motion is about not just the Conservative threat, but the lack of action of the Liberals,” said Singh, adding that access to abortion in Canada is “getting worse, not better.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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