We have been warned — over and over again lately — that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is an inflection point in history.
And while the soaring political rhetoric may have sounded good over the last few years, it’s very likely that this week — after a cascade of events in Kyiv, Moscow, Washington and, yes, even Ottawa — we truly arrived at that turning point.
We just might not like where it’s going.
Following the British victory in the war-scorched wasteland of El-Alamein in western Egypt in early November 1942 (and the concurrent U.S.-led invasion of North Africa), Winston Churchill stood before an audience at London’s Mansion House for the Lord Mayor’s Day Luncheon.
It was a watershed moment in a war that, up to that point, had been going very badly for western democracies and the Soviet Union — something we tend to forget in the haze of Second World War nostalgia and self-congratulation.
Churchill, the wartime leader to whom Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is often compared, recognized El-Alamein as an inflection point.
“Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning,” he told his audience.
There may be no better way of describing where we find ourselves today.
As it turned out, Churchill was right. There were still a number of major inflection points to follow — the Battle of Stalingrad and D-Day among them. But the tide had definitely turned.
It’s hard to walk away from the events of this week without the same vague sense that something critical has changed.
There’s been a lot to take stock of: Zelenskyy firing his top military commander, the spectacular crash of the bundled U.S. military aid package, the solidifying gridlock in the U.S. Congress, public opinion polling in Canada that shows a growing number of Conservatives believe Ukraine is getting too much aid — and finally the propaganda tour de force of former Fox News host Tucker Carlson’s interview with a rambling Russian President Vladimir Putin.
U.S. television host Tucker Carlson interviewed Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, Russia on Feb. 6, 2024. (Gavriil Grigorov/Sputnik/Kremlin/Reuters)
“We’re at an inflection point,” said Dominique Arel, chair of Ukrainian studies at the University of Ottawa. “But I would say the inflection is taking place in [the U.S.] Congress.”
The replacement of long-serving Ukrainian top commander Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi with the older, Soviet-trained Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi is significant, said Arel, but it pales in comparison with the political machinations in Washington. He said “it’s hard to see a way out” of the political stalemate in Washington as the U.S. leaves the impression it’s on the verge of abandoning Ukraine.
The unblocking of 50 billion euros ($54 billion US) in European Union aid was a bright spot — one which Arel said signals that even though we’re at a turning point, it doesn’t mean we’re headed toward catastrophe in the war in Ukraine.
“We’re headed toward months … a whole year of uncertainty, and greater, greater suffering,” he said.
“Not talking about the likelihood of a complete collapse of the front. No, I don’t think so. But the stepped-up bombing of cities is a concern.”
In this photo provided by the Ukrainian Presidential Press Office, former Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces Valerii Zaluzhnyi, right, and newly appointed Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi hug each other during an awarding ceremony in Kyiv, Ukraine on Friday, Feb. 9, 2024. (Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP)
In a statement Friday, Syrski indicated he intends to take a tougher approach to the war and that his immediate goals are to improve the troop rotation at the front lines and harness the power of new technology.
Oleksandr Musiienko, the head of the Center for Military and Legal Studies in Kyiv, said the replacement of Zaluzhnyi won’t lead to a loss of confidence in the Zelenskyy government within the army.
“Someone could be disappointed about this decision, but I think more soldiers are waiting for reforms in the army,” Musiienko said. “In general, I think everything will be okay.”
Musiienko said he and others are watching to see who gets appointed to the new top general’s team, because that will shape the direction of the war more than the political debate in Ukraine — where polling shows Zaluzhnyi has become a more popular and trusted figure than the president.
Canadian support for Ukraine begins to slide
In Canada, meanwhile, the Angus Reid Institute released a survey this week that suggested Canadians’ support for aiding Ukraine’s war effort is weakening — especially among Conservatives.
Nearly a quarter of Canadians believe Canada is offering “too much support” to Ukraine in its fight against Russia, up from 13 per cent who were asked the same question in May 2022.
Among Canadians who voted for the Conservative Party in the last election, the percentage who say Canada is doing too much to assist Ukraine has more than doubled — from 19 per cent in May 2022 to 43 per cent now.
The Angus Reid findings mirror what’s happening in U.S. politics. Recent Pew Center research found 48 per cent of Republican voters believe their country is giving “too much” aid to Ukraine.
WATCH: MPs vote to pass updated trade deal with Ukraine
House of Commons votes to pass the updated Canada-Ukraine free trade deal
4 days ago
Duration 1:32:57
Feb. 6, 2024 – The updated Canada-Ukraine free trade deal passed with support from the Liberals, NDP and Bloc Québécois. Conservative MPs voted against the bill. Power & Politics speaks to Ontario Liberal MP Francesco Sorbara and NDP foreign affairs critic Heather McPherson. Plus, we bring you reaction from the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce.
Arel said there’s still a very important distinction to be made between Canadian and American political opinion. While there’s a significant Ukrainian diaspora population in the United States, it doesn’t have the same political clout as the Ukrainian community in Canada.
Between half a dozen and a dozen ridings in Canada — mostly in Ontario and Western Canada — are competitive and have Ukrainian-Canadian constituencies that can make their political weight felt, Arel said.
“So, one would think [in a close election] that’s a check to a Conservative Party of Canada going the way of the Republican Party on this geopolitical question,” he said.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has faced some pointed questions about Conservatives’ support for Ukraine’s war effort. (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press)
That might explain what The Globe and Mail referred to in an opinion piece this week as Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s “evasive bombast” when he was asked whether he agreed that Canada is providing too much aid to Ukraine.
It’s not in Poilievre’s interest to answer the question, especially given (as the Globe also noted) how Carlson, a self-professed admirer of Russia, has a devoted following among some Conservatives in Canada.
There’s been lots of commentary on and dissection of Carlson’s interview with Putin already. For Arel and other experts, however, one moment in particular stood out in the Russian president’s long-winded history lesson.
“First of all,” said Arel, “it wasn’t an interview because Putin can’t be contradicted.” But what was really interesting for him, he said, was how Putin “came dangerously close to saying that Germany had the right — or at least cause — in invading Poland in 1939.”
The remark, he said, left him thinking, “Wow, okay.”
‘One step beyond the Soviets’
Soviet history and propaganda was always very selective about its Nazi narratives. It often forgot, for example, that prior to the German invasion of 1941, Moscow and Berlin were allies who carved up an independent Poland.
“So [Putin] pretty much said that yesterday and that’s going one step — one step — beyond the Soviets,” Arel said. “Soviet propaganda would never go to that level.”
Another expert — who perhaps also sensed the inflection point and was reacting to the shifting political discourse — released a report on Friday that underlined in the starkest of terms what a Russian victory in Ukraine would mean.
“The war in Ukraine is primarily a war for control of people, not land,” wrote Karolina Hird of the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War.
A firefighter carries a man from a damaged residential building after a Russian missile strike, in Kyiv, Ukraine on Tuesday, Jan. 2, 2024. (Alex Babenko/AP)
“Russian President Vladimir Putin has invaded Ukraine twice, not mainly because he desires Ukraine’s land, but rather because he seeks to control its people. Putin’s project, explicitly articulated in the 2021 article he published justifying the 2022 full-scale invasion, is the destruction of Ukraine’s distinctive political, social, linguistic and religious identity.”
In her report, The Kremlin’s Occupation Playbook, Hird said that Putin “seeks to make real his false ideological conviction that Ukrainians are simply confused Russians with an invented identity, language and history that a small, Western-backed minority is seeking to impose on the majority of inhabitants.”
Hird pointed down the road to an ending with a “hypothetical” Russian victory and offered a warning:
“The Russian war against Ukraine was always a war to eliminate Ukrainian nationhood and thus cannot end until Kyiv itself is made over into a Russian city and all Ukraine a Russian province.”
HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.
Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.
A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”
Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.
“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.
In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”
“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”
Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.
Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.
Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.
“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.
“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.
“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”
Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.
“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”
NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”
“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.
Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.
She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.
Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.
Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.
The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.
Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.
“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.
Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.
“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”
The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.
In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.
“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”
In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.
“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”
Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.
Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.
“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”
In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.
In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.
“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”
Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.
“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”
The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.
“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.
Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.
“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
