The politics of housing now defines both Trudeau and Poilievre

The issue of housing affordability has become a political crucible — a debate through which Justin Trudeau and Pierre Poilievre are defining themselves and each other.

There are, despite appearances, a few crucial points on which the prime minister and the leader of the Official Opposition agree. They both agree, for instance, that the cost of housing is a pressing problem that demands action — a level of agreement that does not exist for climate change.

They both agree that at least part of the solution involves other levels of government. They both agree that federal funding can play a meaningful role in creating change.

And they both agree the other has nothing useful to offer.

What Canadians need are “real solutions, not just slogans and buzzwords,” Trudeau said Wednesday, apparently in reference to the Conservative leader. A few hours later, Poilievre said Canadians were getting only “more speeches, more photo ops, more puff pieces.”

Poilievre was, coincidentally, speaking at his own photo op in that moment — he had summoned reporters to the foyer of the House of Commons, where he stood before the glass doors that lead to the chamber. Still eschewing the glasses he wore until recently, but now back to wearing a collared shirt and tie, Poilievre lamented the “housing hell” he accuses the federal government of creating and called on the prime minister to recall the House so that MPs could “solve” the crisis with “common sense.”

The House is due to reconvene on September 18. If three extra weeks is enough time to solve the issue of housing affordability in Canada, it’s a wonder no one has done it yet. But Poilievre’s gambit has the benefit of conveying urgency — and it also makes for a tidy one-liner.

“Open up the House so Canadians can get a home,” Poilievre declared as he departed.

Poilievre’s conservative solutions

Poilievre suggested the House’s time would be used to focus on three things: balancing the budget to reduce inflation, eliminating the “bureaucracy” that makes it harder to build housing and selling federal property to make more land available for development.

To varying degrees, each of these is easier said than done.

Poilievre says he would have the federal government unload 6,000 buildings. The federal government already has a program to sell surplus properties for affordable housing — the Federal Lands Initiative — which was launched in 2019 with the stated goal of making available “4,000 suitable properties.” At least some buildings have been put up for sale, but a parliamentary committee report last year suggested the program could be improved.

Based on the projections tabled in the spring, balancing the federal budget in the current fiscal year would require cutting spending by $40 billion. The projected deficit for next year is only slightly smaller, at $35 billion. If the Conservatives have an itemized list of everything they would cut to return the budget to balance, that would at least be interesting to see, regardless of when the House reconvenes.

Given how many countries are dealing with elevated inflation, it’s also fair to ask how much balancing the federal budget would actually reduce inflation in Canada.

But beyond the details, there is a neat consistency to Poilievre’s prescriptions. The Conservative leader is proudly ideological in his conservatism and he is proposing a plan that epitomizes the textbook beliefs of a conservative: reduce the footprint of government, shrink the public sector, minimize regulation.

In Canadians’ concerns about housing and the cost of living, Poilievre obviously sees an opportunity to pursue his ideological aims — and if he is successful politically, this debate no doubt would act as a gateway to a much more conservative federal government than Canada has had over the last eight years.

Trudeau’s fondness for experts, data

Trudeau isn’t much of an ideologue. But he does have his own tendencies and preferences.

Emerging from two days of cabinet meetings in Charlottetown, Trudeau reported that he and his ministers had “heard from experts and directly from Canadians who are facing these problems.” He also said they had “studied historical trends and data from Statistics Canada’s long-form census which are helping us understand these issues more clearly.”

That reference to the long-form census — the one the previous Conservative government killed in 2010 and the Liberals restored on their first day in office in 2015 — surely was not incidental.

Two of the experts who spoke to cabinet came with a ten-point plan to boost the availability of rental properties. Trudeau wasn’t quite ready to commit to copy-and-pasting that plan into the government’s fall economic statement. But he is at least no longer trying to parse constitutional responsibility for housing.

Poilievre, whose affinity for political combat is almost as strong as his fondness for conservative principles, has vowed that he would withhold federal infrastructure funds from municipalities that don’t build as much housing as he thinks they should.

“I am paying for performance and results,” Poilievre told an audience in P.E.I. last week.

Trudeau, who came to office promising a more collaborative approach to governing and who is trying to encourage municipalities with a “housing accelerator” fund, said there’s an obvious need for more cooperation.

“I look forward to working alongside not just premiers and mayors but also the for-profit and not-for-profit sector,” he said.

With his own sleeves rolled up, Trudeau said “the way we get through this is to roll up our sleeves and [get] the work done collaboratively across all the different sectors and orders of governments that have different responsibilities.”

Trudeau also had some thoughts about what Canadians don’t need. “In this time, Canadians need a government that believes in them and invests in their future, not one that thinks damaging cuts are the solution to everything,” he said.

Empathy and action

While he wasn’t ready to offer a suite of new measures, Trudeau said he understood what Canadians are experiencing and feeling — and paid special attention to the plight of millennials. Empathy has never been Trudeau’s problem and even now it remains a strength. An Abacus poll conducted earlier this summer found that Trudeau had a 20-point advantage over Poilievre when Canadians were asked which leader was the most compassionate.

Trudeau also held a slim, one-point lead on the question of which leader “best understands you.” But Poilievre is obviously keen to make gains on those fronts, both with his emphasis on feeling the pain of the people he meets at rallies and with a national ad campaign that leans heavily on the image of a family man.

For Trudeau, the larger source of concern is that Poilievre came out slightly ahead when Canadians were asked which leader had the “clearest vision” (Poilievre led 36 per cent to 34 per cent) and “the best ideas” (36 per cent to 32 per cent). Poilievre also won on the question which leader was the “strongest” (37 per cent to 33 per cent).

There might be a dozen issues that shape the answers to those questions over the next two years. But right now, none seem to loom larger than housing and affordability. And if Trudeau wants to win re-election, his empathy obviously needs to be backed up by action.

When Trudeau talks about the need for “real solutions” over “buzzwords,” he’s both needling Poilievre and turning around an attack that has often been launched in his direction — and one he has to answer again.

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