The Recession Was Over Last Year, But The Economy Has Not Fully Recovered - Forbes | Canada News Media
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The Recession Was Over Last Year, But The Economy Has Not Fully Recovered – Forbes

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The recession ended in April 2020, according to a new statement by the official judge of business cycles. Despite the latest pronouncement, nobody feels like we’ve been in good shape the past year. The recession label is given by a committee of the non-profit National Bureau for Economic Research. The purpose is to help researchers have a common and accepted set of business cycle dates. The committee does not make forecasts nor recommend policy. It just determines whether the economic worm has turned.

The committee wrote, “In determining that a trough occurred in April 2020, the committee did not conclude that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity.” If someone falls down a ten-foot hole, an economist would say the person is in recession. When the unlucky person gets up and takes one step upward, the economist says the person is out of recession. Everyone else sees the person is nine feet down a ten-foot hole.

Looking a little into the future is part of the committee’s work. After the economy has turned up, the committee asks itself: If the economy starts to turn down tomorrow, will we want to call that part of the earlier recession or a brand-new recession? That question delays the answer to whether the recession is over. Because of the time lag, committee pronouncements are not much use in assessing current conditions. And the committee emphasizes their research-oriented approach.

Although the committee can look at a wide variety of economic indicators, they focus on four measures. These range from 70% recovered to more than fully recovered, as of this writing.

Real personal income excluding transfer payments is a broad measure that counts wages and salaries, other employee benefits, as well as income from rents, dividends and interest. The “real” label means that the measure is adjusted for inflation. This gauge dropped sharply in March and April of 2020 and has now more than recovered that loss. If transfer payments from the government are added, income is well above pre-pandemic levels, but this measure doesn’t count the federal stimulus checks that households received.

Industrial production measures the output of manufacturing, utilities and mining, which includes oil and gas production. It has recovered 90% of its loss so far. Within this category, utilities have lagged (reflecting weak industrial demand), manufacturing is almost back to pre-pandemic production, but mining is way down, due to low petroleum production.

Employment is the weakest of the four main measures, having recovered just 70% of its loss. The high unemployment comes with many unfilled job openings, which is quite a puzzle. Possible explanations include a mismatch between the unemployed and the skills needed for open positions; the effect of past stimulus payments and bonus unemployment insurance benefits.

The fourth measure is real business sales of manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers. Again, the label “real” means inflation-adjusted. This tracks the goods portion of the economy, which is less important than it used to be. Real business sales is running nine percent above its pre-pandemic high, but that’s not surprising. Social distancing and lockdowns led to reduced spending on services, such as restaurant meals, travel and hotels, so consumers had more to spend on food on home remodeling and redecorating.

Looking at the data, I suspect that the committee pondered the possibility of a second economic downturn triggered by Covid-19 via lockdowns or social distancing. If that had occured, they might well have considered the whole period as a single recession. Waiting to see if an other downturn occurred, and what its cause would be, justified their long delay in declaring the recession over.

The committee’s decision tells us little about the future. The shortest expansion on record, which is the period between recessions, was just 12 months. It’s been more that long since the official end of the last recession, so anything can happen from here forward.

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Construction wraps on indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs in Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.

Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.

The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.

“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.

“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”

Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.

The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.

The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.

Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.

More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.

Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.

“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.

Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.

“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.

Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.

Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.

Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”

“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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N.B. election: Parties’ answers on treaty rights, taxes, Indigenous participation

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FREDERICTON – The six chiefs of the Wolastoqey Nation in New Brunswick distributed a survey on Indigenous issues to political parties ahead of the provincial election, which is scheduled to kick off Thursday. Here are some of the answers from the Progressive Conservative, Liberal and Green parties.

Q: How does your party plan to demonstrate a renewed commitment to recognizing our joint treaty responsibilities and acknowledging that the lands and waters of this territory remain unceded?

Progressive Conservative: The party respectfully disagrees with the assertion that land title has been unceded. This is a legal question that has not been determined by the courts.

Liberal: When we form government, the first conversations the premier-designate will have is with First Nations leaders. We will publicly and explicitly acknowledge your treaty rights, and our joint responsibility as treaty people.

Green: The Green Party acknowledges that New Brunswick is situated on the unceded and unsurrendered territories of the Wolastoqiyik, Mi’kmaq and Peskotomuhkati peoples, covered by the Treaties of Peace and Friendship. Our party is committed to establishing true nation-to-nation relationships with First Nations, grounded in mutual respect and co-operation as the treaties intended.

Q: How does your party propose to approach the issue of provincial tax agreements with First Nations?

Progressive Conservative: The government of New Brunswick operates in a balanced and fair manner with all organizations, institutions and local governments that represent the citizens of this province, including First Nations. Therefore, we cannot offer tax agreements that do not demonstrate a benefit to all citizens.

Liberal: Recent discussions with First Nations chiefs shed light on the gaps that existed in the previous provincial tax agreements with First Nations. Our party is committed to negotiating and establishing new tax agreements with First Nations that address the local needs and priorities and ensure all parties have a fair deal.

Green: The Green Party is committed to fostering a respectful relationship with First Nations in New Brunswick and strongly opposes Premier Blaine Higgs’s decision to end tax-sharing agreements. We believe reinstating these agreements is crucial for supporting the economic development and job creation in First Nation communities.

Q: How will your party ensure more meaningful participation of Indigenous communities in provincial land use and resource management decision-making?

Progressive Conservative: The government of New Brunswick has invested significant resources in developing a robust duty to consult and engagement process. We are interested in fully involving First Nations in the development of natural resources, including natural gas development. We believe that the development of natural gas is better for the environment — because it allows for the shutdown of coal-fired power plants all over the globe — and it allows for a meaningful step along the path to reconciliation.

Liberal: Our party is focused on building strong relations with First Nations and their representatives based on mutual respect and a nation-to-nation relationship, with a shared understanding of treaty obligations and a recognition of your rights. This includes having First Nations at the table and engaged on all files, including land-use and resource management.

Green: We will develop a new Crown lands management framework with First Nations, focusing on shared management that respects the Peace and Friendship Treaties. We will enhance consultation by developing parameters for meaningful consultation with First Nations that will include a dispute resolution mechanism, so the courts become the last resort, not the default in the face of disagreements.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Canadian Coast Guard crew member lost at sea off Newfoundland

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ST. JOHN’S, N.L. – A crew member of a Canadian Coast Guard ship has been lost at sea off southern Newfoundland.

The agency said in a release Wednesday that an extensive search and rescue effort for the man was ended Tuesday evening.

He was reported missing on Monday morning when the CCGS Vincent Massey arrived in St. John’s, N.L.

The coast guard says there was an “immediate” search on the vessel for the crew member and when he wasn’t located the sea and air search began.

Wednesday’s announcement said the agency was “devastated to confirm” the crew member had been lost at sea, adding that decisions to end searches are “never taken lightly.”

The coast guard says the employee was last seen on board Sunday evening as the vessel sailed along the northeast coast of Newfoundland.

Spokeswoman Kariane Charron says no other details are being provided at this time and that the RCMP will be investigating the matter as a missing person case.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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