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The Rogers-Shaw deal will make the Liberals nervous in an election year

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Prime Minister Justin Trudeau participates in a news conference on the COVID-19 pandemic in Ottawa, March 12, 2021.

Justin Tang/The Canadian Press

The first order of business is to stall. The next thing the Liberals have to figure out is how bad a political beating they will take if they approve the Rogers-Shaw deal. Or even if they just leave it hanging in the air during an election campaign.

Ordinarily, this kind of transaction – Rogers Communications Inc.’s $20.4-billion bid for rival Shaw Communications Inc. – would raise a few weak questions from government, slow-but-certain reviews and, eventually, public acquiescence.

But this deal, at this time, is a political problem for the governing Liberals.

This time, it is connected to the public’s sensitivity to the high costs of cellphone service, a Liberal campaign promise that hasn’t gone very far, and an expected federal election this year.

It’s worth remembering that in the 2019 election campaign, the Liberals promised to lower Canadians’ mobile-phone bills by 25 per cent – but only as a defence against the NDP, which was promising heavier regulation, including price caps, to make wireless plans more affordable.

That’s a pretty good indicator of the politics. Nearly everyone gets a mobile-phone bill, nearly everyone gets annoyed by it, and a lot of folks want government to do something about it. Some want the government to regulate prices, and those who don’t want Ottawa to foster competition.

The Liberals’ 2019 promise to lower Canadians’ wireless phone bills by 25 per cent within two years comes due this fall. But they haven’t done much other than redefining the way it is measured, to allow it to claim progress – by focusing on certain low-data phone plans offered by the telephone companies’ discount brands.

Now, the proposed Rogers-Shaw transaction would see one of the Big Three wireless companies – Bell, Rogers and Telus – buy out the fourth. For years, Liberal and Conservative governments have pursued the strategy of encouraging a fourth company that would force the Big Three to compete and lower prices. But Shaw is just the latest challenger to be bought out.

That makes approving the deal politically tricky for the Liberals. They are already taking a beating on all sides.

The NDP wants the Liberals to kill the transaction, arguing it would allow an oligopoly to consolidate and further “gouge” consumers. “I think people are going to start asking some hard questions,” New Democrat MP Brian Masse said in an interview.

Conservative industry critic Pierre Poilievre called for parliamentary hearings on the deal, saying his party would put the interests of consumers and workers ahead of the “corporate interests” of a “protected, regulated oligopoly.”

Cutting to the chase, Mr. Poilievre said his party won’t accept a reduction in the number of national players to three from four: Either the deal must be rejected, or conditions must be attached to the approval that would allow a fourth player to emerge. That second option would happen only if Rogers is forced to forgo some of Shaw’s assets, like wireless-spectrum licences, or some of its own.

So what do the Liberals do now? Stall. Killing a $20-billion transaction in a slow economy would be a big call. But it’s also risky to approve this one in a likely election year.

The government got a heads-up about the deal only Sunday night, according to John Power, a spokesman for Innovation Minister François-Philippe Champagne.

The Liberals are already noting that Rogers’ acquisition of Shaw has to be approved by the Competition Bureau, the Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission, and the Department of Innovation, Science and Economic Development.

The government will spin that it will judge the deal on affordability, competition and innovation. The companies will argue the expanded entity will be able to invest in 5G and will expand broadband networks. Maybe, given the glacial pace of CRTC reviews, the Liberals could hide behind pending reviews through a 2021 election. But maybe not.

If there is an election in June or October, you can expect the NDP to attack the Liberals on failing to act on wireless phone bills, and for failing to stop a few big rich companies from gaining a tighter stranglehold on the market. And the Liberals and NDP often fish in the same pool of voters. You can bet there are already Liberals in Ottawa who think there is more political upside in killing the deal than approving it.

Certainly, Canadian politicians know it’s not a vote-winning strategy to run as the friend of the phone company.

 

Source:- The Globe and Mail

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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