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The (sort of) good news behind Canada's epic job loss numbers – Financial Post

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Months passed before a consensus formed that the Great Recession was even an economic downturn. The data slowly deteriorated, at least until Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy in September 2008. That left time for equivocation.

The coronavirus crisis has arrived more like an atomic explosion than a slow-burning fuse. But at least we can do away with all the qualifiers about what’s going on in the economy.

Statistics Canada on April 9 reported that employment decreased by more than one million positions in March, wiping out all the jobs created since the autumn of 2016. The collapse was eight times greater than the previous record for job losses in a month, which was 124,800 in January 2009. It was also larger than the entire drop in employment during the downturns of 2008/09, 1990/92 and 1980/81.

The unemployment rate, which, at 5.6 per cent in February, was near an historic low, surged to 7.8 per cent, the highest rate since October 2010. Hours worked, an important driver of economic output, plunged 15 per cent, the biggest decline in records that date back to 1976. And, to keep us from drifting away from what really matters, the number of people who lost hours in March because they were sick spiked to 675,000, an increase of some 336,000.

“It is expected that the sudden employment decline observed in March will have a significant effect on the performance of the Canadian economy over the coming months,” Statistics Canada said. The observation is graver than it sounds, because the agency almost never risks interpreting its own numbers. For a take on what it really means, let’s turn to Bay Street: “Canada is now in a deep recession,” said Krishen Rangasamy, an economist at National Bank Financial.

Now what? We wait, and try to remember that all those terrifying graphs that economists are passing around on Twitter tell us nothing that we didn’t already know. Intelligent people keep writing and saying things like, “for the next couple of years at least, (Canada) won’t have much of a functioning economy to speak of.”

As far as I can tell, the pessimism is rooted in the extraordinary nature of the recession, not a clear-eyed assessment of actual conditions. Life might never go back to normal, but that doesn’t herald years of hardship. The most likely scenario remains that economies will start to reopen by the end of spring and start climbing back in the second half of the year.

That’s how investors see it. The S&P/TSX composite index rose after Statistics Canada released its first major tally of the coronavirus crisis, with investors betting that the flattening curve of newly reported cases in Europe and the United States shows the recession may be brutal, but it will be short.

“There is a light at the end of the (short) tunnel as the new number of COVID-19 cases on the planet is improving, a potential leading indicator of a positive turnaround in economic activity in the coming weeks and months,” Sébastien Lavoie, chief economist at Laurentian Bank Securities, said in a note to clients.

China is edging back to normal, and Austria, Denmark, Czech Republic and Norway have all announced plans to ease lockdown restrictions this month. “Until some restrictions are lifted in Canada, several financial bridges and tax breaks announced by governments will contribute to support income and ease financial stress,” Lavoie said.

That last part is important. The benefit of watching an epic collapse unfold in real time is that policy-makers and politicians aren’t left with time to ruminate and pontificate over what to do. The silver lining around the jobs numbers is that the epic decline will be met with a public rescue of historic proportions.

The Bank of Canada has already slashed interest rates to effectively zero, and when that wasn’t enough, it started creating billions of dollars to buy bonds. The federal government has promised to spend more than $100 billion on various measures, including a subsidy that will cover 75 per cent of most distressed companies’ wages. It has also promised tax deferrals and low-interest loans worth tens of billions of dollars more.

None of this will fully offset the economic loss from entire industries being forced to close overnight, nor will it guarantee that the economy will revert to what it was in February. But, unlike recessions past, the blow to households and companies will be cushioned almost immediately. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s rescue efforts have been hesitant, but he will still have put more foam on the runway than any of his predecessors.

It might also be worth keeping in mind that the economy still has a pulse. Simon De Baene, co-founder and chief executive of Groupe GSoft Inc., a Montreal-based business software maker, told me last week that he’s still hiring. The shift to a digital economy won’t be slowed by the coronavirus; it might even be accelerated.

Retailers such as Loblaw Cos. Inc. and Dollarama Inc. have given their frontline employees temporary raises. And companies involved in agriculture and other resource industries actually added workers in March, Statistics Canada said.

“Our order book is very solid,” Chuck Magro, chief executive of Nutrien Ltd., the Saskatoon-based potash miner, said in an interview last week. “All of our operations are running as per our original plan,” except for the introduction of social distancing and other safety measures, he said. “We haven’t seen any significant curtailments of production.”

A fertilizer company isn’t representative of the broader Canadian economy. But Nutrien is a reminder that some foundations remain in place. The 2020 crop is on its way to being planted at the very least.

Financial Post

• Email: kcarmichael@nationalpost.com | Twitter:

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STD epidemic slows as new syphilis and gonorrhea cases fall in US

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NEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. syphilis epidemic slowed dramatically last year, gonorrhea cases fell and chlamydia cases remained below prepandemic levels, according to federal data released Tuesday.

The numbers represented some good news about sexually transmitted diseases, which experienced some alarming increases in past years due to declining condom use, inadequate sex education, and reduced testing and treatment when the COVID-19 pandemic hit.

Last year, cases of the most infectious stages of syphilis fell 10% from the year before — the first substantial decline in more than two decades. Gonorrhea cases dropped 7%, marking a second straight year of decline and bringing the number below what it was in 2019.

“I’m encouraged, and it’s been a long time since I felt that way” about the nation’s epidemic of sexually transmitted infections, said the CDC’s Dr. Jonathan Mermin. “Something is working.”

More than 2.4 million cases of syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia were diagnosed and reported last year — 1.6 million cases of chlamydia, 600,000 of gonorrhea, and more than 209,000 of syphilis.

Syphilis is a particular concern. For centuries, it was a common but feared infection that could deform the body and end in death. New cases plummeted in the U.S. starting in the 1940s when infection-fighting antibiotics became widely available, and they trended down for a half century after that. By 2002, however, cases began rising again, with men who have sex with other men being disproportionately affected.

The new report found cases of syphilis in their early, most infectious stages dropped 13% among gay and bisexual men. It was the first such drop since the agency began reporting data for that group in the mid-2000s.

However, there was a 12% increase in the rate of cases of unknown- or later-stage syphilis — a reflection of people infected years ago.

Cases of syphilis in newborns, passed on from infected mothers, also rose. There were nearly 4,000 cases, including 279 stillbirths and infant deaths.

“This means pregnant women are not being tested often enough,” said Dr. Jeffrey Klausner, a professor of medicine at the University of Southern California.

What caused some of the STD trends to improve? Several experts say one contributor is the growing use of an antibiotic as a “morning-after pill.” Studies have shown that taking doxycycline within 72 hours of unprotected sex cuts the risk of developing syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia.

In June, the CDC started recommending doxycycline as a morning-after pill, specifically for gay and bisexual men and transgender women who recently had an STD diagnosis. But health departments and organizations in some cities had been giving the pills to people for a couple years.

Some experts believe that the 2022 mpox outbreak — which mainly hit gay and bisexual men — may have had a lingering effect on sexual behavior in 2023, or at least on people’s willingness to get tested when strange sores appeared.

Another factor may have been an increase in the number of health workers testing people for infections, doing contact tracing and connecting people to treatment. Congress gave $1.2 billion to expand the workforce over five years, including $600 million to states, cities and territories that get STD prevention funding from CDC.

Last year had the “most activity with that funding throughout the U.S.,” said David Harvey, executive director of the National Coalition of STD Directors.

However, Congress ended the funds early as a part of last year’s debt ceiling deal, cutting off $400 million. Some people already have lost their jobs, said a spokeswoman for Harvey’s organization.

Still, Harvey said he had reasons for optimism, including the growing use of doxycycline and a push for at-home STD test kits.

Also, there are reasons to think the next presidential administration could get behind STD prevention. In 2019, then-President Donald Trump announced a campaign to “eliminate” the U.S. HIV epidemic by 2030. (Federal health officials later clarified that the actual goal was a huge reduction in new infections — fewer than 3,000 a year.)

There were nearly 32,000 new HIV infections in 2022, the CDC estimates. But a boost in public health funding for HIV could also also help bring down other sexually transmitted infections, experts said.

“When the government puts in resources, puts in money, we see declines in STDs,” Klausner said.

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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World’s largest active volcano Mauna Loa showed telltale warning signs before erupting in 2022

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WASHINGTON (AP) — Scientists can’t know precisely when a volcano is about to erupt, but they can sometimes pick up telltale signs.

That happened two years ago with the world’s largest active volcano. About two months before Mauna Loa spewed rivers of glowing orange molten lava, geologists detected small earthquakes nearby and other signs, and they warned residents on Hawaii‘s Big Island.

Now a study of the volcano’s lava confirms their timeline for when the molten rock below was on the move.

“Volcanoes are tricky because we don’t get to watch directly what’s happening inside – we have to look for other signs,” said Erik Klemetti Gonzalez, a volcano expert at Denison University, who was not involved in the study.

Upswelling ground and increased earthquake activity near the volcano resulted from magma rising from lower levels of Earth’s crust to fill chambers beneath the volcano, said Kendra Lynn, a research geologist at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory and co-author of a new study in Nature Communications.

When pressure was high enough, the magma broke through brittle surface rock and became lava – and the eruption began in late November 2022. Later, researchers collected samples of volcanic rock for analysis.

The chemical makeup of certain crystals within the lava indicated that around 70 days before the eruption, large quantities of molten rock had moved from around 1.9 miles (3 kilometers) to 3 miles (5 kilometers) under the summit to a mile (2 kilometers) or less beneath, the study found. This matched the timeline the geologists had observed with other signs.

The last time Mauna Loa erupted was in 1984. Most of the U.S. volcanoes that scientists consider to be active are found in Hawaii, Alaska and the West Coast.

Worldwide, around 585 volcanoes are considered active.

Scientists can’t predict eruptions, but they can make a “forecast,” said Ben Andrews, who heads the global volcano program at the Smithsonian Institution and who was not involved in the study.

Andrews compared volcano forecasts to weather forecasts – informed “probabilities” that an event will occur. And better data about the past behavior of specific volcanos can help researchers finetune forecasts of future activity, experts say.

(asterisk)We can look for similar patterns in the future and expect that there’s a higher probability of conditions for an eruption happening,” said Klemetti Gonzalez.

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Waymo’s robotaxis now open to anyone who wants a driverless ride in Los Angeles

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Waymo on Tuesday opened its robotaxi service to anyone who wants a ride around Los Angeles, marking another milestone in the evolution of self-driving car technology since the company began as a secret project at Google 15 years ago.

The expansion comes eight months after Waymo began offering rides in Los Angeles to a limited group of passengers chosen from a waiting list that had ballooned to more than 300,000 people. Now, anyone with the Waymo One smartphone app will be able to request a ride around an 80-square-mile (129-square-kilometer) territory spanning the second largest U.S. city.

After Waymo received approval from California regulators to charge for rides 15 months ago, the company initially chose to launch its operations in San Francisco before offering a limited service in Los Angeles.

Before deciding to compete against conventional ride-hailing pioneers Uber and Lyft in California, Waymo unleashed its robotaxis in Phoenix in 2020 and has been steadily extending the reach of its service in that Arizona city ever since.

Driverless rides are proving to be more than just a novelty. Waymo says it now transports more than 50,000 weekly passengers in its robotaxis, a volume of business numbers that helped the company recently raise $5.6 billion from its corporate parent Alphabet and a list of other investors that included venture capital firm Andreesen Horowitz and financial management firm T. Rowe Price.

“Our service has matured quickly and our riders are embracing the many benefits of fully autonomous driving,” Waymo co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana said in a blog post.

Despite its inroads, Waymo is still believed to be losing money. Although Alphabet doesn’t disclose Waymo’s financial results, the robotaxi is a major part of an “Other Bets” division that had suffered an operating loss of $3.3 billion through the first nine months of this year, down from a setback of $4.2 billion at the same time last year.

But Waymo has come a long way since Google began working on self-driving cars in 2009 as part of project “Chauffeur.” Since its 2016 spinoff from Google, Waymo has established itself as the clear leader in a robotaxi industry that’s getting more congested.

Electric auto pioneer Tesla is aiming to launch a rival “Cybercab” service by 2026, although its CEO Elon Musk said he hopes the company can get the required regulatory clearances to operate in Texas and California by next year.

Tesla’s projected timeline for competing against Waymo has been met with skepticism because Musk has made unfulfilled promises about the company’s self-driving car technology for nearly a decade.

Meanwhile, Waymo’s robotaxis have driven more than 20 million fully autonomous miles and provided more than 2 million rides to passengers without encountering a serious accident that resulted in its operations being sidelined.

That safety record is a stark contrast to one of its early rivals, Cruise, a robotaxi service owned by General Motors. Cruise’s California license was suspended last year after one of its driverless cars in San Francisco dragged a jaywalking pedestrian who had been struck by a different car driven by a human.

Cruise is now trying to rebound by joining forces with Uber to make some of its services available next year in U.S. cities that still haven’t been announced. But Waymo also has forged a similar alliance with Uber to dispatch its robotaxi in Atlanta and Austin, Texas next year.

Another robotaxi service, Amazon’s Zoox, is hoping to begin offering driverless rides to the general public in Las Vegas at some point next year before also launching in San Francisco.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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