According to FactSet, S&P 500 companies1 generate around 40% of revenue outside of the U.S.2 That means these companies are significantly dependent on the health of the international economies in which they operate. They employ abroad, source goods abroad, and sell abroad.
But when you think of the U.S. economy, you generally think about activity inside the borders of the U.S. This includes U.S. employment levels, U.S. manufacturing activity, U.S. services sector activity, etc. This, by the way, includes non-U.S. companies with footprints in the U.S. like Toyota, B.P., Samsung, and Nestle.
We’re discussing this now because of news from FedEx FDX -1.25%↓ , a U.S.-based S&P 500 company. From the company’s press release on Thursday (emphasis added):
First quarter results were adversely impacted by global volume softness that accelerated in the final weeks of the quarter. FedEx Express results were particularly impacted by macroeconomic weakness in Asia and service challenges in Europe, leading to a revenue shortfall in this segment of approximately $500 million relative to company forecasts. FedEx Ground revenue was approximately $300 million below company forecasts.
FedEx is one of the so-called “early reporters” — that is, companies whose quarters end a month earlier than most companies. The last two months of FedEx’s quarter overlaps with the first two months of most companies’ Q3. And so the company’s warning may serve as a leading indicator for the upcoming Q3 earnings season, which kicks off in mid-October.
There’s also the matter of the surging U.S. dollar, which is leading to the dollar value of revenue generated abroad shrinking for U.S.-based multinational companies. Morgan Stanley analysts recently estimated that every 1% increase in the dollar index represents a roughly 0.5% reduction in S&P 500 earnings per share.
While dollar strength may be good news for U.S. importers and American vacationers traveling abroad, it’s bad news for everyone else watching their own currencies lose purchasing power in the international markets.
For investors and traders, the key question is what’s priced into the markets. The strong dollar and economic weakness abroad are known stories that have weighed on markets for a while. So, while these are clear headwinds, it’s very possible to see markets climb as analysts factor in the deteriorating macro backdrop into their earnings forecasts.
More from TKer:
Reviewing the macro crosscurrents ????
There were a few notable datapoints from last week to consider:
???? Inflation is still high. The consumer price index climbed 0.1% month over month in August, unexpectedly accelerating from 0.0% in July. Economists had expected the metric to decline 0.1% amid falling energy prices. While energy prices indeed fell during the period (gasoline prices tumbled 10.6%), prices for food and shelter remained hot, rising 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively. Excluding food and energy prices — which tend to be more volatile in the short run — core CPI growth unexpectedly accelerated to 0.6% in August from 0.3% in July. On a year-over-year basis, CPI was up 8.3% (hotter than expected), and core CPI was up 6.3% (also hotter than expected).
???? Expectations for inflation are coming down. From the University of Michigan’s September Survey of Consumers: “With continued declines in energy prices, the median expected year-ahead inflation rate declined to 4.6%, the lowest reading since last September. At 2.8%, median long run inflation expectations fell below the 2.9-3.1% range for the first time since July 2021.“ The New York Fed’s August Survey of Consumer Expectations released Monday echoed this sentiment. The median expectation for inflation one year ahead was 5.7% in August, down from its June high of 6.8%. From the NY Fed: “Expectations about year-ahead price increases for gas also continued to decline, with households now expecting gas prices to be roughly unchanged a year from now.“
???? The labor market is strong. Even as the economy cools and hiring slows, employers seem to be holding on tight to their employees. Initial claims for unemployment insurance came in at 213,000 for the week ending September 10, down from 218,000 the week prior. While the number is up from its six-decade low of 166,000 in March, it remains near levels seen during periods of economic expansion.
???? Small businesses are hiring. From Bank of America: “…small businesses continue to see strength in payroll payments. The three-month rolling average of payroll spend per client rose 11% year-over-year (YoY) in August, suggesting robust hiring and wage growth momentum. Restaurant and bar payroll payments may be moderating the most from recent highs, partly reflecting easing wage inflation in leisure & hospitality, but even here 18% YoY growth in August is reassuring.”
???? Retail sales are holding up. In August, retail sales unexpectedly climbed by 0.3% month over month. Autos sales climbed 2.8% while gas station sales fell 4.2%. Excluding autos and gas, sales increased by 0.3%, which wasn’t as strong as the 0.5% gain expected. The report reflected strength in “doing stuff” — restaurant and bar sales were up 1.1% — and weakness in “buying stuff” — furniture sales were down 1.3%. Note: Retail sales figures are not adjusted for inflation. Real sales levels are lower.
???? Stocks tumbled last week with the S&P 500 falling 4.7% to close at 3,873.33. The index is now down 19.2% from its January 3 closing high of 4,796.56 and up 5.6% from its June 16 closing low of 3,666.77.
OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.
Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.
Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.
Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.
Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.
Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.
Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.
According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.
That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.
People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.
That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.
Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.
That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.