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The Stock Market’s 25% Crash Has Only Just Begun, Analyst Warns – CCN.com

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  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) plunged 760 points in a brutal free-fall.
  • The rapid spread of coronavirus outside China has investors fleeing the stock market.
  • Cebile Capital analysts now see a 25% pullback in stocks.

The U.S. stock suffered a disastrous open, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) down nearly 800 points on Monday morning.

Investors are finally taking the coronavirus seriously as the deadly virus spread rapidly in Italy and South Korea over the weekend. Speaking to CNBC, Sunaina Sinha Haldea of Cebile Capital warned a major stock market correction is now on the cards.

You’re now finally seeing [financial markets] price in the downside scenario of the economic impacts. I think you can see stocks come down 20-25% at this point from where we are today if the economic news and repercussions in the real world continue.

Bank of America strategists also weighed in, saying the chance of recession is now significantly higher.

Dow bleeds out as stock markets plunge overnight

Stock markets worldwide took an immediate hit overnight as China’s Xi Jinping said his country still didn’t have the virus under control and admitted “shortcomings” in the government’s response.

The Dow Jones plunged nearly 1,000 points when U.S. stock exchanges opened on Monday morning.

The Dow endured a brutal plunge on Monday. One analyst says the stock market could crash by 25%. | Source: Yahoo Finance

By 10:20 am ET, the Dow had recovered to 28,232.29 for a net loss of 760.12 points or 2.62%.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were down 2.58% and 2.97%, respectively.

World’s long stock market bull run collapses after 12 years

The 25% stock market crash that Cebile Capital anticipates may have a forerunner in Malaysia, where the world’s longest equity bull run finally ended after a jaw-dropping 12-year streak.

The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index had never looked back after emerging from its previous bear market in 2008. Armed with a bevy of “recession-proof” stocks, the benchmark index had defied a litany of threats en route to the record high it set in April 2018.

After 12 years, the world’s longest stock market bull run is finally over. | Source: Yahoo Finance

That’s when the tide turned. Nearly two years later, the index closed 21% below its April 2018 peak, officially ending the world’s longest equity expansion on a day when stock markets around the world are suffering brutal losses.

Malaysia is plagued by a host of peculiar factors, culminating in the abrupt resignation of Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad. But other pressures that dragged the world’s longest stock market bull run down into bear territory may sound uncomfortably familiar to investors in the West.

Chief among them? The impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the global economy.

Coronavirus reality check hits global stocks

The deadly coronavirus took a turn for the worse over the weekend with cases ramping up outside China. Italy confirmed a total of 152 cases on Monday and locked down 50,000 people in northern regions near Milan. South Korea raised its alert to the highest level after numbers shot up to 600 cases.

The economic impact of the coronavirus going global is impossible to predict. But investors are cashing out and heading for safety.

Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd., Singapore stated:

With cases of COVID-19 still rising, it is hard to tell when manufacturing will bottom, potentially setting the stage for prolonged weakness … This is a safe-haven trade – you’re getting rid of risk in your portfolio –

That flight to safe havens is happening at a blistering pace with gold up to $1,700 this morning.

Coronavirus cases spread rapidly in Europe with towns in northern Italy on lockdown. Source: BBC

Dow Jones exodus, recession bells ringing?

The stock market selloff is unnerving, but the biggest warning sign is the bond market. The 30-year Treasury yield hit a record low overnight on high demand.

Even more telling is the 10-year yield. Last week, Bank of America warned that a drop below 1.4% would be a breaking point for potential recession.

Indeed, breaking 1.4% in an on-hold context for the Fed creates a significant inversion of the curve, pushes recession signals higher.

Well, it broke overnight, falling to 1.39%.

Any stock market buying opportunities?

Despite predicting a 25% fall in stocks, Sunaina Sinha Haldea pointed to some buying opportunities around the world.

There are certain geographies that are benefiting from the coronavirus news cycle. India might be one of them, Vietnam is another, as you see supply chain diversification, as you see other economies start to look a little bit better in the light of China weakness, which is not just trade troubles but now real economy troubles and slowdown.

According to her analysis, the most bearish sectors remain travel and leisure.

[Investors will be] staying away and potential shorting leisure, travel, discretionary consumer and so on.

Coronavirus could cost global economy trillions

Even conservative estimates put the potential economic impact of the coronavirus at trillions of U.S. dollars.

Experts came up with the rough estimate by extrapolating the economic impact of the SARS outbreak in 2003.

The full impact of the latest COVID-19 outbreak on global trade, travel, healthcare and logistics is so far unknown.

With additional reporting by Josiah Wilmoth

This article was edited by Samburaj Das.

Last modified: February 24, 2020 3:22 PM UTC

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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