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The strange death and rebirth of the Liberal Party under Trudeau

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2 years ago

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The 2011 federal election seemed to have fundamentally changed Canadian politics. And maybe it did. Just not quite in the way it was imagined.

In theory, that vote heralded the arrival of a new political era. The Liberal Party’s day was done — the broadly centrist institution that dominated Canadian politics in the 20th century was no longer fit for purpose. Canada would finally become more like its sister democracies, with a clear contest between a distinct party of the political right and a distinct party of the left. The future seemed to belong to the Conservatives and the NDP.

Then things changed again, as they are wont to do. Foremost among those unforeseen developments was Justin Trudeau’s election as Liberal leader, which happened 10 years ago this week.

In the short term, Trudeau’s mere presence breathed a bit of new life into the lungs of a prostrate party. In time, it also gave the party a new sense of direction. If the worst thing that could be said about the Liberal Party was that it represented the “mushy middle,” the best thing that could be said about Trudeau’s early leadership is that he made the party less mushy.

He announced that he would support the legalization of marijuana. He declared that his party would take a strict pro-choice position in favour of abortion rights. He unceremoniously ejected Liberal senators from the party’s parliamentary caucus. And then he laid out a party platform that did not include a commitment to balancing the federal budget.

Each of these moves — like Trudeau’s own decision to seek the party leadership — was met with some level of consternation and skepticism. But four years after the party was given up for dead, the Liberals won 184 seats and Trudeau became prime minister.

What has taken shape since then is the most active and activist generation of Liberals to hold power since Lester B. Pearson’s government in the 1960s.

Justin Trudeau arrives on stage in Montreal on Oct. 20, 2015, after the Liberals won the general election. (Nicholas Kamm/AFP/Getty Images)

In 2011, when Michael Ignatieff was leading the Liberals, the party platform outlined $8.2 billion in new investments spread over two years. In 2015, Trudeau’s platform covered $149.8 billion over four years. The words “racism,” “gender” and “reconciliation” don’t appear at all in the 2011 platform. Those words appeared 28, 46 and 19 times in the Liberal party’s 2021 platform.

Some of those changes in language and emphasis might simply reflect the changing times (“reconciliation” had not really entered the popular lexicon when the Liberal platform was written in 2011). But they also reflect a leader and a party that have tried enthusiastically to speak to emerging demands and issues.

On his 10th anniversary as leader, Trudeau’s government may be closer to the end of its time in office than the beginning. Much of the shine has come off the famous son of Pierre Trudeau. But the Liberals remain competitive in public opinion polling and comfortably ahead of the NDP.

Did the prophecies come true?

One way to read the events of the past 10 years is to conclude that the post-2011 theories of realignment turned out to be broadly correct — that the party system did polarize, with the Liberals shifting to become the dominant party of the left.

There may be something to that, at least in the short term. But it’s also possible to overstate how much the Liberals have moved leftward. The Liberals remain far less inclined than New Democrats to talk about class or heap scorn upon the rich and powerful.

Despite major new social investments, the Liberals still seem reluctant to create new federally run programs. Dental care is only happening because the NDP demanded it, while Liberal interest in pharmacare has waned.

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, left, and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh prepare for the start of the federal election English-language leaders’ debate in Gatineau, Que., on Sept. 9, 2021. (Justin Tang/The Canadian Press)

Even when you consider trends in federal spending, the Liberals’ leftward lurch seems more like a nudge. As a share of GDP, federal program spending in 2023-24 is projected to be merely on par with what it was in the late 1980s, when Brian Mulroney’s Progressive Conservative government was in office.

In electoral terms, it’s also possible to conclude that Trudeau’s election victories have merely dressed up what is actually a long-term decline in the Liberal Party’s standing.

The ceiling on Liberal support does seem to have been dropping gradually since Mackenzie King’s Liberals received 51.3 per cent of the vote in 1940. Louis St. Laurent topped out at 49.2 per cent, Pierre Trudeau at 45.4 per cent, Jean Chrétien at 41.2 per cent. While Trudeau won a majority in 2015, the Liberals could only draw 39.5 per cent of the vote.

If the ceiling falls any further, it will be hard for a future Liberal leader to stand up.

But the same is broadly true of the Conservative Party — a party that has its own existential challenges. John Diefenbaker’s Progressive Conservatives won 53.6 per cent of the vote in 1958 and Mulroney got 50 per cent in 1984. Stephen Harper’s Conservatives couldn’t get more than 39.6 per cent.

In a system that includes both a durable NDP and a resilient Bloc Québécois (and a Green Party of some sort), it might simply be very difficult for any party to routinely capture much more than 40 per cent of the vote.

So the Liberals probably won’t be able to dominate this century like they did the last one (from 1896 to 2006, the Liberals governed for 80 years). When they do govern, they might have to work more often with other parties (as they are now).

Not mushy enough?

Ten years after Trudeau became the 13th leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, there is a new complaint — that the party is now not mushy enough.

Political polarization is worth worrying about. Taken to extremes, it can breed the sort of tribalism that makes a democracy difficult to manage. And it’s very possible that the next Liberal leader will decide that Trudeau took the party too far to the left. Economic or political circumstances might require the Liberal Party to shift — just as it has in the past.

It’s also possible that the political centre isn’t, or wasn’t, quite where it was thought to be. And while some pundits might prefer moderation, other Canadians might fairly want progress to happen faster than a more centrist approach would allow.

Any Liberal who aspires to win elections might also note that while the Liberal vote has eroded, the combined Liberal-NDP vote has consistently hovered around 50 per cent for the last 40 years — peaking at 59.2 per cent in 2015 and only once dropping below 46 per cent (in 2008). And on an issue as central as climate change, Conservative voters are much less enthusiastic about government action.

But the ultimate lesson of the 2011 election and the last 10 years is that the future is very hard to predict — and that political success depends on both a little bit of luck and an ability to adapt.

 

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‘Disgraceful:’ N.S. Tory leader slams school’s request that military remove uniform

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4 days ago

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November 8, 2024

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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.

Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.

A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”

Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.

“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.

In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”

“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”

Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.

Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.

Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.

“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.

“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.

“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”

Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.

“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”

NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”

“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Saskatchewan NDP’s Beck holds first caucus meeting after election, outlines plans

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November 8, 2024

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REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.

Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.

She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.

Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.

Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.

The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Nova Scotia election: Liberals say province’s immigration levels are too high

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November 7, 2024

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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.

Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.

“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.

“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”

The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.

In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.

“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”

In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.

“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”

Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.

Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.

“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”

In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.

In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.

“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”

Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.

“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”

The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.

“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.

Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.

“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

— With files from Keith Doucette in Halifax

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