The Taliban Takeover Of Afghanistan Presents New Challenges For Social Media Companies - Forbes | Canada News Media
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The Taliban Takeover Of Afghanistan Presents New Challenges For Social Media Companies – Forbes

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The Taliban has remained a contradiction of sorts. The insurgent force, which this past week retook control of Afghanistan following the withdrawal of U.S. and coalition forces, never really operated as a traditional army. It was able to defeat the far better equipped Afghan Army despite lacking tanks, artillery and the support infrastructure that most modern military forces rely on.

However, at the same time the Taliban has embraced some modern technology for recruiting and propaganda, using social media to spread its message. While it operated as a rebel force opposed to the recognized government, Facebook and other platforms had banned the group as it was sanctioned as a terrorist organization under U.S. law.

Now that it is positioning itself as the rightful government in Afghanistan the situation could be very different for the Taliban.

“Social Media companies will need to make decisions regarding the legitimacy of the Taliban,” explained

Dr. William Pelfrey, professor of Homeland Security and Criminal Justice within the Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University.

“All major social media organizations have policies regarding state actors, and the recognized representatives – elected or appointed – of governments,” added Pelfrey. “The Taliban is the de facto governing body of Afghanistan but the legitimacy of power acquisition is questionable. A military leader who stages a coup should not receive the same recognition, or legitimacy, as a duly elected leader. This is particularly complicated as some countries, such as China and Russia, have started formal relations with the Taliban. Many other countries, including the United States Department of State view the Taliban as a terrorist organization.”

Taliban OK, Trump Not So Much

Some media outlets and no shortage of social media users have already been quick to note that the Taliban could make a return to the platforms even as former President Donald Trump has been silenced.

“It is still unclear what role platforms like Twitter and Facebook want to take in managing the information that they facilitate the spread of,” said Jui Ramaprasad, professor in the Decision, Operations and Information Technologies department at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business.

“Though Facebook has instituted the Oversight Board – “The Facebook Supreme Court” – and Twitter has become more active in suspending and even banning accounts, e.g. Donald Trump, a clear policy on what constitutes the criteria for suspension or account locking,” said Ramaprasad. “If Donald Trump was banned for potential for further inciting violence, one would think that the Taliban would be as well. But this is the result of shying away for clear, uniform and consistent policies and implementation of these policies.”

Given those facts, the social media companies may now have to be far more straightforward about what is allowed to be posted on the platforms, and what should be subject to removable.

“Indeed, concisely outlining what constitutes a violation of platform policy – e.g. the spreading of ‘conspiracy theories, disinformation, and hate speech’ – is not always straightforward in implementation, it is not sustainable to continue to evaluate these on a case-by-case basis,” said Ramaprasad.

A clear line may therefore need to be drawn, suggested Dr. Oscar Barroso Huertas, professor within the Graduate School of Business at CETYS University, Mexico.

“Today it is generally accepted with open academic honesty that media usually assume a position helping to fuel a conflict or, on the contrary, to de-escalate it,” said Huertas. “For years now, extremist groups of different kinds and origins, have been using social networks as an instrument for ideological propaganda (political branding) and, of course, as a model of recruitment (acquisition) and control (retention) of their potential followers, in traditionally non-Islamic countries (Political Marketing Funnel).”

Social Responsibly Of Social Media?

Prior to capturing much of the Afghan military equipment – including Blackhawk helicopters and vast caches of weapons – the Taliban were still able to share their message far and wide. Propaganda was a tool, and social media was the delivery method.

“The impressive message dissemination capacity, used to distribute their content —they could generate up to 1,700 tweets in less than two hours— means that, according to the research by Alto Analytics, Taliban groups could publish an average of eight videos, four magazines and just over 50 press releases,” said Huertas.

At the same time there should be social responsibility from those platforms to quell the dissemination of content that could put people’s lives in danger.

“Social media has a responsibility to remove illegal, racially inflammatory, and dangerous submissions,” said Pelfrey. “Any submission which incites violence against a specific population has to be flagged and deleted. While the Taliban has promised that they are not the same organization of twenty years ago, their actions must prove those assertions.

“If they resume oppression of other religions and advocate violence directed towards specific populations, social media organizations will need to adhere to existing policies and remove those posts and perhaps even ban Taliban persons from participating,” Pelfrey added. “This is not uncommon; North Korea’s tyrant leader is not allowed on Facebook or Instagram. Even American political leaders, including a former president, have faced bans from major social media organizations for inciting violence.”

To this end social media companies may have to balance safety with cultural norms.

“The Taliban are likely to impose Sharia law in Afghanistan,” explained Pelfrey. “Women will face brutality and inequity. For example, a woman who is the victim of sexual assault can be executed under Sharia law. Taliban leaders will argue that Sharia law is part of their religion and culture.  Social media companies must balance safety with respect for religious freedom. Legitimizing violence in religious terms, particularly within the framework of Sharia law, is not consistent with Western cultures and norms but may be consistent with the mores of some populations. Finding this balance will test the moral compass of many social media organizations.”

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Trump could cash out his DJT stock within weeks. Here’s what happens if he sells

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August 23, 2024

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Former President Donald Trump is on the brink of a significant financial decision that could have far-reaching implications for both his personal wealth and the future of his fledgling social media company, Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG). As the lockup period on his shares in TMTG, which owns Truth Social, nears its end, Trump could soon be free to sell his substantial stake in the company. However, the potential payday, which makes up a large portion of his net worth, comes with considerable risks for Trump and his supporters.

Trump’s stake in TMTG comprises nearly 59% of the company, amounting to 114,750,000 shares. As of now, this holding is valued at approximately $2.6 billion. These shares are currently under a lockup agreement, a common feature of initial public offerings (IPOs), designed to prevent company insiders from immediately selling their shares and potentially destabilizing the stock. The lockup, which began after TMTG’s merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), is set to expire on September 25, though it could end earlier if certain conditions are met.

Should Trump decide to sell his shares after the lockup expires, the market could respond in unpredictable ways. The sale of a substantial number of shares by a major stakeholder like Trump could flood the market, potentially driving down the stock price. Daniel Bradley, a finance professor at the University of South Florida, suggests that the market might react negatively to such a large sale, particularly if there aren’t enough buyers to absorb the supply. This could lead to a sharp decline in the stock’s value, impacting both Trump’s personal wealth and the company’s market standing.

Moreover, Trump’s involvement in Truth Social has been a key driver of investor interest. The platform, marketed as a free speech alternative to mainstream social media, has attracted a loyal user base largely due to Trump’s presence. If Trump were to sell his stake, it might signal a lack of confidence in the company, potentially shaking investor confidence and further depressing the stock price.

Trump’s decision is also influenced by his ongoing legal battles, which have already cost him over $100 million in legal fees. Selling his shares could provide a significant financial boost, helping him cover these mounting expenses. However, this move could also have political ramifications, especially as he continues his bid for the Republican nomination in the 2024 presidential race.

Trump Media’s success is closely tied to Trump’s political fortunes. The company’s stock has shown volatility in response to developments in the presidential race, with Trump’s chances of winning having a direct impact on the stock’s value. If Trump sells his stake, it could be interpreted as a lack of confidence in his own political future, potentially undermining both his campaign and the company’s prospects.

Truth Social, the flagship product of TMTG, has faced challenges in generating traffic and advertising revenue, especially compared to established social media giants like X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook. Despite this, the company’s valuation has remained high, fueled by investor speculation on Trump’s political future. If Trump remains in the race and manages to secure the presidency, the value of his shares could increase. Conversely, any missteps on the campaign trail could have the opposite effect, further destabilizing the stock.

As the lockup period comes to an end, Trump faces a critical decision that could shape the future of both his personal finances and Truth Social. Whether he chooses to hold onto his shares or cash out, the outcome will likely have significant consequences for the company, its investors, and Trump’s political aspirations.

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Arizona man accused of social media threats to Trump is arrested

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August 23, 2024

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Cochise County, AZ — Law enforcement officials in Arizona have apprehended Ronald Lee Syvrud, a 66-year-old resident of Cochise County, after a manhunt was launched following alleged death threats he made against former President Donald Trump. The threats reportedly surfaced in social media posts over the past two weeks, as Trump visited the US-Mexico border in Cochise County on Thursday.

Syvrud, who hails from Benson, Arizona, located about 50 miles southeast of Tucson, was captured by the Cochise County Sheriff’s Office on Thursday afternoon. The Sheriff’s Office confirmed his arrest, stating, “This subject has been taken into custody without incident.”

In addition to the alleged threats against Trump, Syvrud is wanted for multiple offences, including failure to register as a sex offender. He also faces several warrants in both Wisconsin and Arizona, including charges for driving under the influence and a felony hit-and-run.

The timing of the arrest coincided with Trump’s visit to Cochise County, where he toured the US-Mexico border. During his visit, Trump addressed the ongoing border issues and criticized his political rival, Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, for what he described as lax immigration policies. When asked by reporters about the ongoing manhunt for Syvrud, Trump responded, “No, I have not heard that, but I am not that surprised and the reason is because I want to do things that are very bad for the bad guys.”

This incident marks the latest in a series of threats against political figures during the current election cycle. Just earlier this month, a 66-year-old Virginia man was arrested on suspicion of making death threats against Vice President Kamala Harris and other public officials.

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Trump Media & Technology Group Faces Declining Stock Amid Financial Struggles and Increased Competition

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August 20, 2024

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Trump Media & Technology Group’s stock has taken a significant hit, dropping more than 11% this week following a disappointing earnings report and the return of former U.S. President Donald Trump to the rival social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter. This decline is part of a broader downward trend for the parent company of Truth Social, with the stock plummeting nearly 43% since mid-July. Despite the sharp decline, some investors remain unfazed, expressing continued optimism for the company’s financial future or standing by their investment as a show of political support for Trump.

One such investor, Todd Schlanger, an interior designer from West Palm Beach, explained his commitment to the stock, stating, “I’m a Republican, so I supported him. When I found out about the stock, I got involved because I support the company and believe in free speech.” Schlanger, who owns around 1,000 shares, is a regular user of Truth Social and is excited about the company’s future, particularly its plans to expand its streaming services. He believes Truth Social has the potential to be as strong as Facebook or X, despite the stock’s recent struggles.

However, Truth Social’s stock performance is deeply tied to Trump’s political influence and the company’s ability to generate sustainable revenue, which has proven challenging. An earnings report released last Friday showed the company lost over $16 million in the three-month period ending in June. Revenue dropped by 30%, down to approximately $836,000 compared to $1.2 million during the same period last year.

In response to the earnings report, Truth Social CEO Devin Nunes emphasized the company’s strong cash position, highlighting $344 million in cash reserves and no debt. He also reiterated the company’s commitment to free speech, stating, “From the beginning, it was our intention to make Truth Social an impenetrable beachhead of free speech, and by taking extraordinary steps to minimize our reliance on Big Tech, that is exactly what we are doing.”

Despite these assurances, investors reacted negatively to the quarterly report, leading to a steep drop in stock price. The situation was further complicated by Trump’s return to X, where he posted for the first time in a year. Trump’s exclusivity agreement with Trump Media & Technology Group mandates that he posts personal content first on Truth Social. However, he is allowed to make politically related posts on other social media platforms, which he did earlier this week, potentially drawing users away from Truth Social.

For investors like Teri Lynn Roberson, who purchased shares near the company’s peak after it went public in March, the decline in stock value has been disheartening. However, Roberson remains unbothered by the poor performance, saying her investment was more about supporting Trump than making money. “I’m way at a loss, but I am OK with that. I am just watching it for fun,” Roberson said, adding that she sees Trump’s return to X as a positive move that could expand his reach beyond Truth Social’s “echo chamber.”

The stock’s performance holds significant financial implications for Trump himself, as he owns a 65% stake in Trump Media & Technology Group. According to Fortune, this stake represents a substantial portion of his net worth, which could be vulnerable if the company continues to struggle financially.

Analysts have described Truth Social as a “meme stock,” similar to companies like GameStop and AMC that saw their stock prices driven by ideological investments rather than business fundamentals. Tyler Richey, an analyst at Sevens Report Research, noted that the stock has ebbed and flowed based on sentiment toward Trump. He pointed out that the recent decline coincided with the rise of U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee, which may have dampened perceptions of Trump’s 2024 election prospects.

Jay Ritter, a finance professor at the University of Florida, offered a grim long-term outlook for Truth Social, suggesting that the stock would likely remain volatile, but with an overall downward trend. “What’s lacking for the true believer in the company story is, ‘OK, where is the business strategy that will be generating revenue?'” Ritter said, highlighting the company’s struggle to produce a sustainable business model.

Still, for some investors, like Michael Rogers, a masonry company owner in North Carolina, their support for Trump Media & Technology Group is unwavering. Rogers, who owns over 10,000 shares, said he invested in the company both as a show of support for Trump and because of his belief in the company’s financial future. Despite concerns about the company’s revenue challenges, Rogers expressed confidence in the business, stating, “I’m in it for the long haul.”

Not all investors are as confident. Mitchell Standley, who made a significant return on his investment earlier this year by capitalizing on the hype surrounding Trump Media’s planned merger with Digital World Acquisition Corporation, has since moved on. “It was basically just a pump and dump,” Standley told ABC News. “I knew that once they merged, all of his supporters were going to dump a bunch of money into it and buy it up.” Now, Standley is staying away from the company, citing the lack of business fundamentals as the reason for his exit.

Truth Social’s future remains uncertain as it continues to struggle with financial losses and faces stiff competition from established social media platforms. While its user base and investor sentiment are bolstered by Trump’s political following, the company’s long-term viability will depend on its ability to create a sustainable revenue stream and maintain relevance in a crowded digital landscape.

As the company seeks to stabilize, the question remains whether its appeal to Trump’s supporters can translate into financial success or whether it will remain a volatile stock driven more by ideology than business fundamentals.

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