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The tragic politics of climate change | TheHill – The Hill

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What does the United Nations’ COP26 climate conference in Glasgow tell us about the state of global efforts to limit climate change to under 2 degrees (Celsius)? The short answer is that despite a growing sense of trepidation about hastening climate change, the gap between present and future, and between intentions and results, remains wide.

That has been the story of the previous UN climate meetings, the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris climate accords. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have risen 60 percent since the first climate gathering in 1992. It reflects the vexing nature of the issue.

Addressing climate change is mostly about transitioning to a post-petroleum clean energy system. But, historically, shifts – wood burning to coal, coal to oil and gas, and gas to renewables – are not swift, and the disruptions of the transition politically intimidating.

The difficult politics of seeking disruptive short-term sweeping change for deferred future benefits yields bold pledges to reach net zero CO2 emissions by 2050 with few shared roadmaps on how to get there.

The meeting couldn’t have taken place under worse circumstances: against the backdrop of growing great power competition when greatly increased global cooperation is vital, and amid stark droughts, floods, record heat waves, rising oceans, COVID-19, rising oil and gas prices and a surge in worldwide coal use.

Thus, there was the odd specter of President BidenJoe BidenNicaragua’s Ortega set to win election amid international criticism Rep. Gosar posts anime video showing him striking Biden, Ocasio-Cortez Overnight Energy & Environment — Presented by ExxonMobil — Activists cry foul over COP26 draft MORE seeking to curb U.S. oil and gas production while pleading with OPEC to increase theirs. The leaders of some of largest GHG-emitting states – China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir PutinVladimir Vladimirovich PutinOvernight Defense & National Security — Pentagon works to evacuate US troops’ families CIA director raised ‘serious’ concerns about Russia military actions during call with Putin: CNN Justice Department seizes million as part of crackdown on hackers linked to Kaseya attack MORE – didn’t attend.

That said, the meeting has displayed a heightened sense of urgency, as negotiators tried to turn leaders’ commitments into results. To Biden’s credit, 100 nations signed on to a U.S.-led initiative to cut methane emissions by 30 percent by 2030. Methane is 80 times more toxic than CO2 emissions and can yield immediate GHG reductions.

There was progress on global carbon-trading talks — putting a price on carbon is the fastest way to use much less of it. COP26 delegates also committed to end deforestation by 2030. Trees are a major absorber of GHG emissions. A group of 457 financial institutions managing $130 trillion in assets pledged to prioritize green investments, a growing trend. But the devil is in the details: To date, follow-through on such pledges has been abysmal, though there are promising signs this time around.

Hopefully, the $550 billion in Biden’s Build Back Better (BBB) legislation will make good on many U.S. pledges. BBB is a mix of tax credits, investments and regulations to accelerate the electrification of transport, renewable energy R&D and infrastructure (e.g. smart grids and electric vehicle (EV) charging stations), the largest such effort yet.

Unfortunately, efforts by some brave souls in Congress to create a carbon tax, to allow market forces to drive the process, was shot down. Most economists and several ex-secretaries of state have promoted a carbon tax as the most efficient way to decarbonize; but again, politics prevailed. Nonetheless, it all suggests a new seriousness.

Yet the intractable politics of climate change remain. Recent studies suggest it is technically possible to reach Biden’s U.S. goal of reducing net emissions by 50 percent by 2030, and the UN and Paris accord goals of reaching net zero emissions by 2050 and limiting temperature rise to under 2 degrees.

But the path to get there requires extraordinary transformations that are difficult to see being realized. The reality of surging coal use in China and the U.S., the two largest emitters, as U.S. shale oil and gas producers ramp up production highlight the inertia of the present.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has constructed a detailed roadmap of what net zero GHG emissions by 2050 would require. Among the items: Ending new oil and gas projects starting next year and increasing the use of EVs in the U.S. from 3 percent now to 60 percent by 2030.

The list goes on, but you get the point. Thankfully, investments, research and development, and new deployments are ramping up dramatically, and it is technically possible to reach the net-zero goals by 2050. But even with the new momentum, it remains a very ambitious goal.

But there is a rich menu of low-hanging fruit, things that can be done now to reduce emissions which negotiators finalizing COP26 efforts in Glasgow should pursue. For starters, ramp up the methane initiative beyond the 30 percent goal. Studies suggest ending methane emissions could reduce temperature rise up to 0.3 percent. And begin to phase out coal by expanding natural gas, which produces 50 percent fewer emissions than coal. Agreeing on global carbon trading rules would be another good step.

Natural methods are even easier. Trees and soil are huge carbon sinks. To implement the vague deforestation pledge, have the G-20 endorse a plan for nations, in public-private partnerships, to plant one billion trees by 2025. Giving farmers credits for using techniques that allow soil to better capture C02 would make a near-term difference.

A big push on energy efficiency should also be on the menu. Buildings consume about one-third of electricity in the U.S. Retrofitting buildings with net-zero technology and requiring it of all new buildings could yield quick results. Similarly, with appliances. The BBB would install 500,000 charging stations and would make EVs more attractive to consumers. The U.S. could transition government fleets to electric and/or hydrogen power as a priority.

This is just a sampling. As weather gets more extreme, and leaders become more serious about addressing climate change, a carbon tax should be revisited.

Finally, there is innovation. Ramping up R&D for battery storage, renewables, hydrogen and other energy technologies (including modular small nuclear plants) as well as experimenting with geo-engineering techniques to alter warming, could make a difference in the 2040-2050 timeframe. But for the moment, the politics of climate change still impose dangerous limits.

Robert A. Manning is a senior fellow of the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security and its New American Engagement Initiative at the Atlantic Council. He was a senior counselor to the undersecretary of state for global affairs from 2001 to 2004, a member of the U.S. Department of State policy planning staff from 2004 to 2008 and on the National Intelligence Council strategic futures group from 2008 to 2012. Follow him on Twitter @Rmanning4.

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Political parties cool to idea of new federal regulations for nomination contests

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OTTAWA – Several federal political parties are expressing reservations about the prospect of fresh regulations to prevent foreign meddlers from tainting their candidate nomination processes.

Elections Canada has suggested possible changes to safeguard nominations, including barring non-citizens from helping choose candidates, requiring parties to publish contest rules and explicitly outlawing behaviour such as voting more than once.

However, representatives of the Bloc Québécois, Green Party and NDP have told a federal commission of inquiry into foreign interference that such changes may be unwelcome, difficult to implement or counterproductive.

The Canada Elections Act currently provides for limited regulation of federal nomination races and contestants.

For instance, only contestants who accept $1,000 in contributions or incur $1,000 in expenses have to file a financial return. In addition, the act does not include specific obligations concerning candidacy, voting, counting or results reporting other than the identity of the successful nominee.

A report released in June by the National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians expressed concern about how easily foreign actors can take advantage of loopholes and vulnerabilities to support preferred candidates.

Lucy Watson, national director of the NDP, told the inquiry Thursday she had concerns about the way in which new legislation would interact with the internal decision-making of the party.

“We are very proud of the fact that our members play such a significant role in shaping the internal policies and procedures and infrastructure of the party, and I would not want to see that lost,” she said.

“There are guidelines, there are best practices that we would welcome, but if we were to talk about legal requirements and legislation, that’s something I would have to take away and put further thought into, and have discussions with folks who are integral to the party’s governance.”

In an August interview with the commission of inquiry, Bloc Québécois executive director Mathieu Desquilbet said the party would be opposed to any external body monitoring nomination and leadership contest rules.

A summary tabled Thursday says Desquilbet expressed doubts about the appropriateness of requiring nomination candidates to file a full financial report with Elections Canada, saying the agency’s existing regulatory framework and the Bloc’s internal rules on the matter are sufficient.

Green Party representatives Jon Irwin and Robin Marty told the inquiry in an August interview it would not be realistic for an external body, like Elections Canada, to administer nomination or leadership contests as the resources required would exceed the federal agency’s capacity.

A summary of the interview says Irwin and Marty “also did not believe that rules violations could effectively be investigated by an external body like the Office of the Commissioner of Canada Elections.”

“The types of complaints that get raised during nomination contests can be highly personal, politically driven, and could overwhelm an external body.”

Marty, national campaign director for the party, told the inquiry Thursday that more reporting requirements would also place an administrative burden on volunteers and riding workers.

In addition, he said that disclosing the vote tally of a nomination contest could actually help foreign meddlers by flagging the precise number of ballots needed for a candidate to be chosen.

Irwin, interim executive director of the Greens, said the ideal tactic for a foreign country would be working to get someone in a “position of power” within a Canadian political party.

He said “the bad guys are always a step ahead” when it comes to meddling in the Canadian political process.

In May, David Vigneault, director of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service at the time, said it was very clear from the design of popular social media app TikTok that data gleaned from its users is available to the Chinese government.

A December 2022 CSIS memo tabled at the inquiry Thursday said TikTok “has the potential to be exploited” by Beijing to “bolster its influence and power overseas, including in Canada.”

Asked about the app, Marty told the inquiry the Greens would benefit from more “direction and guidance,” given the party’s lack of resources to address such things.

Representatives of the Liberal and Conservative parties are slated to appear at the inquiry Friday, while chief electoral officer Stéphane Perrault is to testify at a later date.

After her party representatives appeared Thursday, Green Leader Elizabeth May told reporters it was important for all party leaders to work together to come up with acceptable rules.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

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New Brunswick election candidate profile: Green Party Leader David Coon

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FREDERICTON – A look at David Coon, leader of the Green Party of New Brunswick:

Born: Oct. 28, 1956.

Early years: Born in Toronto and raised in Montreal, he spent about three decades as an environmental advocate.

Education: A trained biologist, he graduated with a bachelor of science from McGill University in Montreal in 1978.

Family: He and his wife Janice Harvey have two daughters, Caroline and Laura.

Before politics: Worked as an environmental educator, organizer, activist and manager for 33 years, mainly with the Conservation Council of New Brunswick.

Politics: Joined the Green Party of Canada in May 2006 and was elected leader of the New Brunswick Green Party in September 2012. Won a seat in the legislature in 2014 — a first for the province’s Greens.

Quote: “It was despicable. He’s clearly decided to take the low road in this campaign, to adopt some Trump-lite fearmongering.” — David Coon on Sept. 12, 2024, reacting to Blaine Higgs’s claim that the federal government had decided to send 4,600 asylum seekers to New Brunswick.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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New Brunswick election profile: Progressive Conservative Leader Blaine Higgs

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FREDERICTON – A look at Blaine Higgs, leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick.

Born: March 1, 1954.

Early years: The son of a customs officer, he grew up in Forest City, N.B., near the Canada-U.S. border.

Education: Graduated from the University of New Brunswick with a degree in mechanical engineering in 1977.

Family: Married his high-school sweetheart, Marcia, and settled in Saint John, N.B., where they had four daughters: Lindsey, Laura, Sarah and Rachel.

Before politics: Hired by Irving Oil a week after he graduated from university and was eventually promoted to director of distribution. Worked for 33 years at the company.

Politics: Elected to the legislature in 2010 and later served as finance minister under former Progressive Conservative Premier David Alward. Elected Tory leader in 2016 and has been premier since 2018.

Quote: “I’ve always felt parents should play the main role in raising children. No one is denying gender diversity is real. But we need to figure out how to manage it.” — Blaine Higgs in a year-end interview in 2023, explaining changes to school policies about gender identity.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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