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The Trudeau Liberals had a tough year. What will they do in 2024?

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When Justin Trudeau went in to huddle with his cabinet in Prince Edward Island in August this year, he had his work cut out for him as anger over housing and affordability in Canada grows.

Fatigue with an administration now in its eighth year seemed to be setting in, as multiple polls have suggested. In Charlottetown, Trudeau tasked his cabinet with finding a way through the biggest domestic crises. As the new year nears, the question now is: are they doing enough?

“I wouldn’t put this down on my list as one of the great years of my life if I were Justin Trudeau,” said Myer Siemiatycki, professor emeritus of politics at Toronto Metropolitan University. “Politically, I would say that it’s been a very difficult year for his Liberal Party and for himself as prime minister on a couple of grounds.”

Both at home and abroad, Trudeau found himself beleaguered in 2023. Internationally, the twin conflicts in eastern Europe and the Middle East were accompanied by concerns over interference by foreign governments or their agents in Canada’s elections and internal affairs.

“It’s been a long time since we’ve had a prime minister face so many acute, difficult challenges simultaneously within such a short period of time,” Siemiatycki said.

Domestically, experts agree that the rising cost of living and the housing crisis were what turned some voters against the Liberals. This comes as Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre maintained a consistent lead in the polls in 2023. Polling by Ipsos, provided exclusively to Global News, has shown twice in the last two months that between 69 and 73 per cent of Canadians believe Trudeau should step down now. Among those who identify as Liberal Party supporters, one in three think it’s time for a new party leader.

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Amid a record year for wildfires in Canada, a majority of Canadians said they wanted the federal government to do more to stop the climate crisis from getting worse – but worry about increased costs to them. The government’s immigration policies have also been becoming unpopular, with a majority of Canadians believing that higher immigration levels were causing the housing crisis to get worse.

For many, affordability is top of mind. A recent poll said one in four Canadians are worried that their income is not enough to meet basic needs.

“It would take a master juggler to keep all these balls in the air and to handle all of them effortlessly and successfully,” Siemiatycki said. “But I also think there are signs of potential turnaround.”

The new polling done by Ipsos exclusively for Global News found that 69 per cent of Canadians feel Trudeau should resign as Liberal leader and prime minister. The finding comes after earlier polling by Ipsos for Global News done between Nov. 14 and 17 suggested 72 per cent of Canadians felt the same, marking a three-point decrease in the sentiment but within the poll’s margin of error.

“When you start poking away at it among people who actually say they voted for him or supported him in the past, their view is one or two things. One is his time has come and gone. He’s given a service and it’s really Canada just needs a change,” Ipsos CEO Darrell Bricker said at the time.

“And then there’s another group among his supporters that say, not this time, because I don’t think he can win and we need to do whatever we can to stop Pierre Poilievre.”

Since the cabinet shuffle in July and the retreat in August, the Liberal government has pressed forward with a slew of announcements. Since emerging from their huddle in P.E.I, the government has pushed major grocery store chains over rising food prices – though efforts to reach a grocers code of conduct may now be stalled – and also threatened curbs on the intake of international students, announced plans they say will help address the labour shortage, introduced a framework for a cap on oil and gas emissions and laid out their plans for dental care for Canadians.

But the biggest moves, experts agree, have come in terms of the housing crisis.

The most recent changes began in July, with Sean Fraser being moved to the Housing Ministry in a move one former senior Liberals says speaks to the need for the government to communicate clearly to Canadians.

“Sean Fraser is exceptional in bringing people to the table, and he is also exceptional in communicating with Canadians on what the federal government is doing. It’s not enough just to do what you have to do. It’s critical for this government to be able to communicate what they are doing over and over again,” said Zita Astravas, former director of issues management for Trudeau and previously a chief of staff to the public safety minister.

“Mr. Fraser is very much turning into the government’s fixer, and I mean that in a positive sense,” Siemiatycki said. “He’s explaining what he’s doing to Canadians very well. His star is definitely on the rise.”

Since taking over the Housing Ministry, Fraser has overseen the rollout of the federal Housing Accelerator Fund and signed deals with a number of municipalities across Canada that have made rapid zoning changes to allow more housing density. In December, Fraser announced the revival of a Second World War-era housing policy that led to the construction of tens of thousands of homes across Canada.

But housing is not an issue that the government will be able to solve overnight, or even within a year. According to a recent report, Canada is short 4.4 million homes that are affordable to people in housing need.

Siemiatycki said whenever an election comes, the Liberals will need to show some tangible progress on housing.

“Something tangible that the federal government would have is to say, here’s how many municipalities we have agreements with to really fast forward the building of affordable housing. I think that would have some impact.”

He also predicted that the government might be a little less bullish on immigration, and both he and Astravas agree that an election is unlikely to be called before 2025.

Astravas said Trudeau has proven the polls wrong before.

“(Trudeau) performs best when he faces a challenge. I don’t think that there has been an election that he’s been leading into in the polls. All that work that he puts in leading up to a campaign, yields results and he’s putting that work in now,” said Astravas, who worked on Trudeau’s campaigns in 2015, 2019 and 2021.

“Justin Trudeau was the leader of the third party in 2015. I was on that campaign. Two years out, people did not expect the results that we saw come through in 2015.”

She said Trudeau could take a leaf out of his 2015 campaign playbook and start to get out of Ottawa more. Astravas said she forecasts a busy travel schedule for Trudeau in 2024.

“He likes to visit coast to coast to coast and sit down with Canadians, whether it’s in a boardroom or whether it’s in a classroom or boardroom or in a community centre. That is when he’s at his best, when he’s getting on the road and talking to Canadian families,” she said.

— with files from David Baxter

 

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Looking for the next mystery bestseller? This crime bookstore can solve the case

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WINNIPEG – Some 250 coloured tacks pepper a large-scale world map among bookshelves at Whodunit Mystery Bookstore.

Estonia, Finland, Japan and even Fenwick, Ont., have pins representing places outside Winnipeg where someone has ordered a page-turner from the independent bookstore that specializes in mystery and crime fiction novels.

For 30 years, the store has been offering fans of Agatha Christie’s Hercule Poirot or Arthur Conan Doyle’s Sherlock Holmes a place to get lost in whodunits both old and new.

Jack and Wendy Bumsted bought the shop in the Crescentwood neighbourhood in 2007 from another pair of mystery lovers.

The married couple had been longtime customers of the store. Wendy Bumsted grew up reading Perry Mason novels while her husband was a historian with vast knowledge of the crime fiction genre.

At the time, Jack Bumsted was retiring from teaching at the University of Manitoba when he was looking for his next venture.

“The bookstore came up and we bought it, I think, within a week,” Wendy Bumsted said in an interview.

“It never didn’t seem like a good idea.”

In the years since the Bumsteds took ownership, the family has witnessed the decline in mail-order books, the introduction of online retailers, a relocation to a new space next to the original, a pandemic and the death of beloved co-owner Jack Bumsted in 2020.

But with all the changes that come with owning a small business, customers continue to trust their next mystery fix will come from one of the shelves at Whodunit.

Many still request to be called about books from specific authors, or want to be notified if a new book follows their favourite format. Some arrive at the shop like clockwork each week hoping to get suggestions from Wendy Bumsted or her son on the next big hit.

“She has really excellent instincts on what we should be getting and what we should be promoting,” Micheal Bumsted said of his mother.

Wendy Bumsted suggested the store stock “Thursday Murder Club,” the debut novel from British television host Richard Osman, before it became a bestseller. They ordered more copies than other bookstores in Canada knowing it had the potential to be a hit, said Michael Bumsted.

The store houses more than 18,000 new and used novels. That’s not including the boxes of books that sit in Wendy Bumsted’s tiny office, or the packages that take up space on some of the only available seating there, waiting to be added to the inventory.

Just as the genre has evolved, so has the Bumsteds’ willingness to welcome other subjects on their shelves — despite some pushback from loyal customers and initially the Bumsted patriarch.

For years, Jack Bumsted refused to sell anything outside the crime fiction genre, including his own published books. Instead, he would send potential buyers to another store, but would offer to sign the books if they came back with them.

Wendy Bumsted said that eventually changed in his later years.

Now, about 15 per cent of the store’s stock is of other genres, such as romance or children’s books.

The COVID-19 pandemic forced them to look at expanding their selection, as some customers turned to buying books through the store’s website, which is set up to allow purchasers to get anything from the publishers the Bumsteds have contracts with.

In 2019, the store sold fewer than 100 books online. That number jumped to more than 3,000 in 2020, as retailers had to deal with pandemic lockdowns.

After years of running a successful mail-order business, the store was able to quickly adapt when it had to temporarily shut its doors, said Michael Bumsted.

“We were not a store…that had to figure out how to get books to people when they weren’t here.”

He added being a community bookstore with a niche has helped the family stay in business when other retailers have struggled. Part of that has included building lasting relationships.

“Some people have put it in their wills that their books will come to us,” said Wendy Bumsted.

Some of those collections have included tips on traveling through Asia in the early 2000s or the history of Australian cricket.

Micheal Bumsted said they’ve had to learn to be patient with selling some of these more obscure titles, but eventually the time comes for them to find a new home.

“One of the great things about physical books is that they can be there for you when you are ready for them.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published on Sept. 15, 2024.



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Labour Minister praises Air Canada, pilots union for avoiding disruptive strike

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MONTREAL – Canada’s labour minister is praising both Air Canada and the union representing about 5,200 of its pilots for averting a work stoppage that would have disrupted travel for hundreds of thousands of passengers.

Steven MacKinnon’s comments came in a statement shared to social media shortly after Canada’s largest air carrier announced it had reached a tentative labour deal with the Air Line Pilots Association.

MacKinnon thanked both sides and federal mediators, saying the airline and its pilots approached negotiations with “seriousness and a resolve to get a deal.”

The tentative agreement averts a strike or lockout that could have begun as early as Wednesday for Air Canada and Air Canada Rouge, with flight cancellations expected before then.

The airline now says flights will continue as normal while union members vote on the tentative four-year contract.

Air Canada had called on the federal government to intervene in the dispute, but Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Friday that would only happen if it became clear no negotiated agreement was possible.

This report from The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 15, 2024.

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The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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As plant-based milk becomes more popular, brands look for new ways to compete

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When it comes to plant-based alternatives, Canadians have never had so many options — and nowhere is that choice more abundantly clear than in the milk section of the dairy aisle.

To meet growing demand, companies are investing in new products and technology to keep up with consumer tastes and differentiate themselves from all the other players on the shelf.

“The product mix has just expanded so fast,” said Liza Amlani, co-founder of the Retail Strategy Group.

She said younger generations in particular are driving growth in the plant-based market as they are consuming less dairy and meat.

Commercial sales of dairy milk have been weakening for years, according to research firm Mintel, likely in part because of the rise of plant-based alternatives — even though many Canadians still drink dairy.

The No. 1 reason people opt for plant-based milk is because they see it as healthier than dairy, said Joel Gregoire, Mintel’s associate director for food and drink.

“Plant-based milk, the one thing about it — it’s not new. It’s been around for quite some time. It’s pretty established,” said Gregoire.

Because of that, it serves as an “entry point” for many consumers interested in plant-based alternatives to animal products, he said.

Plant-based milk consumption is expected to continue growing in the coming years, according to Mintel research, with more options available than ever and more consumers opting for a diet that includes both dairy and non-dairy milk.

A 2023 report by Ernst & Young for Protein Industries Canada projected that the plant-based dairy market will reach US$51.3 billion in 2035, at a compound annual growth rate of 9.5 per cent.

Because of this growth opportunity, even well-established dairy or plant-based companies are stepping up their game.

It’s been more than three decades since Saint-Hyacinthe, Que.-based Natura first launched a line of soy beverages. Over the years, the company has rolled out new products to meet rising demand, and earlier this year launched a line of oat beverages that it says are the only ones with a stamp of approval from Celiac Canada.

Competition is tough, said owner and founder Nick Feldman — especially from large American brands, which have the money to ensure their products hit shelves across the country.

Natura has kept growing, though, with a focus on using organic ingredients and localized production from raw materials.

“We’re maybe not appealing to the mass market, but we’re appealing to the natural consumer, to the organic consumer,” Feldman said.

Amlani said brands are increasingly advertising the simplicity of their ingredient lists. She’s also noticing more companies offering different kinds of products, such as coffee creamers.

Companies are also looking to stand out through eye-catching packaging and marketing, added Amlani, and by competing on price.

Besides all the companies competing for shelf space, there are many different kinds of plant-based milk consumers can choose from, such as almond, soy, oat, rice, hazelnut, macadamia, pea, coconut and hemp.

However, one alternative in particular has enjoyed a recent, rapid ascendance in popularity.

“I would say oat is the big up-and-coming product,” said Feldman.

Mintel’s report found the share of Canadians who say they buy oat milk has quadrupled between 2019 and 2023 (though almond is still the most popular).

“There seems to be a very nice marriage of coffee and oat milk,” said Feldman. “The flavour combination is excellent, better than any other non-dairy alternative.”

The beverage’s surge in popularity in cafés is a big part of why it’s ascending so quickly, said Gregoire — its texture and ability to froth makes it a good alternative for lattes and cappuccinos.

It’s also a good example of companies making a strong “use case” for yet another new entrant in a competitive market, he said.

Amid the long-standing brands and new entrants, there’s another — perhaps unexpected — group of players that has been increasingly investing in plant-based milk alternatives: dairy companies.

For example, Danone has owned the Silk and So Delicious brands since an acquisition in 2014, and long-standing U.S. dairy company HP Hood LLC launched Planet Oat in 2018.

Lactalis Canada also recently converted its facility in Sudbury, Ont., to manufacture its new plant-based Enjoy! brand, with beverages made from oats, almonds and hazelnuts.

“As an organization, we obviously follow consumer trends, and have seen the amount of interest in plant-based products, particularly fluid beverages,” said Mark Taylor, president and CEO of Lactalis Canada, whose parent company Lactalis is the largest dairy products company in the world.

The facility was a milk processing plant for six decades, until Lactalis Canada began renovating it in 2022. It now manufactures not only the new brand, but also the company’s existing Sensational Soy brand, and is the company’s first dedicated plant-based facility.

“We’re predominantly a dairy company, and we’ll always predominantly be a dairy company, but we see these products as complementary,” said Taylor.

It makes sense that major dairy companies want to get in on plant-based milk, said Gregoire. The dairy business is large — a “cash cow,” if you will — but not really growing, while plant-based products are seeing a boom.

“If I’m looking for avenues of growth, I don’t want to be left behind,” he said.

Gregoire said there’s a potential for consumers to get confused with so many options, which is why it’s so important for brands to find a way to differentiate themselves, whether it’s with taste, health, or how well the drink froths for a latte.

Competition in a more crowded market is challenging, but Taylor believes it results in better products for consumers.

“It keeps you sharp, and it forces you to be really good at what you’re doing. It drives innovation,” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 15, 2024.



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