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The U.S. Economy May Be Facing Another Recession, New Research Suggests – Forbes

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The U.S. economy may be heading for another downturn within the next six months if sagging consumer expectations are any guide, according to new research from ex-Bank of England member David Blanchflower.

It’s a counterintuitive prediction given all the talk of recovery and inflation fears permeating the economic debate at the moment. U.S. gross domestic product soared an annualized 6.7% in the second quarter while consumer prices are running at 5.4% in the year to September.

But Blanchflower, now at Dartmouth College, and his co-author Alex Bryson, suggest the above figures are merely offering a look into the rear-view mirror.

“It seems to us that there is every likelihood that the United States entered recession at the end of 2021,” the authors write in a new research paper. “The most compelling evidence is from the Conference Board expectations data for the eight biggest states.”

They say a recent sharp decline in the jobless rate to below 5% has been driven by unusually supportive fiscal policy, masking other signs of weakness in the outlook. 

Those figures show drops comparable to those seen in 2007, just before the start of the Great Recession, which was the worst in generations. 

Blanchflower notes forecasters totally missed that downturn despite warning signs from housing and finance that something was awry.  

“By the Spring of 2007 qualitative data pointed to a recession coming in a few months and this was ignored,” he says.  “Today we report equivalent evidence for the U.S. showing comparable declines suggesting that the US is entering recession now, at the end of 2021.”

The call stands in sharp contrast to private sector forecasts and those of Federal Reserve officials, who see the U.S. economy expanding 5.9% this year and 3.8% next year. 

Against that backdrop, officials are planning to scale back their $120 billion in monthly bond purchases starting in November, and financial markets have started to price in the first interest rate hike as early as mid- to late-2022.

“The Fed appears to be headed for premature tightening,” said Blanchflower. “The Fed missed the Great Recession and the concern is they have missed the next one.”

Blanchflower and Bryson’s results hold over a long historical period, giving them additional confidence in the prognosis. 

“We show consumer expectations indices from both The Conference Board and the University of Michigan predict economic downturns up to 18 months in advance in the United States, both at national and at state-level,” they write.  

“All the recessions since the 1980s have been predicted by at least 10 and sometimes many more point drops in these indices.”

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Energy stocks help lift S&P/TSX composite, U.S. stock markets also up

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was higher in late-morning trading, helped by strength in energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also moved up.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 34.91 points at 23,736.98.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 178.05 points at 41,800.13. The S&P 500 index was up 28.38 points at 5,661.47, while the Nasdaq composite was up 133.17 points at 17,725.30.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.56 cents US compared with 73.57 cents US on Monday.

The November crude oil contract was up 68 cents at US$69.70 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up three cents at US$2.40 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$7.80 at US$2,601.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.28 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Canada’s inflation rate hits 2% target, reaches lowest level in more than three years

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OTTAWA – Canada’s inflation rate fell to two per cent last month, finally hitting the Bank of Canada’s target after a tumultuous battle with skyrocketing price growth.

The annual inflation rate fell from 2.5 per cent in July to reach the lowest level since February 2021.

Statistics Canada’s consumer price index report on Tuesday attributed the slowdown in part to lower gasoline prices.

Clothing and footwear prices also decreased on a month-over-month basis, marking the first decline in the month of August since 1971 as retailers offered larger discounts to entice shoppers amid slowing demand.

The Bank of Canada’s preferred core measures of inflation, which strip out volatility in prices, also edged down in August.

The marked slowdown in price growth last month was steeper than the 2.1 per cent annual increase forecasters were expecting ahead of Tuesday’s release and will likely spark speculation of a larger interest rate cut next month from the Bank of Canada.

“Inflation remains unthreatening and the Bank of Canada should now focus on trying to stimulate the economy and halting the upward climb in the unemployment rate,” wrote CIBC senior economist Andrew Grantham.

Benjamin Reitzes, managing director of Canadian rates and macro strategist at BMO, said Tuesday’s figures “tilt the scales” slightly in favour of more aggressive cuts, though he noted the Bank of Canada will have one more inflation reading before its October rate announcement.

“If we get another big downside surprise, calls for a 50 basis-point cut will only grow louder,” wrote Reitzes in a client note.

The central bank began rapidly hiking interest rates in March 2022 in response to runaway inflation, which peaked at a whopping 8.1 per cent that summer.

The central bank increased its key lending rate to five per cent and held it at that level until June 2024, when it delivered its first rate cut in four years.

A combination of recovered global supply chains and high interest rates have helped cool price growth in Canada and around the world.

Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem recently signalled that the central bank is ready to increase the size of its interest rate cuts, if inflation or the economy slow by more than expected.

Its key lending rate currently stands at 4.25 per cent.

CIBC is forecasting the central bank will cut its key rate by two percentage points between now and the middle of next year.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is also expected on Wednesday to deliver its first interest rate cut in four years.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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Federal money and sales taxes help pump up New Brunswick budget surplus

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FREDERICTON – New Brunswick‘s finance minister says the province recorded a surplus of $500.8 million for the fiscal year that ended in March.

Ernie Steeves says the amount — more than 10 times higher than the province’s original $40.3-million budget projection for the 2023-24 fiscal year — was largely the result of a strong economy and population growth.

The report of a big surplus comes as the province prepares for an election campaign, which will officially start on Thursday and end with a vote on Oct. 21.

Steeves says growth of the surplus was fed by revenue from the Harmonized Sales Tax and federal money, especially for health-care funding.

Progressive Conservative Premier Blaine Higgs has promised to reduce the HST by two percentage points to 13 per cent if the party is elected to govern next month.

Meanwhile, the province’s net debt, according to the audited consolidated financial statements, has dropped from $12.3 billion in 2022-23 to $11.8 billion in the most recent fiscal year.

Liberal critic René Legacy says having a stronger balance sheet does not eliminate issues in health care, housing and education.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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