The US Economy Came In Hot in January — But There Are Some Caveats - BNN Bloomberg | Canada News Media
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The US Economy Came In Hot in January — But There Are Some Caveats – BNN Bloomberg

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(Bloomberg) — The US was unseasonably hot in January, and it wasn’t just the weather.

Friday’s data are only the latest indication that the economy got off to a strong start in 2023, underscored by the biggest jump in consumer spending in nearly two years and a reacceleration in closely watched measures of inflation. Sales of new homes also surged, following figures last week that showed strong retail sales.

It’s all underpinned by an exuberant labor market, which shocked even more to the upside with January job growth that topped all estimates and the unemployment rate retreating to a 53-year low. That’s supporting incomes, boosting sentiment and giving Americans the wherewithal to keep spending, therefore keeping inflation elevated and pressuring the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.

The question is: How long can that strength last? The answer lies, at least in part, in to what degree that strength was a function of underlying momentum versus one-off factors.

Read more: ‘Too Good to Be True’ Jobs Report Draws Skeptics on Data Quirks

Here are some caveats to keep in mind:

  • Weather: January proved to be an unseasonably warm month. The temperate weather boosted demand for things like restaurants and also drove an increase in hours worked. That likely bolstered the wages and salaries metric as well as overall consumer spending in Friday’s report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
  • Shifting shopping patterns: Pandemic-driven supply-chain challenges led to widespread shortages and shipping delays. As a result, many Americans shifted their holiday shopping earlier, a trend that likely contributed to the back-to-back declines in consumer spending and retail sales in the final two months of the year. Gift cards are counted in the spending figures when they’re used, not purchased, which could have boosted January’s figures.
  • Annual cost-of-living-adjustment: Known as the COLA, the annual cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security and Supplemental Security Income boosted incomes in January by the most in four decades. The 8.7% increase in benefits impacted about 70 million Americans.
  • Tax accounting: Friday’s data showed a large decline in personal taxes, providing a lift to disposable personal income. That likely also helped boost the savings rate in the month. Wells Fargo & Co. economists noted the “decline somewhat reflects BEA accounting rather than the true household experience.” Revisions to real disposable income could be coming down the pipeline as a result.
  • In the other direction, a decline in one-time payments issued by states to help offset rising prices and the end of the extended child-tax credit weighed on the overall income figures, offsetting the surge in Social Security incomes.

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

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Economy

Statistics Canada reports wholesale sales higher in July

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.

The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.

The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.

The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.

In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.

Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

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B.C.’s debt and deficit forecast to rise as the provincial election nears

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VICTORIA – British Columbia is forecasting a record budget deficit and a rising debt of almost $129 billion less than two weeks before the start of a provincial election campaign where economic stability and future progress are expected to be major issues.

Finance Minister Katrine Conroy, who has announced her retirement and will not seek re-election in the Oct. 19 vote, said Tuesday her final budget update as minister predicts a deficit of $8.9 billion, up $1.1 billion from a forecast she made earlier this year.

Conroy said she acknowledges “challenges” facing B.C., including three consecutive deficit budgets, but expected improved economic growth where the province will start to “turn a corner.”

The $8.9 billion deficit forecast for 2024-2025 is followed by annual deficit projections of $6.7 billion and $6.1 billion in 2026-2027, Conroy said at a news conference outlining the government’s first quarterly financial update.

Conroy said lower corporate income tax and natural resource revenues and the increased cost of fighting wildfires have had some of the largest impacts on the budget.

“I want to acknowledge the economic uncertainties,” she said. “While global inflation is showing signs of easing and we’ve seen cuts to the Bank of Canada interest rates, we know that the challenges are not over.”

Conroy said wildfire response costs are expected to total $886 million this year, more than $650 million higher than originally forecast.

Corporate income tax revenue is forecast to be $638 million lower as a result of federal government updates and natural resource revenues are down $299 million due to lower prices for natural gas, lumber and electricity, she said.

Debt-servicing costs are also forecast to be $344 million higher due to the larger debt balance, the current interest rate and accelerated borrowing to ensure services and capital projects are maintained through the province’s election period, said Conroy.

B.C.’s economic growth is expected to strengthen over the next three years, but the timing of a return to a balanced budget will fall to another minister, said Conroy, who was addressing what likely would be her last news conference as Minister of Finance.

The election is expected to be called on Sept. 21, with the vote set for Oct. 19.

“While we are a strong province, people are facing challenges,” she said. “We have never shied away from taking those challenges head on, because we want to keep British Columbians secure and help them build good lives now and for the long term. With the investments we’re making and the actions we’re taking to support people and build a stronger economy, we’ve started to turn a corner.”

Premier David Eby said before the fiscal forecast was released Tuesday that the New Democrat government remains committed to providing services and supports for people in British Columbia and cuts are not on his agenda.

Eby said people have been hurt by high interest costs and the province is facing budget pressures connected to low resource prices, high wildfire costs and struggling global economies.

The premier said that now is not the time to reduce supports and services for people.

Last month’s year-end report for the 2023-2024 budget saw the province post a budget deficit of $5.035 billion, down from the previous forecast of $5.9 billion.

Eby said he expects government financial priorities to become a major issue during the upcoming election, with the NDP pledging to continue to fund services and the B.C. Conservatives looking to make cuts.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

Note to readers: This is a corrected story. A previous version said the debt would be going up to more than $129 billion. In fact, it will be almost $129 billion.

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Mark Carney mum on carbon-tax advice, future in politics at Liberal retreat

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NANAIMO, B.C. – Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says he’ll be advising the Liberal party to flip some the challenges posed by an increasingly divided and dangerous world into an economic opportunity for Canada.

But he won’t say what his specific advice will be on economic issues that are politically divisive in Canada, like the carbon tax.

He presented his vision for the Liberals’ economic policy at the party’s caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C. today, after he agreed to help the party prepare for the next election as chair of a Liberal task force on economic growth.

Carney has been touted as a possible leadership contender to replace Justin Trudeau, who has said he has tried to coax Carney into politics for years.

Carney says if the prime minister asks him to do something he will do it to the best of his ability, but won’t elaborate on whether the new adviser role could lead to him adding his name to a ballot in the next election.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says she has been taking advice from Carney for years, and that his new position won’t infringe on her role.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

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