The US economy probably grew at record speed in the third quarter. But the crisis isn't over - CNN | Canada News Media
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The US economy probably grew at record speed in the third quarter. But the crisis isn't over – CNN

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Just five days before the presidential election, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will report US gross domestic product — the broadest measure of economic activity.
Economists polled by Refinitiv expect the economy expanded about 7%, when adjusted for seasonal particularities, between July and September compared to the prior three months. That would be a sharp gain from the second quarter, when the economy shrunk a seasonally-adjusted 9%.
The government typically measures quarterly GDP gains and losses on an annualized basis, which assumes the quarterly growth rate continues for a whole year. In normal times, this approach makes it easier to compare economic performance over time. But during a fast-moving crisis like the coronavirus pandemic, it makes things a little more confusing.
On an annualized and seasonally-adjusted basis, economists expect a 31% jump in the third quarter. That would be the biggest gain since the government began tracking quarterly GDP numbers in 1947. And it comes after huge losses in the second quarter, when GDP collapsed at an annualized and seasonally-adjusted rate of 31.4% — the biggest drop on record.
The partial rebound is a sign of improvement, but economists warn, it’s not as impressive as it may sound.
“The enormous contraction of GDP in the second quarter means any growth in the third quarter is coming off of a significantly smaller base of GDP,” said Josh Bivens, director of research at the Economic Policy Institute.
So the jump we will see in Thursday’s data doesn’t mean the economy is out of the woods yet — not even close. If the forecasts are right, economic activity would be about $747 billion per year below its prior peak — meaning, the recovery is far from complete.

Measuring the rebound

The US economy fell into a recession in the first half of the year.
The National Bureau of Economic Research defines a recession as a period between the peak of economic activity and the nadir. At this point, we can’t be sure that we’re out of a recession just yet. Early signs point to a slowdown in economic activity this quarter, and as Covid-19 cases spike again across America, a second lockdown — and deeper recession — are not outside the realm of possibility.
If the recession is indeed already over, the pandemic downturn would have been much shorter than the average recession, which lasted about 12 months in the post-World War II period. But this one was much deeper, said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Financial Group.
Either way, the economic crisis is not over, even if Thursday’s data shows a jump in economic activity.
“The huge GDP growth it will indicate is growth off a level severely depressed by a first-ever lockdown of much of the US economy. The measure itself is meaningless,” said Daniel Alpert, senior fellow and adjunct professor of macroeconomics at Cornell Law School.
The economy is still in a far worse state than at the start of the year. Millions of people remain unemployed and rely on government benefits to make ends meet. Employers have added back only about half of the 22 million jobs lost in March and April.
“In the real world, GDP is a pretty abstract concept. Jobs and paychecks are not,” Bivens said.
Last month, an unexpectedly high number of women dropped out of the work force. Experts think that’s due to childcare responsibilities as schools are still not fully back up and running because of the pandemic.
Industries like travel and hospitality continue to struggle as people stay home more and Covid restrictions prevent business as usual. On top of all that, the virus is still spreading.
Economists are growing concerned whether the rebound will keep going in the final three months of the year, given Congress has been unable to agree on another stimulus package to get the economy back on track.

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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