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The world economy, from ancient Babylon to tech entrepreneurs – The Economist

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“More”, by The Economist’s Bartleby columnist, is an entertaining chronicle of ten millennia of economic history

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More: The 10,000-Year Rise of the World Economy. By Philip Coggan. Profile Books; 480 pages; £25. To be published in America by Hachette in March as “More: A History of the World Economy from the Iron Age to the Information Age”; $30

ECONOMIC HISTORIES rarely make for a cheering read. Different eras tend to be punctuated by crises, from the South Sea bubble to tulipmania to the oil shocks of the 1970s to the global financial crisis of 2007-09. Even the more obviously good news events involve a certain ambivalence. The dark satanic mills of the Industrial Revolution provided fuel for both Charles Dickens in “Hard Times” and Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels in “The Communist Manifesto”.

It is a real pleasure, then, to read a history that naturally includes the crises but sets them in the context of the immense economic advances over the past ten millennia. “More” opens with the ancient economy and the code of Hammurabi, which set out the rules for fair commercial dealings, legal liability, property rights (including for some women) and a minimum wage. It closes with pitches by young wannabe entrepreneurs at an event in London, many of them concerned with tackling social problems such as reducing carbon emissions or diagnosing and monitoring medical conditions.

The book falls into roughly three parts: the pre-modern economy up to the early 19th century, the epoch from the Industrial Revolution up to the turning point of 1979 and the modern era of globalisation and its discontents. Several key lenses are turned on the narrative at various points, notably the role of energy, trade and transport, plus the role of government and innovation. This is, needless to say, a vast canvas. Yet Philip Coggan, The Economist’s Bartleby columnist, tells the story with both narrative verve and acute observation.

Take, for example, a chapter on transport networks, a subject that rarely sets the pulse racing. It starts with an image of the main hall of Grand Central Station in New York—familiar to most readers from photographs if not from personal experience—and recounts the fact that in 1961 its owners petitioned to lower the hall’s ceiling to make room for three tiers of bowling alleys overhead. The chapter then plunges the reader into the station’s control room, directing trains on scores of tracks, and the global supply chain that makes trains, signals, lighting and more.

The message that unfolds over the next few pages is the complexity of the modern transport network, and more broadly the evolving role of this vital circulatory system of the world economy. Innovations in transport shape the economy and society. The railways gave mankind synchronised time. The internal combustion engine shaped cities and the built environment. The standardised shipping container made global trade on the modern scale possible.

By the end of the book, “More” has given the reader a vivid sense of the extraordinary achievements of the interwoven modern world economy, with numerous lively anecdotes. It is quite an accomplishment to find the right length to tell a 10,000-year story while including so much relevant detail. Yet, although it ends on an upbeat note, the post-crisis conditions and the political backlash also underline the fragility of the economy—not to mention its environmental cost. You turn the final page wondering if the tale of the next 10,000 years will be an optimistic one.

DIANE COYLE*

*Our policy is to identify the reviewer of any book by or about someone closely connected with The Economist. Diane Coyle is the Bennett Professor of Public Policy at Cambridge University

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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