The Wuhan virus is the last thing China's economy needs right now - CNN | Canada News Media
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The Wuhan virus is the last thing China's economy needs right now – CNN

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The Wuhan coronavirus — which has killed 17 people and infected nearly 600 so far — has already roiled Chinese markets and thrown plans for the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday into chaos for millions of people.
If Beijing fails to contain the disease quickly, it will cause more pain for a country that was already trying to stave off a serious downturn by trying to encourage more consumer spending. An epidemic could have the opposite effect.
“If you’re trying to rebalance the Chinese economy, this is one of the last events you want to see,” said Logan Wright, director of China markets research at Rhodium Group.
The world’s second biggest economy grew at its slowest pace in nearly three decades last year as it contended with rising debt, cooling domestic demand and US tariffs, many of which remain in place despite a recent truce. Beijing is worried about unemployment, too, and has announced a wave of stimulus measures in recent weeks aimed at preventing mass layoffs.
Most of the tariffs Washington imposed on billions of dollars worth of Chinese goods haven’t gone away, said ING economist Robert Carnell, adding that Beijing has already nudged “every policy lever that could be nudged” to try to offset the effects of the trade dispute.
The Chinese economy is just “managing” right now, he said.
Wright called the timing of the outbreak “especially unfortunate” given the Lunar New Year holiday. The period is the largest annual human migration on Earth, during which hundreds of millions of Chinese travelers usually cram themselves into homebound trains, buses and planes for family reunions.
The spread of the virus prompted Chinese officials to take the largely unprecedented step of partially locking down Wuhan, a city of 11 million people in central China where the virus originated. Airline regulators have also instructed Chinese carriers to offer free cancellations on flights into Wuhan, while state media has reported that China’s rail authorities are taking similar steps.

A SARS-like scenario

China has a good sense of the economic trouble that could lie ahead.
The 2003 SARS outbreak, which sickened 8,098 and killed 774 people in 37 different countries, cost the world economy $40 billion, according to a study from the National Institutes of Health. The economies of China and Hong Kong bore the brunt of that burden, the authors said.
Like SARS, the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak could spark widespread fear and spur people to hunker down and avoid going outside. That kind of behavior would deal a huge blow to the service sector, which now accounts for about 52% of the Chinese economy.
“As soon as you’re worried, you’re worried,” Carnell said. “You stay home, if you can. You don’t go out to the local food court, you try not to travel on public transport, you try to work from home, you don’t travel for pleasure. You don’t get on a plane, you don’t go to the movie theater, restaurants or conferences.”
The SARS outbreak forced the cancellation of the week-long May Day holiday in China, forced the postponement or abandonment of sporting, business and cultural events and turned Beijing into a virtual ghost town.
Investors are already worried about what the Wuhan virus could mean for China’s growing travel industry. Shares of the country’s three major airlines — Air China, China Southern and China Eastern — all closed down 2.5% or more in Shanghai and Hong Kong on Thursday. And the aviation sector is “likely to remain under pressure as confirmed cases are set to increase,” said Andrew Lee, equity analyst at Jefferies.
SARS also had a wider impact on the economy. China’s annual growth rate slumped to 9.1% in the second quarter of 2003, down from 11.1% in the first quarter of that year, according to brokerage firm Macquarie Group.
This time around, the hit to China’s GDP could be even worse, because the sectors most directly affected now make up a bigger part of the economy, Commerzbank analyst Hao Zhou and economist Marco Wagner wrote in a research note on Wednesday. For example, tourism accounts for about 5% of China’s GDP today, compared to 2% in 2003.
“If history is a guide, there is clearly a risk that the already struggling China’s consumption would face further headwinds if the (Wuhan) virus can’t be effectively controlled,” Hao and Wagner wrote.

Limiting the economic blow

But China is stepping up efforts to contain the virus, including the partial lockdown of Wuhan, and some lessons have been learned since 2003, when the authorities were slow to release information and initially downplayed the severity of the SARS outbreak.
“Rumors and bad information were drowning out good information at that time, and people were especially careful as a result,” said Wright, adding that he expected the economic impact of the Wuhan virus won’t be as severe as during the SARS crisis.
And as scary as the 2003 outbreak was, experts say the impact on China’s economy was short-lived.
Once SARS faded away, China’s growth rebounded quickly and climbed to 10% in the third quarter of 2003, according to Commerzbank’s Hao and Wagner.
Some remain skeptical about how forthcoming Beijing is being about the outbreak. A senior US State Department official, for example, said Wednesday that the United States is concerned about transparency inside the Chinese government about the Wuhan coronovirus. But the official added that Washington has seen encouraging signs that Beijing understands the gravity of the problem.

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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