Exercising their ballot: People turn up to cast their vote during advance voting ahead of the March 24 general election at Matthayom Ban Bang Kapi School in Bang Kapi district.
Long-awaited poll
1. After being put off six times when it was first promised by junta leader Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, the much awaited general election was finally held on March 24 under a complex new electoral system with 500 seats up for grabs.
The poll was held under a new rule in which a single ballot was used and votes cast for constituency candidates were used to calculate party-list seats to be distributed among qualified parties.
Under the new regulation, if the number of constituency seats won by a party exceeded the estimated share of overall House seats allowed, it would not get party-list seats.
The election rules put forth by the Constitution Drafting Committee under an organic law on the election of MPs were heavily criticised and did exactly what political observers said they would — favour medium-sized and small parties.
It turned out that 27 political parties won, with 13 micro parties receiving one party-list seat each.
While the lead opposition Pheu Thai Party managed to capture the lion’s share of seats — 136 in total — political observers said it was far fewer than the 200 House seats it was expected to win.
The Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP), which nominated Gen Prayut as its prime ministerial candidate, did better than expected, winning 117 seats from the constituency and party-list systems.
The party was expected to capture only around 60 to 80 seats.
New alliance: Key members of parties meet Palang Pracharath Party heavyweights to confirm they will form part of the coalition government in early June.
The poll served up some surprises, with the Future Forward Party springing the biggest shock by grabbing 81 seats mostly from the party-list system. This new outfit was expected to win no more than 30 to 40 seats.
The Democrat Party was the biggest loser. It was expected to retain 100 seats, yet it captured no more than 53, none of which were in Bangkok, its political stronghold. Abhisit Vejjajiva stepped down as party leader after the shocking defeat.
A few days after the poll, the Pheu Thai announced it was joining up with allies to form a coalition government with a total of 255 seats — a move that proved to be premature.
A coalition of 19 parties
2.A hundred and eight days after the general election, PPRP eventually formed a razor-thin coalition government with 254 seats and 19 political parties under its wing.
The PPRP faced some tough demands from its potential partners, including the 11 small parties that were the first to back the PPRP-led alliance. The Democrat and Bhumjaithai parties teamed up as a “political duo” to use their combined 103 MPs in a move to increase their bargaining power for coveted cabinet seats.
The Democrat Party drove a hard bargain by putting forward its patriarch, veteran politician Chuan Leekpai, for the House Speaker’s post — a seat usually held by a core coalition party.
Backed by PPRP deputy leader and list-MP Nataphol Teepsuwan, Mr Chuan defeated Pheu Thai’s Sompong Amornwiwat in a 258-235 vote, with one abstention. To political observers, this move signalled the deal to form a PPRP-led coalition had been sealed.
After the appointment of the chief of the legislative branch came the prime ministerial vote, which was a contest between PPRP’s Gen Prayut and Future Forward Party (FFP) leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit.
However, Gen Prayut was a shoo-in with the support of 250 appointed senators, winning 500 votes in the joint House-Senate voting session. Mr Thanathorn only got 244 votes with Mr Chuan, Senate Speaker Pornpetch Wichitcholachai, and Bhumjaithai MP for Si Sa Ket Siripong Angkasakulkiat abstaining.
Mr Siripong claimed he abstained because he wanted to keep his campaign promise that he would back party leader Anutin Charnvirakul for the post.
Ahead of the vote, Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva stepped down as party list-MP.
Clearly he couldn’t bring himself to vote for Gen Prayut to remain as PM after failing to talk his party out of joining the PPRP-led alliance and working instead as an independent opposition party.
Army chief’s ‘talk show’
3.It is not often that people witness the spectacle of an army chief wielding a microphone on stage to lash out at political characters accused of undermining national security.
Airing views: Army chief Apirat Kongsompong takes to the podium to speak on threats to national security on Oct 11.
On Oct 11, Army commander-in-chief Apirat Kongsompong held the audience rapt when he addressed a lecture attended by some 500 people from public and state sectors.
The subject of the lecture was loosely translated as “Our Land in the Contest of National Security”.
For about an hour, Gen Apirat analysed the state of police and took aim at certain politicians in the so-called “pro-democracy” camp.
The hawkish army chief spoke at length of a new national threat that has manifested in the form of “hybrid warfare”, which apparently combines both conventional and non-conventional warfare strategies.
Non-conventional war tactics involves the employment of an irregular force such as the radicals who were behind random bombings in Bangkok over the past few years.
The conventional strategy, meanwhile, pertains to the alleged propaganda devised by an older generation of people, most in their early 70s, who cling to communism and anti-monarchist ideals.
Gen Apirat insisted this threat was masterminded by foreign-educated elements and academics to drive propagandist campaigns and fake news through social media to further their cause and win support from people, especially the young.
The army commander also lambasted an academic for suggesting that the charter’s Section 1, which stipulates that Thailand is one indivisible kingdom, be amended.
The suggestion was made at a public discussion on changes to the constitution in Pattani on Oct 4, with some opposition leaders attending.
Thanathorn ejected
4. FFP leader Thanathorn was stripped of his MP status by the Constitutional Court on Nov 20 in relation to his controversial shareholding in a media organisation.
However, this may not be the end of his predicament.
Thrown out: Future Forward Party leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit bows as he is asked to leave the first parliament meeting at the TOT auditorium on May 25 due to the Constitutional Court’s suspension of his MP status. The court order stemmed from a media shareholding case against him.
Mr Thanathorn had been dogged by the V-Luck media shareholding saga soon after he was first suspended as MP by the Constitutional Court.
The election law prohibits MP candidates from owning shares in media companies, and Mr Thanathorn reportedly held 675,000 shares in V-Luck Media Co when the FFP submitted the names of its party-list MP candidates to the Election Commission on Feb 6.
EC secretary-general Pol Col Jarungvith Phumma said Mr Thanathorn now stands accused of violating Section 151 of the law on the election of MPs.
The section stipulates that those who apply for MP status despite knowing full well that they do not meet qualification requirements can face a jail term of up to 10 years, a fine of between 20,000 and 200,000 baht, and also may have their voting rights suspended for 20 years.
Pol Col Jarungvith said an inquiry committee investigating the case is expected to include the court’s ruling in its consideration because the ruling states says Mr Thanathorn was not qualified to apply as an election candidate.
While considering the case, the Constitutional Court refused to look at any documents, including those showing the shares had been transferred, which were supplied by Mr Thanathorn in his defence.
The court reasoned that the documents were issued by V-Luck Media and none of them were official documents recorded by the Business Development Department to prove the share transfer.
Mr Thanathorn, dubbed as the brightest rising star of politics, claimed the EC rushed the media shareholding case before the EC sub-committee finished its probe.
He then filed a lawsuit against all seven election commissioners at the Criminal Court for Corruption and Misconduct Cases, only to see it being thrown out with the court saying the commissioners had full authority to forward the share-holding case to the Constitutional Court.
Party’s early death
5.In March, the country was kept in suspense over the Constitutional Court’s ruling on the fate of the Thai Raksa Chart Party, which found itself mired in problems for nominating Princess Ubolratana as its prime ministerial candidate.
The moment of truth came on March 7, when the court voted unanimously to dissolve the party. Thai Raksa Chart was believed to have close ties with Pheu Thai Party, which was thought to be under former PM Thaksin Shinawatra’s wing.
The court also voted 6:3 to ban Thai Raksa Chart’s 14 executives from politics for 10 years.
The party execs are also banned from setting up parties or becoming executives of other parties for 10 years.
Final verdict: Executives of the Thai Raksa Chart Party arrive at the Constitutional Court which dissolved the party in March.
Thai Raksa Chart has suffered the same fate as Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai Party, which was dissolved in 2007 by a constitutional tribunal for violating an electoral law.
Its 111 executives subsequently had their political rights revoked for five years.
The People Power Party, said to be Thai Rak Thai’s reincarnation, was also disbanded by the Constitutional Court, and its 37 executive banned for five years.
On Feb 14, the Constitutional Court accepted a petition from the EC in relation to Thai Raksa Chart’s nomination of Princess Ubolratana as a prime ministerial candidate.
His Majesty the King then commanded that members of the royal family are above politics and cannot hold political positions.
In its defence, Thai Raksa Chart said it had received the princess’s consent and that there were no laws barring her from becoming a prime minister as she has relinquished all her royal titles.
FREDERICTON – New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs has called an election for Oct. 21, signalling the beginning of a 33-day campaign expected to focus on pocketbook issues and the government’s provocative approach to gender identity policies.
The 70-year-old Progressive Conservative leader, who is seeking a third term in office, has attracted national attention by requiring teachers to get parental consent before they can use the preferred names and pronouns of young students.
More recently, however, the former Irving Oil executive has tried to win over inflation-weary voters by promising to lower the provincial harmonized sales tax by two percentage points to 13 per cent if re-elected.
At dissolution, the Conservatives held 25 seats in the 49-seat legislature. The Liberals held 16 seats, the Greens had three and there was one Independent and four vacancies.
J.P. Lewis, a political science professor at the University of New Brunswick, said the top three issues facing New Brunswickers are affordability, health care and education.
“Across many jurisdictions, affordability is the top concern — cost of living, housing prices, things like that,” he said.
Richard Saillant, an economist and former vice-president of Université de Moncton, said the Tories’ pledge to lower the HST represents a costly promise.
“I don’t think there’s that much room for that,” he said. “I’m not entirely clear that they can do so without producing a greater deficit.” Saillant also pointed to mounting pressures to invest more in health care, education and housing, all of which are facing increasing demands from a growing population.
Higgs’s main rivals are Liberal Leader Susan Holt and Green Party Leader David Coon. Both are focusing on economic and social issues.
Holt has promised to impose a rent cap and roll out a subsidized school food program. The Liberals also want to open at least 30 community health clinics over the next four years.
Coon has said a Green government would create an “electricity support program,” which would give families earning less than $70,000 annually about $25 per month to offset “unprecedented” rate increases.
Higgs first came to power in 2018, when the Tories formed the province’s first minority government in 100 years. In 2020, he called a snap election — the first province to go to the polls after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic — and won a majority.
Since then, several well-known cabinet ministers and caucus members have stepped down after clashing with Higgs, some of them citing what they described as an authoritarian leadership style and a focus on policies that represent a hard shift to the right side of the political spectrum.
Lewis said the Progressive Conservatives are in the “midst of reinvention.”
“It appears he’s shaping the party now, really in the mould of his world views,” Lewis said. “Even though (Progressive Conservatives) have been down in the polls, I still think that they’re very competitive.”
Meanwhile, the legislature remained divided along linguistic lines. The Tories dominate in English-speaking ridings in central and southern parts of the province, while the Liberals held most French-speaking ridings in the north.
The drama within the party began in October 2022 when the province’s outspoken education minister, Dominic Cardy, resigned from cabinet, saying he could no longer tolerate the premier’s leadership style. In his resignation letter, Cardy cited controversial plans to reform French-language education. The government eventually stepped back those plans.
A series of resignations followed last year when the Higgs government announced changes to Policy 713, which now requires students under 16 who are exploring their gender identity to get their parents’ consent before teachers can use their preferred first names or pronouns — a reversal of the previous practice.
When several Tory lawmakers voted with the opposition to call for an external review of the change, Higgs dropped dissenters from his cabinet. And a bid by some party members to trigger a leadership review went nowhere.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
FREDERICTON – A 33-day provincial election campaign is expected to officially get started today in New Brunswick.
Progressive Conservative Premier Blaine Higgs has said he plans to visit Lt.-Gov. Brenda Murphy this morning to have the legislature dissolved.
Higgs, a 70-year-old former oil executive, is seeking a third term in office, having led the province since 2018.
The campaign ahead of the Oct. 21 vote is expected to focus on pocketbook issues, but the government’s provocative approach to gender identity issues could also be in the spotlight.
The Tory premier has already announced he will try to win over inflation-weary voters by promising to lower the harmonized sales tax by two percentage points to 13 per cent if re-elected.
Higgs’s main rivals are Liberal Leader Susan Holt and Green Party Leader David Coon, both of whom are focusing on economic and social issues.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
VICTORIA – If the lead up to British Columbia‘s provincial election campaign is any indication of what’s to come, voters should expect the unexpected.
It could be a wild ride to voting day on Oct. 19.
The Conservative Party of B.C. that didn’t elect a single member in the last election and gained less than two per cent of the popular vote is now leading the charge for centre-right, anti-NDP voters.
The official Opposition BC United, who as the former B.C. Liberals won four consecutive majorities from 2001 to 2013, raised a white flag and suspended its campaign last month, asking its members, incumbents and voters to support the B.C. Conservatives to prevent a vote split on the political right.
New Democrat Leader David Eby delivered a few political surprises of his own in the days leading up to Saturday’s official campaign start, signalling major shifts on the carbon tax and the issue of involuntary care in an attempt to curb the deadly opioid overdose crisis.
He said the NDP would drop the province’s long-standing carbon tax for consumers if the federal government eliminates its requirement to keep the levy in place, and pledged to introduce involuntary care of people battling mental health and addiction issues.
The B.C. Coroners Service reports more than 15,000 overdose deaths since the province declared an opioid overdose public health emergency in 2016.
Drug policy in B.C., especially decriminalization of possession of small amounts of hard drugs and drug use in public areas, could become key election issues this fall.
Eby, a former executive director of the B.C. Civil Liberties Association, said Wednesday that criticism of the NDP’s involuntary care plan by the Canadian Civil Liberties Association is “misinformed” and “misleading.”
“This isn’t about forcing people into a particular treatment,” he said at an unrelated news conference. “This is about making sure that their safety, as well as the safety of the broader community, is looked after.”
Eby said “simplistic arguments,” where one side says lock people up and the other says don’t lock anybody up don’t make sense.
“There are some people who should be in jail, who belong in jail to ensure community safety,” said Eby. “There are some people who need to be in intensive, secure mental health treatment facilities because that’s what they need in order to be safe, in order not to be exploited, in order not to be dead.”
The CCLA said in a statement Eby’s plan is not acceptable.
“There is no doubt that substance use is an alarming and pressing epidemic,” said Anais Bussières McNicoll, the association’s fundamental freedoms program director. “This scourge is causing significant suffering, particularly, among vulnerable and marginalized groups. That being said, detaining people without even assessing their capacity to make treatment decisions, and forcing them to undergo treatment against their will, is unconstitutional.”
While Eby, a noted human rights lawyer, could face political pressure from civil rights opponents to his involuntary care plans, his opponents on the right also face difficulties.
The BC United Party suspended its campaign last month in a pre-election move to prevent a vote split on the right, but that support may splinter as former jilted United members run as Independents.
Five incumbent BC United MLAs, Mike Bernier, Dan Davies, Tom Shypitka, Karin Kirkpatrick and Coralee Oakes are running as Independents and could become power brokers in the event of a minority government situation, while former BC United incumbents Ian Paton, Peter Milobar and Trevor Halford are running under the B.C. Conservative banner.
Davies, who represents the Fort St. John area riding of Peace River North, said he’s always been a Conservative-leaning politician but he has deep community roots and was urged by his supporters to run as an Independent after the Conservatives nominated their own candidate.
Davies said he may be open to talking with B.C. Conservative Leader John Rustad after the election, if he wins or loses.
Green Leader Sonia Furstenau has suggested her party is an option for alienated BC United voters.
Rustad — who faced criticism from BC United Leader Kevin Falcon and Eby about the far-right and extremist views of some of his current and former candidates and advisers — said the party’s rise over the past months has been meteoric.
“It’s been almost 100 years since the Conservative Party in B.C. has won a government,” he said. “The last time was 1927. I look at this now and I think I have never seen this happen anywhere in the country before. This has been happening in just over a year. It just speaks volumes that people are just that eager and interested in change.”
Rustad, ejected from the former B.C. Liberals in August 2022 for publicly supporting a climate change skeptic, sat briefly as an Independent before being acclaimed the B.C. Conservative leader in March 2023.
Rustad, who said if elected he will fire B.C.’s provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry over her vaccine mandates during the COVID-19 pandemic, has removed the nominations of some of his candidates who were vaccine opponents.
“I am not interested in going after votes and trying to do things that I think might be popular,” he said.
Prof. David Black, a political communications specialist at Greater Victoria’s Royal Roads University, said the rise of Rustad’s Conservatives and the collapse of BC United is the political story of the year in B.C.
But it’s still too early to gauge the strength of the Conservative wave, he said.
“Many questions remain,” said Black. “Has the free enterprise coalition shifted sufficiently far enough to the right to find the social conservatism and culture-war populism of some parts of the B.C. Conservative platform agreeable? Is a party that had no infrastructure and minimal presence in what are now 93 ridings this election able to scale up and run a professional campaign across the province?”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
