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There are things not even the Bank of Canada can fix – Financial Post

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The economic stimulus debate got real in a hurry.

Statistics Canada on Feb. 28 reported that economic growth slowed to an annual rate of 0.3 per cent in the fourth quarter — stall speed — as the trade wars choked exports and business investment.

That wouldn’t be such a worry if, by Canadian standards, all hell hadn’t broken loose since the end of last year.

Marc Garneau, federal transportation minister, this week said that if you lined up the freight cars idled by the various rail blockades this month, they would stretch from Ottawa to Montreal. Teck Resources Ltd. alluded to the Wet’suwet’en protesters and their sympathizers when it pulled its application to build an oilsands mine in northeastern Alberta. “It does kind of send a message to the outside people that Canada’s probably not the best place to invest,” Don Walker, chief executive of auto-parts maker Magna International Inc., told reporters in Toronto this week.

But, frankly, these developments are sideshows compared with the panic in global financial markets over COVID-19, which is on the verge of becoming a pandemic. Wall Street stock prices lost more than 15 per cent since touching a record a week ago, and the Canadian dollar lost more than two per cent of its value, dropping to about 74 U.S. cents, its lowest level since June.

Central bankers could probably look past the protests. It’s better that goods pile up due to confrontational politics than lack of demand. In that way, the economic impact of the First Nations blockades is no different than backlogs caused by weather and strikes: it’s lost output, but it’s temporary.

Teck’s decision is emblematic of deeper issues, one of which is the very real prospect that global oil prices have plateaued at levels that make digging for more bitumen an unprofitable proposition. Lower interest rates can’t do anything about such structural changes. StatsCan on Feb. 27 released a report that showed companies planned to increase capital spending by about three per cent in 2020, an uninspiring result, but one that was pulled down by oil and gas companies.  Remove that industry, and investment intentions were at a record high, according to Marc Pinsonneault, an economist at National Bank.

COVID-19 is something else entirely.

The global economy grew last year at its slowest pace since the financial crisis, and mass closures of factories, shops and airplane routes to limit the virus’s spread are dashing hopes of a rebound in 2020. Kevin Warsh, a former governor at the U.S. Federal Reserve, wrote in the Wall Street Journal on Feb. 26 that the Fed should lead a coordinated stimulus effort by the world’s major central banks. “The window to contain the virus inside China has long since closed,” he said. “The window to mitigate its effects on the global economy remains open — but not for long.”

Yet the Bank of Korea left its benchmark rate unchanged at a meeting this week, and Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, told the Financial Times that there isn’t enough evidence yet to say that the virus represents a long-lasting shock. Timothy Lane, a deputy governor at the Bank of Canada, had a similar assessment. “I would say at this point we don’t know enough about the transmission, we don’t know enough, even given the transmission, about how economic behaviour is going to be affected,” he said on Feb. 25.

Lane and his counterparts on the central bank’s Governing Council are scheduled to release a new statement on interest rates on March 4. Seven of the 10 academics and Bay Street economists on the C.D. Howe Institute’s shadow policy committee on Feb. 27 said the Bank of Canada should drop the overnight rate a quarter point to 1.5 per cent next week, the first time a majority of that group has recommended a cut since 2009. The “principal focus” of the group was the need to get ahead of the virus, the institute said in a statement.

The price of assets linked to short-term interest rates has dramatically shifted and now implies that investors anticipate an interest-rate cut next week, said Simon Harvey, an analyst at Monex Europe Ltd. “Next week’s meeting is too pre-emptive in our view, but that suddenly runs against the market consensus,” he said in an email.

It would be odd if the Bank of Canada showed more concern about the economic impact of the virus than its counterparts in South Korea and Europe, two places where COVID-19 has caused observable harm. Then again, events were evolving with unusual speed. At 2.30 p.m. on Feb. 28, the Fed chair, Jerome Powell, issued a statement to say that the Fed “was closely monitoring” the situation and that “we will use our tools and act as appropriate to support the economy.”

If Powell’s intervention fails to calm markets, the Bank of Canada could feel compelled to act. Canada’s central bank is capable of surprises: for example, it cut interest rates in January 2015 when no one was expecting it.

Coincidentally, Lane was the last policy-maker to speak before that decision, just as he was the choice to utter the central bank’s final words before entering its customary blackout period ahead of next week’s announcement.

Back in 2015, Lane might have let a clue slip into his remarks by stating that “we see important risks to Canada’s economic outlook stemming from the recent decline in the price of oil and other commodities.” This week, he said nothing about the economy in a speech on digital currencies. In an interview, he said he agreed that the rail blockades and COVID-19 were negatives, but added “we’ve also had economic data coming in which has been not too much out of line with what we had been predicting.”

The Bank of Canada’s updated forecast in January predicted the economy had slowed to 0.3 per cent in the fourth quarter.

However, the expected rebound to growth of 1.3 per cent in the first quarter probably isn’t going to happen. The headwind from the blockades will go away, but the economic effects of the virus could get worse. They might not worsen enough in a few days to justify an interest-rate cut immediately. But if central banks as a group decide that stimulus is necessary, the Bank of Canada will be among them.

• Email: kcarmichael@nationalpost.com | Twitter:

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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