A study by researchers from the University of Nottingham in England suggests that there could be about 36 other intelligent civilizations spread throughout the Milky Way galaxy, but there are two big obstacles that are likely to prevent any communication with them: distance and time.
When you look at the numbers, you’d think the chance that there is intelligent extraterrestrial life in our galaxy seems enormous. The search for planets going around other stars by instruments like the Kepler space telescope and the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Sattellite, or TESS, have turned up more than 4,000 planets just in our cosmic backyard.
It is beginning to look like most stars have at least one planet going around them, and with up to 400 billion stars in the Milky Way, that could mean on the order of a trillion planets in our galaxy alone. And there are hundreds of billions of other galaxies spread across the universe.
However, many of the planets discovered so far are gas giants like Jupiter, as close to their stars as Mercury is to the sun, or far away, making them super cold like Pluto. What we need to find are Earth-sized planets going around sun-type stars at just the right distance so liquid water can exist on the surface.
Another study out of the University of British Columbia looked at the number of sun-like stars in the galaxy and estimated that one in five of them could have an Earth-like planet, which brings the number down to sx billion. So that’s a lot of planets that could have someone interesting living on them that we might want to talk to.
Artist’s impression shows the planet K2-18b, a “super Earth” that could have liquid water in its atmosphere. (ESA/Hubble, M. Kornmesser)
The University of Nottingham team took this one step further suggesting that if we want to find something more intelligent than alien bacteria, or the equivalent of plants or simple animals, then you have to wait for intelligent life to evolve. Since it took nearly five billion years for intelligent life to evolve on Earth to the point where it had communications technology, they figured that might be a reasonable average. Then they assumed that these civilizations retained that capacity for about 100 years — again about as long as we’ve had it.
Taking this into account, they calculated that a mere 36 (plus or minus) intelligent, communicating civilizations might exist right now. That’s a very small number to be spread out across a very large galaxy. In fact, they think it’s likely these civilizations would be about 17,000 light years away from each other. That is the distance/time problem.
Our current rocket technology cannot cover even a significant fraction of a light year of distance. We are still struggling just to get people to the moon and Mars, let alone another star. Even if we had starships that could travel close to the speed of light, or if we sent a signal that travels at that speed, it would still take 17,000 years to get there, and the same amount of time for an answer to return — if they feel like answering and if they’re still there. That is the time problem. Space is simply too big for easy communication as we know it across the galaxy.
The other part of the time problem implicit in this research is that intelligent life might be common over the life of our galaxy, but civilizations are unlikely to appear nearby at the same time. Of course since no one knows how long intelligent civilizations last, (given our current trajectory, some might guess not very long) it is entirely possible that other civilizations have come and gone in our galactic neighbourhood while we were still trying to figure out how to become multicellular. Others have yet to evolve. We are just missing each other in the vastness of cosmic space and time.
A model of an alien character. A new study suggests the closest planet hosting a technologically advancaed civilization might be 17,000 light years away. (The Associated Press)
Of course these are sterile calculations, and we could be the beneficiaries of a cosmic accident, if it turns out by rare chance an intelligent civilization has arisen nearby and recently.
These calculations can go right into the recycling bin if the folks at the SETI Institute detect a signal from an intelligence in deep space or an alien spaceship lands in Vancouver’s Stanley Park.
Then, of course, we will be faced with a communication challenge, if the aliens have no knowledge of Earthly languages (the movie Arrival looked at this problem).
In the meantime, we are faced with the reality that the only life we know for certain that exists in the galaxy is here on Earth. If those 36 other civilizations are out there, they may be essentially out of reach, which leaves us functionally alone.
The rarity of intelligent life means that we are indeed special in that we have figured out our place in the universe. Most other life on this planet is not aware of our cosmic address within the Milky Way. That seems a profound thing to contemplate.
The question now is can we survive, maintain our planet and our technology long enough to better the odds of meeting one of those alien civilizations?
NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — The body of Ugandan Olympic athlete Rebecca Cheptegei — who died after being set on fire by her partner in Kenya — was received Friday by family and anti-femicide crusaders, ahead of her burial a day later.
Cheptegei’s family met with dozens of activists Friday who had marched to the Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital’s morgue in the western city of Eldoret while chanting anti-femicide slogans.
She is the fourth female athlete to have been killed by her partner in Kenya in yet another case of gender-based violence in recent years.
Viola Cheptoo, the founder of Tirop Angels – an organization that was formed in honor of athlete Agnes Tirop, who was stabbed to death in 2021, said stakeholders need to ensure this is the last death of an athlete due to gender-based violence.
“We are here to say that enough is enough, we are tired of burying our sisters due to GBV,” she said.
It was a somber mood at the morgue as athletes and family members viewed Cheptegei’s body which sustained 80% of burns after she was doused with gasoline by her partner Dickson Ndiema. Ndiema sustained 30% burns on his body and later succumbed.
Ndiema and Cheptegei were said to have quarreled over a piece of land that the athlete bought in Kenya, according to a report filed by the local chief.
Cheptegei competed in the women’s marathon at the Paris Olympics less than a month before the attack. She finished in 44th place.
Cheptegei’s father, Joseph, said that the body will make a brief stop at their home in the Endebess area before proceeding to Bukwo in eastern Uganda for a night vigil and burial on Saturday.
“We are in the final part of giving my daughter the last respect,” a visibly distraught Joseph said.
He told reporters last week that Ndiema was stalking and threatening Cheptegei and the family had informed police.
Four in 10 women or an estimated 41% of dating or married Kenyan women have experienced physical or sexual violence perpetrated by their current or most recent partner, according to the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey 2022.
TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — A rare Bronze-Era jar accidentally smashed by a 4-year-old visiting a museum was back on display Wednesday after restoration experts were able to carefully piece the artifact back together.
Last month, a family from northern Israel was visiting the museum when their youngest son tipped over the jar, which smashed into pieces.
Alex Geller, the boy’s father, said his son — the youngest of three — is exceptionally curious, and that the moment he heard the crash, “please let that not be my child” was the first thought that raced through his head.
The jar has been on display at the Hecht Museum in Haifa for 35 years. It was one of the only containers of its size and from that period still complete when it was discovered.
The Bronze Age jar is one of many artifacts exhibited out in the open, part of the Hecht Museum’s vision of letting visitors explore history without glass barriers, said Inbal Rivlin, the director of the museum, which is associated with Haifa University in northern Israel.
It was likely used to hold wine or oil, and dates back to between 2200 and 1500 B.C.
Rivlin and the museum decided to turn the moment, which captured international attention, into a teaching moment, inviting the Geller family back for a special visit and hands-on activity to illustrate the restoration process.
Rivlin added that the incident provided a welcome distraction from the ongoing war in Gaza. “Well, he’s just a kid. So I think that somehow it touches the heart of the people in Israel and around the world,“ said Rivlin.
Roee Shafir, a restoration expert at the museum, said the repairs would be fairly simple, as the pieces were from a single, complete jar. Archaeologists often face the more daunting task of sifting through piles of shards from multiple objects and trying to piece them together.
Experts used 3D technology, hi-resolution videos, and special glue to painstakingly reconstruct the large jar.
Less than two weeks after it broke, the jar went back on display at the museum. The gluing process left small hairline cracks, and a few pieces are missing, but the jar’s impressive size remains.
The only noticeable difference in the exhibit was a new sign reading “please don’t touch.”
VICTORIA – The British Columbia government is partnering with a bear welfare group to reduce the number of bears being euthanized in the province.
Nicholas Scapillati, executive director of Grizzly Bear Foundation, said Monday that it comes after months-long discussions with the province on how to protect bears, with the goal to give the animals a “better and second chance at life in the wild.”
Scapillati said what’s exciting about the project is that the government is open to working with outside experts and the public.
“So, they’ll be working through Indigenous knowledge and scientific understanding, bringing in the latest techniques and training expertise from leading experts,” he said in an interview.
B.C. government data show conservation officers destroyed 603 black bears and 23 grizzly bears in 2023, while 154 black bears were killed by officers in the first six months of this year.
Scapillati said the group will publish a report with recommendations by next spring, while an independent oversight committee will be set up to review all bear encounters with conservation officers to provide advice to the government.
Environment Minister George Heyman said in a statement that they are looking for new ways to ensure conservation officers “have the trust of the communities they serve,” and the panel will make recommendations to enhance officer training and improve policies.
Lesley Fox, with the wildlife protection group The Fur-Bearers, said they’ve been calling for such a committee for decades.
“This move demonstrates the government is listening,” said Fox. “I suspect, because of the impending election, their listening skills are potentially a little sharper than they normally are.”
Fox said the partnership came from “a place of long frustration” as provincial conservation officers kill more than 500 black bears every year on average, and the public is “no longer tolerating this kind of approach.”
“I think that the conservation officer service and the B.C. government are aware they need to change, and certainly the public has been asking for it,” said Fox.
Fox said there’s a lot of optimism about the new partnership, but, as with any government, there will likely be a lot of red tape to get through.
“I think speed is going to be important, whether or not the committee has the ability to make change and make change relatively quickly without having to study an issue to death, ” said Fox.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 9, 2024.
