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Things are looking up for real estate markets heading into 2020 – Financial Post

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After a disappointing 2018, when housing prices and sales declined, 2019 has been a year of resilience for housing markets across most of Canada. Not only did sales numbers stabilize and resume an upward climb, but prices also demonstrated some strength.

As we move closer to 2020, those involved with the real estate industry and the million-plus Canadian households who are likely to buy or sell a residential property in the next year are wondering whether things will continue to improve in the year ahead, or if there is more trouble in store.

The good news is that a review of the forecasts by leading real estate experts in Canada points to a recovery in 2020. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) estimates the national home sales to reach 530,000 units in 2020, an 8.9 per cent increase over the total expected for 2019. CREA also expects the national average price to hit $531,000 in 2020, a 6.2 per cent increase.

Royal LePage, meanwhile, is predicting a 3.2 per cent year-over-year increase in housing prices next year with RE/MAX a little more optimistic at 3.7 per cent. Though their benchmark prices are different from CREA, they see the market moving in the same direction.

Likewise, a poll of 18 economists, conducted by Reuters in November, also saw gains ahead, predicting Canadian housing prices would rise by 3 per cent in 2020 and 2.9 per cent in 2021.

The positive forecast for housing markets in 2020 is supported by strong immigration numbers that are likely to maintain a sustained demand for housing in Canada’s most populous housing markets. A Royal LePage survey reported in October 2019 that “newcomers to Canada are expected to purchase one in every five homes on the market over the next five years.”

At the same time, CREA notes that the Bank of Canada is unlikely to raise interest rates in 2020, which will drive demand for mortgage finance.

While most market watchers are optimistic about housing, there are some causes for concern. For starters, not everyone expects a three-plus per cent jump in prices. Fitch Ratings, a debt assessment firm, is forecasting a mere 1 per cent growth in housing prices in 2020. When adjusted for 2 per cent inflation, Fitch is forecasting a decline in real house prices for the next year.

Another concern is that listings are not keeping pace with sales. An increase in new listings, when sales are climbing, is needed to restrict inflationary pressures. Royal LePage, in its forecast for 2020, is also mindful of a lack of growth in listings. “The story in 2020 will be lack of supply,” warns the real estate firm.

Accompanying the tightened supply is growth in mortgage credit. This has caught the attention of the Bank of Canada. In a recent address, Carolyn Wilkins, senior deputy governor of the Bank, noted that a drop in mortgage rates had “boosted” the markets. “Many of the same ingredients that were present in some housing markets three years ago — namely strong underlying demand, tight supply and low-interest rates — are present again,” she noted.

Despite the concerns, markets are better equipped to deal with the determinants of inflationary pressures. The Bank of Canada expects “the regulatory and other measures in place will support the quality of new credit and mitigate the buildup of imbalances in the housing market.”

The regulatory measure credited the most with addressing housing price inflation is the stress test, which was expanded in January 2018 to include uninsured mortgages and required borrowers to qualify at a higher rate than the negotiated rate with the lender to address the possibility of a future rate hike.

While Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has directed his finance minister, Bill Morneau, to review the tests and potentially make them more dynamic, it is not certain if or precisely how that will happen. Any changes will have to balance the needs of Alberta and the Prairies, where housing markets have been struggling, with those of regions where demand has already started to pick up.

All told, a vibrant labour market, vigorous demand for housing and low interest rates suggest conditions will be favourable for housing in 2020. The federal government’s initiative to help new homebuyers with shared equity mortgages and a possible review of the stress test are also positive signs. But as always in real estate, there are plenty of unknowns that could disrupt that positive picture.

Murtaza Haider is a professor of Real Estate Management at Ryerson University. Stephen Moranis is a real estate industry veteran. They can be reached at www.hmbulletin.com.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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