What exactly are we to do in this levitating market? Buy more? Pull back? Do nothing?
I get why most folks are uneasy these days—they’re seeing the stock market, and particularly tech stocks, heading into the stratosphere, while the economy that supports them is a mess. Stocks can’t hang in midair forever, the thinking goes. Eventually they’ll plunge to earth.
A (Pleasant) Surprise in a Lousy Year
Don’t buy this argument. Because in the weird market we’re in, stocks can not only hover but actually rip higher and hand us growing dividends, too. Let me show you what I mean, starting with the economy.
Sure, GDP cratered 34.3% in the lockdown-riddled second quarter, but it rebounded 38% in the third quarter to get back to near its pre-crisis level. Still, our economy is still behind, so shouldn’t stocks be behind as well?
Remember that stocks are forward looking—they’re not priced based on present earnings but future earnings growth. And since the first half of 2020 saw some shocking earnings declines due to the lockdown, the strong implication here is that the first half of 2021 will see tremendous earnings growth just because the comparables are so low, never mind the effect that three (and possibly more) vaccines in the coming months will have on consumer spending.
From Travel to E-Commerce—and Back Again?
What’s more, consumer spending has reshuffled, giving more support to both the S&P 500 and the tech sector than most investors believe.
When you dive into the third-quarter data, you see that earnings declines are mostly concentrated where you’d expect them: in the travel and leisure sectors. But it’s important to remember that travel-spending declines are destined to be short-lived. When vaccines are out and people can travel again, pent-up demand will spur earnings in the sector.
Now, if we saw a massive growth in travel-related stocks before those higher earnings were released, you could say this sector has gotten out of hand. But in reality, that’s not the case.
The airline-industry-focused US Global Jets ETF (JETS)
JETS
, which holds major carriers like Delta Air Lines (DAL
JBLU
(JBLU), remains behind the broader market. This shows that investors are waiting for clearer evidence of the big earnings boost a return to travel will provide. But this doesn’t mean it’s time to run out and buy JETS—or load up on any travel-related stocks, because any profit gains in that sector will likely be tempered.
In theory, it makes sense that you’d see a shift of discretionary spending from e-commerce to travel as soon as people aren’t stuck in the house anymore. But this implies that a big driver of the e-commerce shift has been vacation money that people simply redirected to online purchases. But there’s more to this story.
More Than Travel Goes Online
FRED
E-commerce data shows a steady shift in spending from offline to online until COVID-19, when that trend accelerated. People who had bought little to nothing online were now buying groceries through the web. The Internet had become a place to buy essentials, not just discretionary goods.
CEF Insider
The pace of this spending growth is essential to understanding how durable this trend is. Since the 32% jump in online spending began at the start of the shutdown, and with that spending staying high throughout the third quarter, we can see that the increase wasn’t driven by discretionary spending (or it would have shown up later), and it wasn’t driven solely by one-time panic buying of essentials (or it wouldn’t have lasted into the third quarter).
In other words, Americans’ pivot to e-commerce will likely continue, which justifies the tech sector’s big gains for 2020 (since those companies are largely connected to online shopping) while also justifying the S&P 500’s lower but still-strong returns (since the companies producing many of the products consumers are buying are benefiting from the shift to e-commerce).
The bottom line? Now is not the time to worry about a bubble, in either tech or the market as a whole, even if the big deals in stocks we saw earlier this year are over.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 250 points in late-morning trading, led by strength in the base metal and technology sectors, while U.S. stock markets also charged higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 254.62 points at 23,847.22.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 432.77 points at 41,935.87. The S&P 500 index was up 96.38 points at 5,714.64, while the Nasdaq composite was up 486.12 points at 18,059.42.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.68 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.
The November crude oil contract was up 89 cents at US$70.77 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down a penny at US2.27 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$9.40 at US$2,608.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.33 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
Losing a loved one is never easy, and the legal steps that follow can add even more stress to an already difficult time.
For years, families in Vancouver (and Canada in general) have struggled with a complex probate process—filled with paperwork and legal challenges.
Thankfully, recent changes to Canada’s probate laws aim to make this process simpler and easier to navigate.
Let’s unearth how these updates can simplify the process for you and your family.
What is probate?
Probate might sound complicated, but it’s simply the legal process of settling someone’s estate after death.
Here’s how it works.
Validating the will. The court checks if the will is legal and valid.
Appointing an executor. If named in the will, the executor manages the estate. If not, the court appoints someone.
Settling debts and taxes. The executor (and you) pays debts and taxes before anything can be given.
Distributing the estate. Once everything is settled, the executor distributes the remaining assets according to the will or legal rules.
Probate ensures everything is done by the book, giving you peace of mind during a difficult time.
Recent Changes in Canadian Probate Laws
Several updates to probate law in the country are making the process smoother for you and your family.
Here’s a closer look at the fundamental changes that are making a real difference.
1) Virtual witnessing of wills
Now permanent in many provinces, including British Columbia, wills can be signed and witnessed remotely through video calls.
Such a change makes estate planning more accessible, especially for those in remote areas or with limited mobility.
2) Simplified process for small estates
Smaller estates, like those under 25,000 CAD in BC, now have a faster, simplified probate process.
Fewer forms and legal steps mean less hassle for families handling modest estates.
3) Substantial compliance for wills
Courts can now approve wills with minor errors if they reflect the person’s true intentions.
This update prevents unnecessary legal challenges and ensures the deceased’s wishes are respected.
These changes help make probate less stressful and more efficient for you and other families across Canada.
The Probate Process and You: The Role of a Probate Lawyer
(Image: Freepik.com)
Working with a probate lawyer in Vancouver can significantly simplify the probate process, especially given the city’s complex legal landscape.
Here’s how they can help.
Navigating the legal process
Probate lawyers ensure all legal steps are followed, preventing costly mistakes and ensuring the estate is managed properly.
Handling paperwork and deadlines
They manage all the paperwork and court deadlines, taking the burden off of you during this difficult time.
Resolving disputes
If conflicts arise, probate lawyers resolve them, avoiding legal battles.
Providing you peace of mind
With a probate lawyer’s expertise, you can trust that the estate is being handled efficiently and according to the law.
With a skilled probate lawyer, you can ensure the entire process is smooth and stress-free.
Why These Changes Matter
The updates to probate law make a big difference for Canadian families. Here’s why.
Less stress for you. Simplified processes mean you can focus on grieving, not paperwork.
Faster estate settlements. Estates are settled more quickly, so beneficiaries don’t face long delays.
Fewer disputes. Courts can now honor will with minor errors, reducing family conflicts.
Accessible for everyone. Virtual witnessing and easier rules for small estates make probate more accessible for everyone, no matter where you live.
With these changes, probate becomes smoother and more manageable for you and your family.
How to Prepare for the Probate Process
Even with the recent changes, being prepared makes probate smoother. Here are a few steps to help you prepare.
Create a will. Ensure a valid will is in place to avoid complications.
Choose an executor. Pick someone responsible for managing the estate and discuss their role with them.
Organize documents. Keep key financial and legal documents in one place for easy access.
Talk to your family. Have open conversations with your family to prevent future misunderstandings.
Get legal advice. Consult with a probate lawyer to ensure everything is legally sound and up-to-date.
These simple steps make the probate process easier for everyone involved.
Wrapping Up: Making Probate Easier in Vancouver
Recent updates in probate law are simplifying the process for families, from virtual witnessing to easier estate rules. These reforms are designed to ease the burden, helping you focus on what matters—grieving and respecting your dead loved ones’ final wishes.
Despite these changes, it’s best to consult a probate lawyer to ensure you can manage everything properly. Remember, they’re here to help you during this difficult time.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was higher in late-morning trading, helped by strength in energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also moved up.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 34.91 points at 23,736.98.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 178.05 points at 41,800.13. The S&P 500 index was up 28.38 points at 5,661.47, while the Nasdaq composite was up 133.17 points at 17,725.30.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.56 cents US compared with 73.57 cents US on Monday.
The November crude oil contract was up 68 cents at US$69.70 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up three cents at US$2.40 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was down US$7.80 at US$2,601.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.28 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.
