Some gold investors have been frustrated with gold’s recent price action as the precious metal is traditionally seen as an inflation hedge. As markets digest the latest Consumer Price Index report, gold is starting to see some solid gains. August gold futures last traded at $1,738.30 an ounce, up 0.72% on the day.
However, some analysts note that gold’s relatively disappointing price action makes sense within a broader market scope.
Despite gold’s rally, analysts note that the precious metal is generally struggling as an inflation hedge because markets don’t see inflation as a long-term threat as the Federal Reserve aggressively raises interest rates. Following the June Consumer Price Index report, markets are now pricing in a more than 50% chance that the U.S. central bank will move by a full 1.00%. For comparison, markets were only pricing in less than 8% chance Tuesday.
“While in theory gold prices should benefit from higher inflation numbers, the reality is that these higher inflation figures suggest that the Fed is likely to become even more aggressive in rasing rates to quell strong inflation. This is resulting in a stronger U.S. dollar versus other major currencies as well as placing a lid on future inflation expectations,” said commodity analysts at CPM Group in a note to clients.
Although inflation is rising, the Federal Reserve’s resolve to bring it down is pushing real yields higher, causing breakeven rates to fall. Breakeven rates, the difference between nominal and real yields, have fallen across the curve at the fastest pace in two years.
In a recent interview with Kitco News, Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said noted the discrepancy between inflation and the one-year/one-year breakeven rate of below 4%. At the same time, the five-year/five-year breakeven rate is hovering around 2.6%.
“We got a 5% discrepancy between where inflation is expected to be in the years’time and where it is right now. Are we going to see inflation drop 5%? I sincerely doubt it. But for now, the market is betting on the Fed’s ability to hike rates and for growth to come down, taking inflation with it,” he said.
Katherine Judge, senior economist at CIBC, said that she expects inflation pressures to continue to ease as the Federal Reserve aggressively tightens interest rates.
“Our forecast to get the ceiling for the fed funds rate up to 3.25% this year, combined with higher prices dampening consumer demand in discretionary areas of the economy, should produce enough of a growth slowdown to quell inflation in 2023 and to prevent a de-anchoring of inflation expectations,” she said.
Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management, said that the broad-based drop in commodities, with copper falling to multi-year lows, signals that recession fears are replacing inflation fears.
“The underlying inflation pressure from commodity prices has started to ease,” he said. “people are expecting a, a demand to come down as a global recession hits. That is why commodities are coming down,” he said.
However, the question remains if a recession will cause enough demand destruction to impact the significant global supply issues. He added that this will determine just how persistent inflation will be through 2023.
Analysts have noted that the global economy faces fundamental supply issues. Tuesday Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said that it sees oil demand growing to 102.99 million barrels per day, up from 100.29 million barrels per day forecasted for this year. The forecast suggests oil supplies could remain constrained next year as growth in non-OPEC output, which has been hit by Russian losses, lags the rise in demand.
Oil isn’t the only market facing growing demand and weak supply. Copper prices have dropped sharply in recent weeks, but warehouse levels are at historic lows.
According to inventory data, LME warehouses held just 696,109 tonnes of registered copper at the end of June. Analysts have said that this is the lowest level seen this century.
“The big question out there is what will it take to get prices down? How deep of a recession are central banks going to have to force to get inflation under control?” said Cieszynski.
Although gold is oversold, Cieszynski said he couldn’t rule out price testing support at $1,680 an ounce in the near term.
However, he added that gold continues to show some relative strength compared to other assets, particularly in the face of massive momentum in the U.S. dollar.
“Overall, gold has held up well when we compare it with what other currencies have done,” he said.
Fill up today! Here's when gas prices will rise seven cents a litre in Ottawa – CTV News Ottawa
Ottawa motorists will want to fill up the gas tank on Saturday, before prices start to rise at the end of the weekend.
Gas prices dropped to their lowest level in six months at Ottawa stations on Saturday, at $1.599 a litre. According to ottawagasprices.com, some stations in Ottawa were selling gas for $1.54 a litre.
Prices have dropped 20 cents a litre in Ottawa since Thursday.
However, Canadians for Affordable Energy President Dan McTeague is telling motorists to fill up the gas tank today.
McTeague forecasts prices will rise seven cents a litre in Ottawa and across Ontario on Sunday to 166.8 cents a litre.
Gas prices in Ottawa have dropped 56 cents a litre since hitting a record high of 215.9 cents a litre on June 11. A drop in demand and rising fears about a recession drove down the price of oil. The Ontario government cut the gas tax rate on July 1 from 14.7 cents per litre to 9 cents per litre.
Speaking on Newstalk 580 CFRA’s Ottawa at Work on Friday, McTeague said the recent drop in gas prices is welcome, but “don’t expect it to last.”
“The markets, I think, are overestimating the amount of demand drop we’ve seen in the United States and underestimating the severest supply shortage that we’re having,” McTeague said.
Pandemic benefits were too generous with businesses, stringent with workers: experts – CP24 Toronto's Breaking News
Nojoud Al Mallees, The Canadian Press
Published Saturday, August 6, 2022 11:21AM EDT
Benefits rolled out at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic allowed vulnerable Canadians to stay healthy while maintaining an income, but business supports were excessive and show the outsized influence of business groups on public policy, economists say.
Nearly two and a half years ago, the federal government faced an unprecedented task of shutting down the economy to slow the rapid spread of COVID-19. That shutdown led to a series of pandemic relief benefits aimed at softening the blow to workers and businesses, with the two most prominent programs being the Canada Emergency Response Benefit and the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy.
Recent analysis from Statistics Canada based on census data shows two-thirds of Canadian adults received pandemic benefits in 2020, with these benefits cushioning income losses and reducing inequality.
Previous analysis from the federal statistics agency also found that, as was expected, usage of the wage subsidy program correlated with a lower probability of closure and fewer employee reductions.
While there was little time to spend on crafting the benefits and fine-tuning the details in March 2020, economists are now assessing the successes and failures of these programs in retrospect.
City of New York University economics professor Miles Corak, who has written analyses on these programs, says any evaluation needs to account for the uncertainty people and governments were facing at the time and the urgent need to keep people healthy.
That said, Corak said while the CERB was “terribly successful,” the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy was a “huge failure.”
“The Canada Emergency Response Benefit got money out the door quickly in time to keep people at home, which is what we wanted to do to save lives,” he said.
On the other hand, Corak said the CEWS “came too late, it wasn’t well-targeted and dramatically over-insured (businesses).”
The CERB was quickly announced in March 2020 and $2,000 monthly to Canadians who lost income because of the pandemic shutdown. That was followed soon after by the CEWS, which subsidized businesses’ employee wages by 75 per cent in hopes of encouraging companies to hold on to their staff.
Corak says that by the time the wage subsidy was introduced, many businesses had already parted ways with their employees.
Another source of criticism for the wage subsidy program was that it subsidized wages for all workers at affected businesses, rather than simply those whose jobs were at risk of being lost, making it especially costly.
Jennifer Robson, an associate professor of political management at Carleton University, also pointed to the wage subsidy program as being unsuccessful. Robson said businesses that would have otherwise closed down for reasons unrelated to the pandemic remained artificially afloat because of the wage subsidy.
“These were not businesses that were going to return to profitability,” Robson said.
Statistics Canada data shows the number of business closures spiked dramatically in April 2020, but a sharp decline followed, bringing monthly closures to a lower level than pre-pandemic.
About 31,000 businesses closed in August 2020, while nearly 40,000 had closed in February 2020.
In hindsight, Corak said the wage subsidy program should have been smaller in scope and targeted to larger businesses with specialized needs where it would be important for companies to hold on to the same employees, such as the airline sector.
The Canadian Federation of Independent Business has said the wage subsidy was “crucial” for small business owners and noted in April this year that only two of five of its members reported being back to normal sales.
Adrienne Vaupshas, the press secretary for Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, said in a statement the focus of the government at the onset of the pandemic was to protect jobs and ensure a strong economic recovery.
“Today we have recovered 114 per cent of the jobs that were lost during the darkest months of the pandemic,” Vaupshas said.
In contrast to what some economists have characterized as excessively generous supports for businesses, some low-income Canadians have experienced clawbacks to social assistance benefits because they collected CERB. The Canada Revenue Agency is also hoping to recoup benefits paid out to over 400,000 Canadians whose eligibility was questioned.
In response, anti-poverty group Campaign 2000 has called for CERB amnesty.
Corak said while it’s reasonable to ask those who fraudulently collected benefits to pay them back, businesses should be held to the same standard.
“The concern I would have is the asymmetry in this response between individuals and businesses,” Corak said.
The CFIB has called for more loan forgiveness for small businesses who accessed loans through the Canada Emergency Business Account. The federal government is already offering partial loan forgiveness if repayments are made by the end of 2023.
Robson said when it comes to shaping public policy, business interest groups have well-resourced public relations teams to further their interests.
“There is nothing like that for individual low-wage workers,” said Robson.
Corak noted that at the start of the pandemic, there was a focus on the role of front-line workers, but with time, this shifted to small businesses.
“I think the small business lobby was very effective in informing individual MPs and putting pressure on cabinet and the government to respond in a way that many unseen and unheard mothers, fathers workers and families just didn’t have that same voice,” Corak said.
The danger of the wage subsidy program, Corak said, is that it sets a precedent for providing excessive subsidies to businesses and thereby stifling innovation.
“We’re almost moving towards a basic income for small business rather than a basic income for individuals,” he said.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 6, 2022.
'Head-scratcher:' Economists weigh in on Canada's surprise job loss – Yahoo Canada Finance
Canada’s July jobs reading caught economists by surprise with a loss of 30,600 positions rather than an expected gain of 15,000 for the month.
Despite the negative reading coming on the heels of a still larger decline in June, the unemployment rate stuck to its historic low of 4.9 per cent based, according to Statistics Canada, on a drop in Canada’s participation rate.
“Canada’s labour market is not in disarray,” said National Bank economists Kyle Dahms and Alexandra Ducharme, in their jobs commentary, noting that year-to-date, the private sector has added 110,000 positions. The pair said they continue to see “resilience in the Canadian economy” making them outliers among other big bank analysts.
After digesting July’s numbers, most economists appear to have taken away two narratives:
The Bank of Canada won’t be deterred from raising rates further, and possibly with another bigger than normal hike.
July’s jobs reading hints at an economy that is beginning to “lose steam.”
Here are the economists in their own words:
Rishi Sondhi, TD Economics
“That’s two in a row in terms of weak headline jobs prints, and employment has now averaged an 11k decline over the past three months. This is consistent with our view that economic growth will soften in the second half of the year. The details skewed to the softer end in July, as full-time employment accounted for a larger share of the overall jobs decline than in June, and hours worked also fell. The latter is particularly notable as it could signal a soft print for monthly GDP, following flat growth in May and a sub-trend gain in June (based on Statcan’s preliminary estimate).”
Stephen Brown, Capital Economics
“The second consecutive monthly decline in employment will raise a few eyebrows at the Bank of Canada but, with the unemployment rate unchanged at a record low and wage growth still strong, we doubt it will prevent the Bank from hiking its policy rate by a further 100 bp at the next two meetings…. While the increase in average hourly earnings was a little lower than we expected, at 0.4% m/m, that gain is still too high for comfort in terms of meeting the Bank’s 2% CPI inflation target. At the margin, the July LFS may tilt the odds a bit toward a 50 bp rate hike in September rather than a 75 bp one, but we doubt it will be the deciding factor.”
Andrew Grantham, CIBC Economics
“The Canadian employment figures were somewhat of a head-scratcher again in July, with employment falling for a second consecutive month but the unemployment rate remaining historically low. The 31K decline in jobs came against consensus expectations for a 15K gain, and added to the 43K decline in the prior month. However, a two-tick decline in the participation rate meant that the jobless rate remained at 4.9%. Job losses were strangely concentrated in the services sector, including wholesale & retail, education and health. With some of those sectors reporting high vacancy rates, labour supply rather than demand appears to be the main issue. That said, the major difference between today’s report and last month’s is that wage growth unexpectedly decelerated (to 5.4% y/y from 5.6% and against consensus expectations for 5.9%) although we always caution that the LFS wage series is extremely volatile month/month. While today’s figures muddy the waters further for policymakers, the Bank of Canada will likely focus on the historic low unemployment rate and still strong wage growth to justify another non-standard rate hike at its next meeting.”
Carrie Freeston, RBC Economics
“In the months ahead we will begin to see the economy lose steam. We are already observing jobless claims rising South of the border, as U.S. labour demand begins to cool. Canada will not be far behind. With the Bank of Canada having raised the overnight rate by 225 basis points (to 2.5%) since March, and at least another 75 basis points slated for the fall, inflation pressures will ease. And labour markets are expected to cool. Our forecast calls for the unemployment rate to begin to trend higher in the coming months and into 2023.”
Douglas Porter, BMO Economics
“Canada’s job market is clearly losing momentum in a hurry, likely due to both a marked cooling in the broader economy but also because a lack of available workers. The downward drift in the participation rate, especially for the 15-64 group, is worth watching closely, with the potential to tighten the labour market further. For the Bank of Canada, the takeaway will be that while growth is clearly cooling, conditions remain drum-tight and wages are stirring. We believe this backdrop is consistent with another rate hike at the September meeting, but of a less aggressive nature than the mega 100 bp move in July. We look for a 50 bp hike at that time.”
Marc Desormeaux, Desjardins Economics
“July’s data were well below the consensus projections, and as such shaved our call for Q3-2022 real Canadian GDP growth to just below 1% (q/q saar). Decelerating wage gains suggest that some progress has been made in the fight against inflation, but the rate of hourly earnings growth continues to track prices closely. Accordingly, while we think inflation may have peaked and have noted previously that the Canadian economy is historically sensitive to interest rate increases, we believe the Bank of Canada will put more weight on the extremely tight labour market and raise rates by 50 bps at its September meeting.”
Kyle Dahms/Alexandra Ducharme, National Bank Economics
Canada lost 31K jobs in July, a second consecutive monthly decline. Despite this development, Canada’s labour market is not in disarray. July’s losses were concentrated in public sector jobs. This sector indeed suffered its worst loss outside of a the pandemic since 1976 (-51K), a perplexing development considering the state of public finances at both the federal and provincial levels. Private sector employment, while also down in July, is still up 110K year-to-date with continued contribution from construction and manufacturing during the month. Despite the July decline, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at its lowest level since 1970 due to a 0.2 pp drop in the participation rate, a third decline in four months. With the unemployment rate remaining historically low, we still see resilience in the Canadian domestic economy. This robustness is also confirmed by the evolution of the wages of permanent employees, which grew 5.4% over the last twelve months, down from June’s 5.6% print but still historically high. At this juncture, the Bank of Canada is still on track to hike at its next meeting on the 7th of September with labour shortages continuing to persist according to the latest figures by the CFIB (Canadian Federation of Independent Business).
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