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This Oil Price Rebound Is Only Temporary | OilPrice.com

Josh Owens

Josh Owens is the Content Director at Oilprice.com. An International Relations and Politics graduate from the University of Edinburgh, Josh specialized in Middle East and…

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The worst week in oil market history is finally coming to an end, but some analysts are suggesting there may be more pain in store as crude storage cross the globe reaches capacity. 

Friday, April 24th, 2020

Oil prices stabilized by Friday after arguably the wildest week in the history of the oil market. But the slide is still far from over.

Continental Resources halts production, declares force majeure. Continental Resources (NYSE: CLR) has stopped most of its production in North Dakota. Harold Hamm’s firm is mostly unhedged, exposed to extremely low market prices. Continental told at least one refiner that it couldn’t deliver a shipment of oil because negative prices constituted “waste.” Refiners are not pleased. “It is the height of hypocrisy for a company to choose not to honor its contracts to supply domestic crude to refineries while also demanding the administration impose restrictions on foreign crude,” the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, a trade group representing refiners, told Bloomberg.

U.S. considering lending program for oil companies. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he’s considering creating a government lending program for U.S. oil companies. “Investment-grade companies will be able to either access the normal capital markets or will be able to access the Fed’s investment-grade facility,” he said. “That’s the priority.” Non-investment grade companies may seek “alternative structures with banks,” he said.

Mexico to shut down wells. After making a big deal out of not agreeing to the OPEC+ cuts, Mexico said it would shut down new wells because of low prices. “Now that oil has no value, we can shut down the valves,” Mexico’s president said. State-owned Pemex was downgraded to junk by both Moody’s and Fitch on Friday.

Cushing all booked. Storage at the key oil hub of Cushing, Oklahoma technically has available storage, but it is just about all under contract for leasing, according to Reuters. That means that there is essentially nothing left for anybody else.

Big Oil dividends at risk. Equinor (NYSE: EQNR) cut its dividend by two-thirds this week. Other oil majors will be scrutinized by investors when they begin reporting earnings next week. “The look back into what was a weak first quarter seems almost irrelevant. The game plan for dealing with the next three months and the next 18 months is going to be the focus,” said Jefferies analyst Jason Gammel, according to Reuters. Related: Oil Prices Hit $15 For The First Time In 21 Years

Argentina plans higher oil price. Argentina plans on decreeing a $45-per-barrel price for its domestic producers in order to keep the industry alive.

Hackers have oil industry in cross hairs. Hackers have launched spear-phishing campaigns against oil and gas firms to infiltrate with a spyware for the purpose of collecting sensitive company information and credentials, Bitdefender researchers have found.

Oil ETFs slammed. Roughly $6.2 billion has flowed into the U.S. Oil Fund (NYSEARCA: USO) so far this year. Retail investors, clearly confused about the nature of oil ETFs, have flooded into the funds, betting on rising oil prices. But when the market is in a steep contango, ETFs end up selling low and buying high. A leveraged 3x oil fund also shut its doors.

Eni cut production and spending. Eni (NYSE: E) cut spending by 30 percent and lowered planned 2021 spending by 30-35 percent. The company lowered production guidance to 1.75-1.8 mb/d for 2020, down from 1.9 mb/d previously. When asked about the company’s dividend, Eni’s CEO was non-committal.

Negative oil a risk for banks. Negative oil prices have broken the models that banks use for their trading books. “It’s a huge issue for banks if they cannot produce risk metrics correctly,” Richard Fullarton, founder of Matilda Capital Management, told Bloomberg. Meanwhile, Marex Spectron, a large commodities broker, said it would restrict its customers from taking positions in expiring futures contracts, allowing only for “liquidation of existing positions.”

Regional oil economies at risk. Wyoming, Alaska, Oklahoma, North Dakota and West Virginia all depend more on mining and energy extraction than Texas, according to the Wall Street Journal. For example, energy and mining accounts for 16.4 percent of Wyoming’s GDP.

Related: Shale’s Decline Will Make Way For The Next Big Thing in Oil

Baker Hughes cuts jobs and spending. Baker Hughes (NYSE: BKR) cut jobs and spending by 20 percent. The firm expects oil field activity to fall by half this year. The company reported a first-quarter net loss of $10.2 billion, made worse by a $14.7 billion impairment.

LNG cancellations to soar in June. A large number of LNG cargoes are expected to be cancelled between June and October.

China to cut EV subsidies 10 percent. China said it would cut subsidies for EVs by 10 percent this year.

Half of 60 independent oil companies need liquidity. Half of the largest 60 independent U.S. oil producers will need cash in order to stave off bankruptcy, according to energy lawyers at Haynes and Boone. “The reverberations from this price collapse will be felt throughout the industry and by everyone who provides services to the industry,” Buddy Clark of Haynes and Boone told Reuters.

Pipeline delays after court ruling. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has suspended a nationwide program used to approve oil and gas pipelines after a court last week threw out a blanket permit, according to the AP. The decision put roughly 360 pending projects on hold.

By Josh Owens for Oilprice.com 

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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