This Week’s Top Stories: A Big Canadian Bank Forecasts The Largest Real Estate Price Drop In History, And Canadians Max Out HELOCs - Better Dwelling | Canada News Media
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This Week’s Top Stories: A Big Canadian Bank Forecasts The Largest Real Estate Price Drop In History, And Canadians Max Out HELOCs – Better Dwelling

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Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s most important stories.

Canadian Real Estate

National Bank Of Canada Forecasts Sharpest Real Estate Price Decline Ever
One of Canada’s Big Six banks sees this real estate correction being the largest correction ever. National Bank of Canada is forecasting prices will decline 9.8% from late 2020 to 2021. Prices dropped just 6.3% during the Great Recession in 2008. The largest previous drop was during the 1981 recession, where prices dipped 9.2%. The bank specified more overvalued markets will obviously see larger corrections.
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Almost 20% Of Canadian Homeowners Nearly Maxed Out HELOCs Before The Pandemic
Canadian homeowners pushed home equity line of credit (HELOC) balances to the limit. There was $206 billion of HELOC credit outstanding in Q4 2019, about 35% of the total available. Bank of Canada staff determined 17% of accounts in Q4 2019 tapped between 90 and 100% of available credit. This is a substantial number of households with credit maxed out immediately before an economic shock.
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Job Losses Climb In Toronto And Vancouver, While Unemployment Rate Hits Record
Canada’s largest real estate markets are seeing job losses rise to levels not seen in a very long time. Toronto’s rate of unemployment reached 11.2% in May, up from 7.9% just a month before. In Vancouver, the rate reached 10.7% in May, up from 7.5% the month before. As bad as those numbers are, total labour utilization in both regions dropped, making the numbers look better than they actually are.
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One In Five Canadian Households Only Have 2 Months Of Mortgage Payments Saved
A large segment of Canadians only have enough to cover a few months of mortgage payments. Bank of Canada staff estimates 20% of households can make 2 months of mortgage payments or less, without income support. They also further add less than a third of households could make four months of payments. The bank assumed no other debt was being carried by the households, which means this may be a generous estimate.
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US Real Estate

The US Gets Fastest Recession Declaration In History
NBER, an elite group of American economists that call the top and bottom of the business cycle, made an unusual decision last week. Instead of waiting for two consecutive quarters of negative GDP data, they concluded economic indicators had deteriorated enough to declare the United State in a recession. On a monthly basis, the organization concluded the economy peaked in February. On a quarterly basis, the economy peaked in Q4 2019. This marks the end of 128 months of expansion – the longest expansion in American history.
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Global Real Estate

World Bank Expects The Largest Globally Synchronized Recession In History
World Bank is forecasting the largest globally synchronized recession in history. This year 92.9% of economies are expected to enter a recession, a decline in per capita GDP. This is higher than the previous record of 83.8% of economies, set during the Great Depression in the 1930s. The organization expects the negative indicators to bottom next year, but also sees it taking many years to get back to where the global economy was last year.
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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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