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Those byelection results suggest the next federal election is up for grabs

Published

1 year ago

June 21, 2023

Last week, Abacus Data released a survey that suggested 81 per cent of Canadians would like to see a change in government at the federal level — but a substantial number of those who would prefer change are also uncomfortable with their options.

That survey might be a good place to start for those trying to understand Monday night’s byelection results.

At least as they pertain to current standings in the House of Commons, the results were status quo — the Liberals retained two seats and the Conservatives kept two seats.

There are a number of reasons to believe the Liberals will have a difficult time holding on to power in the next general election. But Monday’s byelections suggest that the outcome of that election is very far from a foregone conclusion.

If anything, it was the Liberals who had the best night.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre can take some comfort from the fact that Maxime Bernier couldn’t manage more than 17 per cent in Portage-Lisgar — four points below what the People’s Party leader received there in 2021.

If Poilievre’s leadership has so far been aimed at bringing back Conservative voters who went to the People’s Party in 2021, Portage-Lisgar offers some evidence that he is succeeding. The Conservatives might not have knocked Bernier out but they have at least knocked him down. And that might mean Poilievre now has to spend less time trying to appeal to Bernier’s voters.

But the Conservatives may have done significant damage to themselves in the process. Over the weekend, the Liberals released video of the Conservative candidate in Portage-Lisgar, Branden Leslie, saying that he would have voted against legislation that banned conversion therapy.

3 federal party leaders visit Manitoba on same day to campaign in byelections

The leaders of three federal political parties were in Manitoba today. They were working to gain support in two federal byelection campaigns now underway.

The Conservatives also managed to hold on to the southwestern Ontario riding of Oxford, but only just. In the last four federal elections, the Conservatives have won that riding by an average of 25 points. On Monday, the Conservative candidate won it by seven points.

That might be chalked up to a messy nomination fight that split local Conservative supporters — Dave MacKenzie, the former Conservative MP for the riding, ended up endorsing the Liberal candidate. Monday’s result could end up looking like a fluke of fleeting circumstances. But the fact the Conservative lead shrank by as much as it did might suggest there’s more than internecine conflict to blame.

Either way, Oxford is a victory that Poilievre won’t be able to brag about.

The Liberals hold their ground

The Liberals can take their own comfort from the result in Montreal’s Westmount riding, where their traditional vote largely held up despite grumbling about the government’s changes to language laws. Potentially more interesting is the result in Winnipeg South Centre — less for the fact the Liberals won than for the margin of victory.

A few hours before the polls closed on Monday, former Conservative leader Erin O’Toole appeared on CBC’s Power & Politics and went so far as to suggest that the Conservatives could also win Winnipeg South Centre.

O’Toole’s basis for believing that is unclear. But it’s not crazy to imagine the Conservative Party being competitive in such a riding right now — the Conservatives won the riding in 2011 when the Liberal vote collapsed nationally and Stephen Harper led the Conservatives to a majority government.

Trudeau congratulates Liberal byelection winners

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau welcomed two new Liberal MPs to Ottawa after wins in byelections in Winnipeg and Montreal on Monday night.

Monday night’s result in Winnipeg South Centre was not close. Two years ago, the late Liberal minister Jim Carr won the riding by nearly 18 points. On Monday, Carr’s son Ben won the riding by almost 32 points — matching the spread that Jim Carr had in 2015 when the Liberals won a majority government.

On its own, that result might not mean much. But it matches what happened six months ago in a byelection in the Ontario riding of Mississauga-Lakeshore — another urban/suburban riding that the Conservatives won in 2011.

In 2021, the Liberals won that riding by six points. In 2022, after recruiting former provincial cabinet minister Charles Sousa to run, the Liberals won Mississauga-Lakeshore by 14 points.

Those results don’t necessarily tell us anything about what could happen in a federal election that might still be two years away. But if the tide of public opinion was moving decisively against the government, you might expect to see the Liberals losing ground or the Conservatives gaining it. Beyond Portage-Lisgar, the margins for the Conservative Party last night appeared to be getting worse, not better.

PM’s numbers are bad — Poilievre’s aren’t much better

The byelections might speak to some latent support for the Liberals that isn’t showing up in polls — Abacus gave the Conservatives a seven-point lead nationally last week. But these results might also be traced back to that lack of comfort with the alternatives.

Abacus found that just 30 per cent of respondents had a positive impression of the prime minister, compared to 49 per cent who said they had a negative impression. But Poilievre’s personal numbers were barely any better, at 32 per cent and 40 per cent.

A poll released by the Angus Reid Institute this week tracked similar sentiments. For Trudeau, 36 per cent approved of the job he was doing, while 59 disapproved. For Poilievre, 36 per cent viewed him favourably, while 50 per cent viewed him unfavourably.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau greets supporters at a rally for byelection candidate Ben Carr, right, in Winnipeg on Wednesday, May 24, 2023. (John Woods/The Canadian Press)

After seven and a half years in office, Trudeau’s personal brand is weathered and worn. But his primary challenger isn’t looking much more attractive. And elections are always fundamentally a choice.

For the Liberals, that may offer limited solace. Convincing voters that Poilievre is an unappetizing option is probably a necessary part of any Liberal re-election campaign — but they probably can’t expect to win on that argument alone.

For the Conservatives, there may be little cause for optimism in these results. Bernier’s political career may actually be fizzling out (though that’s been said before — and more than once). But simply winning over the PPC vote and waiting for the Liberals to defeat themselves may not be enough to get Poilievre into power.

If the Conservative leader never again mentions the World Economic Forum, it might be because these byelections have made it clear that a win in Portage-Lisgar isn’t enough to win government.

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Jacob Trouba says ‘there’s no animosity’ toward Rangers following trade rumors

Published

5 mins ago

September 19, 2024

Anne Joseph

GREENBURGH, N.Y. (AP) — New York Rangers defenseman Jacob Trouba said Thursday “there’s no animosity” toward the organization following an offseason in which his name was prominently mentioned in trade rumors.

“It’s part of the business of hockey,” Trouba said following the first day of training camp for the reigning Presidents’ Trophy-winning Rangers.

According to reports, Rangers president and general manager Chris Drury had negotiated a trade that would send New York’s captain to Detroit in late June. The trade fell apart, however, when Trouba submitted his 15-team no-trade list to the Rangers on June 30 and included the Red Wings on it.

“Obviously, had the no-move that turned into the partial no-trade,” said Trouba, whom New York acquired in a trade with Winnipeg in June 2019 and signed to a seven-year, $56 million contract one month later. “That’s life, contracts, hockey business, whatever you want to call it.

“I knew that was coming that summer. It’s not by surprise. It was obviously something that was negotiated at the time.”

The 30-year-old’s insistence that his relationship with Drury is fine echoes what the executive said in a pre-training camp conference call with reporters.

“Jacob and I talk all the time as GM and captain should,” Drury said. “We’ve had a number of different conversations over the course of the summer on a lot of different things. He is very clear as to where he stands with me and what I think of him as a player and as a leader.”

Still, Trouba realizes that the 2024-25 season is likely the last for the current iteration of the Original Six franchise. The Rangers have qualified for the Stanley Cup Playoffs in each of the last three seasons, and have reached the Eastern Conference Finals in 2022 and 2024. Following last spring’s six-game series loss to the eventual Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers, Drury wondered aloud in a conference call with reporters if the Rangers’ core players could lead the franchise to a Stanley Cup.

“(It’s) an opportunity that we have in front of us that in all likelihood will probably be the last crack for this core,” Trouba said. “I don’t think that’s a secret by any means. (A) group that’s kind of grown together, spent some years together here, and there’s something we want to accomplish.”

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Veterans Tyson Beukeboom, Karen Paquin lead Canada’s team at WXV rugby tournament

Published

8 mins ago

September 19, 2024

Anne Joseph

Veterans Tyson Beukeboom and Karen Paquin will lead Canada at the WXV 1 women’s rugby tournament starting later this month in the Vancouver area.

WXV 1 includes the top three teams from the Women’s Six Nations (England, France and Ireland) and the top three teams from the Pacific Four Series (Canada, New Zealand, and the United States).

Third-ranked Canada faces No. 4 France, No. 7 Ireland and No. 1 England in the elite division of the three-tiered WXV tournament that runs Sept. 29 to Oct. 12 in Vancouver and Langley, B.C. No. 2 New Zealand and the eighth-ranked U.S. make up the six-team WVX 1 field.

“Our preparation time was short but efficient. This will be a strong team,” Canada coach Kevin Rouet said in a statement. “All the players have worked very hard for the last couple of weeks to prepare for WXV and we are excited for these next three matches and for the chance to play on home soil here in Vancouver against the best rugby teams in the world.

“France, Ireland and England will each challenge us in different ways but it’s another opportunity to test ourselves and another step in our journey to the Rugby World Cup next year.”

Beukeboom serves as captain in the injury absence of Sophie de Goede. The 33-year-old from Uxbridge, Ont., earned her Canadian-record 68th international cap in Canada’s first-ever victory over New Zealand in May at the Pacific Four Series.

Twenty three of the 30 Canadian players selected for WXV 1 were part of that Pacific Four Series squad.

Rouet’s roster includes the uncapped Asia Hogan-Rochester, Caroline Crossley and Rori Wood.

Hogan-Rochester and Crossley were part of the Canadian team that won rugby sevens silver at the Paris Olympics, along with WXV teammates Fancy Bermudez, Olivia Apps, Alysha Corrigan and Taylor Perry. Wood is a veteran of five seasons at UBC.

The 37-year-old Paquin, who has 38 caps for Canada including the 2014 Rugby World Cup, returns to the team for the first time since the 2021 World Cup.

Canada opens the tournament Sept. 29 against France at B.C. Place Stadium in Vancouver before facing Ireland on Oct. 5 at Willoughby Stadium at Langley Events Centre, and England on Oct. 12 at B.C. Place.

The second-tier WXV 2 and third-tier WXV 3 are slated to run Sept. 27 to Oct. 12, in South Africa and Dubai, respectively.

WXV 2 features Australia, Italy, Japan, Scotland, South Africa and Wales while WXV 3 is made up of Fiji, Hong Kong, Madagascar, the Netherlands, Samoa and Spain.

The tournament has 2025 World Cup qualification implications, although Canada, New Zealand and France, like host England, had already qualified by reaching the semifinals of the last tournament.

Ireland, South Africa, the U.S., Japan, Fiji and Brazil have also booked their ticket, with the final six berths going to the highest-finishing WXV teams who have not yet qualified through regional tournaments.

Canada’s Women’s Rugby Team WXV 1 Squad

Forwards

Alexandria Ellis, Ottawa, Stade Français Paris (France); Brittany Kassil, Guelph, Ont., Guelph Goats; Caroline Crossley, Victoria, Castaway Wanderers; Courtney Holtkamp, Rimbey, Alta., Red Deer Titans Rugby; DaLeaka Menin, Vulcan, Alta., Exeter Chiefs (England); Emily Tuttosi, Souris, Man., Exeter Chiefs (England); Fabiola Forteza, Quebec City, Stade Bordelais (France); Gabrielle Senft, Regina, Saracens (England); Gillian Boag, Calgary, Gloucester-Hartpury (England); Julia Omokhuale, Calgary, Leicester Tigers (England); Karen Paquin, Quebec City, Club de rugby de Quebec; Laetitia Royer, Loretteville, Que., ASM Romagnat (France); McKinley Hunt, King City, Ont., Saracens (England); Pamphinette Buisa, Gatineau, Que., Ottawa Irish; Rori Wood, Sooke, B.C., College Rifles RFC; Sara Cline, Edmonton, Leprechaun Tigers; Tyson Beukeboom, Uxbridge, Ont., Ealing Trailfinders (England);

Backs

Alexandra Tessier, Sainte-Clotilde-de-Horton, Que., Exeter Chiefs (England); Alysha Corrigan, Charlottetown, P.E.I., CRFC; Asia Hogan-Rochester, Toronto, Toronto Nomads; Claire Gallagher, Caledon, Ont., Leicester Tigers (England); Fancy Bermudez, Edmonton, Saracens (England); Julia Schell, Uxbridge, Ont., Ealing Trailfinders (England); Justine Pelletier, Rivière-du-Loup, Que, Stade Bordelais (France); Mahalia Robinson, Fulford, Que., Town of Mount Royal RFC; Olivia Apps, Lindsay, Ont., Lindsay RFC; Paige Farries, Red Deer, Alta., Saracens (England); Sara Kaljuvee, Ajax, Ont., Westshore RFC; Shoshanah Seumanutafa, White Rock, B.C., Counties Manukau (New Zealand); Taylor Perry, Oakville, Ont., Exeter Chiefs (England).

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Follow @NeilMDavidson on X platform, formerly known as Twitter

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

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Vancouver Canucks star goalie Thatcher Demko working through rare muscle injury

Published

8 mins ago

September 19, 2024

Anne Joseph

PENTICTON, B.C. – Vancouver Canucks goalie Thatcher Demko says he’s been working his way back from a rare lower-body muscle injury since being sidelined in last season’s playoffs.

The 28-year-old all star says the rehabilitation process has been frustrating, but he has made good progress in recent weeks and is confident he’ll be able to return to playing.

He says he and his medical team have spent the last few months talking to specialists around the world, and have not found a single other hockey player who has dealt with the same injury.

Demko missed several weeks of the last season with a knee ailment and played just one game in Vancouver’s playoff run last spring before going down with the current injury.

He was not on the ice with his teammates as the Canucks started training camp in Penticton, B.C., on Thursday, but skated on his own before the sessions began.

Demko posted a 35-14-2 record with a .918 percentage, a 2.45 goals-against average and five shutouts for Vancouver last season.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

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