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Tiff Macklem is sticking with rate-hike pause despite blowout jobs report

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Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem is sticking with his plan to pause interest rate increases, despite evidence the economy ended the year much stronger than the central bank expected.

“We’re still a long way from our inflation target, but recent developments have reinforced our confidence that inflation is coming down,” he said in prepared testimony for the House finance committee on Feb. 16.

The most recent development was Statistics Canada’s estimate of hiring in January. The agency on Feb. 10 said employers added 150,000 workers in January, far more than anyone expected, including the central bank, which had updated its forecasts that month with a prediction that economic growth would effectively stall at the start of the year.

With the jobless rate at five per cent, a figure that many economists equate with maximum employment, it’s hard to believe Canada’s economy is in any imminent danger. It might even be growing fast enough to keep upward pressure on inflation.
Several economists said after the latest job numbers that Macklem’s pledge to stop raising interest rates — assuming inflation continued on a downward trajectory — might have been hasty, given that outsized hiring could continue to stoke demand that the Bank of Canada has described as too intense for suppliers of goods and services to match.

“A robust labour market is a challenge for the Bank of Canada,” Charles St-Arnaud, chief economist at Alberta Central, said in a note on Feb. 10. The central bank “needs to slow growth and create some excess capacity in the economy to fight inflation. This will likely lead to a rise in the unemployment rate and job losses. With this in mind, continued strength and tightness in the labour market may not be a welcomed outcome for the BoC.”

The Bank of Canada’s next policy announcement is March 8. The governor made his conditional pledge to pause interest rate increases on Jan. 25, when it lifted the benchmark rate a quarter-point to 4.5 per cent, extending the most aggressive series of rate hikes in the central bank’s history.

It would take a lot for the governor to back down on such an explicit promise after less than two months. Now that he’s dangled the possibility that interest rates have peaked, reneging so quickly could damage the Bank of Canada’s credibility. Rightly or wrongly, that’s now a variable when policymakers debate what to do with interest rates going forward, and an example of why purists argue that central bankers should never box themselves in by offering explicit forward guidance.

“The recent (Bank of Canada) pause decision is looking more dubious by the day,” Phil Suttle, a former economist at the Bank of England and the New York Fed who now runs his own consulting firm, said in a note to clients this week.

Suttle said market-based expectations of where inflation will be in a year remain elevated in most rich countries, suggesting central banks will have to raise interest rates even higher to snuff out price pressures. Inflation expectations are especially high in Canada, according to his calculations.

What’s more, higher borrowing costs and slower wage growth in January have done little to slow consumer spending, Royal Bank of Canada economist Carrie Freestone said in a Feb. 16 report, citing the bank’s credit-card data. Discretionary spending remained strong through early February, based on the four-week average of daily transactions, and restaurant meals have even increased, she said.

Still, most economists — including Freestone — think it’s only a matter of time before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate increases start to bite. Canadian households are among the world’s most indebted, so it seems unlikely they will be able to continue spending at their current pace as the cost of servicing that debt begins to rise. That’s primarily why Macklem opted for a conditional pause. He’s sensitive about overdoing it.

“We know it takes time for higher interest rates to work through the economy to slow demand and reduce inflation,” he said. “That’s why policy needs to be forward-looking. Guided by what we have seen so far and our outlook for economic growth and inflation, we think it time to pause interest rate hikes and assess whether monetary policy is restrictive enough to return inflation to the (two per cent) target.”

But before he explained the rationale for the pause, Macklem made a point of emphasizing the conditional nature of his guidance, giving himself flexibility to resume raising rates in the spring or summer.

“This is a conditional pause,” he said very early in his opening statement to the committee. “It is conditional on economic developments evolving broadly in line with our forecast.”

In other words, don’t be angry if Macklem decides to raise interest rates again. You’ve been warned.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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