Although a 2023 recession isn’t guaranteed, economic indicators point to the fact that we could very well face an economic downturn early next year.
On December 7, the Bank of Canada increased its overnight rate by an additional 50 base points in an effort to cool down recent inflation. This, combined with RBC analysts’ prediction of a recession during the first quarter of 2023, hints at a possible economic pullback next year.
Regardless of whether or not the country sees a recession in the near future, it’s still a good idea to create a financial action plan to help mitigate your risks. Below, I’ll share some practical tips to help you and your family prepare, but first let’s go over what exactly happens during a recession.
What happens in a recession?
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem remarked in a public statement issued on November 14 that “Slowing economic growth will disproportionately affect our most vulnerable households. High inflation and high-interest rates to combat inflation put an additional burden on our lowest-income households.”
During a recession, the country’s GDP tends to decrease as some industries earn less revenue.
Some potential outcomes of a recession are:
- Increased unemployment and job loss
- Reduced spending by consumers, which hurts businesses
- Price drops in housing markets
- Stock market pullback, which results in investor losses
Financial action plan tips for a potential recession in 2023
When it comes to your personal finances, it’s good practice to prepare for the worst. With Canada’s top economists predicting a recession, consumers should take note and plan accordingly.
Here are some actionable steps that you can take to limit the recession’s effect on your finances.
1. Evaluate your investment risk
Now’s the time to look at your investments to see if you’re satisfied with how much risk you are exposed to.
Higher-risk investments have a higher potential to incur more investment losses than a lower-risk investment would. The classic example of this is higher-risk investments such as stocks versus lower-risk investments such as bonds. During a recession, stocks generally sustain larger losses than bonds.
This can cause a lot of sleepless nights and stress if your portfolio value starts dipping too low during a recession than what your risk tolerance allows.
Take a free investor questionnaire online to see if your current investments align with your risk tolerance. If you’re exposed to too much risk, consider adjusting your portfolio to something with lower risk, such as fixed-income, GICs, or high-interest savings accounts.
2. Pay down high-interest debt
If you have open credit lines that are subject to variable interest rates, then expect these to increase during a recession. Thanks to the central bank’s recent interest rate hikes, Canadians are seeing much higher interest rates and increased fees imposed by their creditors.
Before interest rates increase too much, it’s a good idea to pay your debt down as much as you can. The lower your principal balance is, the less you’ll end up forking over interest payments.
It’s best to be proactive here, as you’re less likely to have extra funds available during a recession.
3. Build your emergency savings
Increased inflation and higher prices for everyday services and essentials can be hazardous to your savings. With a potential recession looming in the next few months, this is something to be very wary of.
Instead of burning through your savings, try your best to cut back on expenses and use that money to build your emergency savings. If you’re unsure where to start, look at the three big areas where you can potentially cut back on spending; your housing, transportation, or food. I find that most people usually have one area where they are overspending on.
Economic recessions can often result in unforeseen circumstances, such as job loss, reduced hours, and pay cuts. If you were counting on a bonus, this might be postponed as well.
The more you have saved, the easier it will be to deal with these sudden changes so that you don’t fall behind on your bills or find yourself unable to provide for your family.
4. Optimize your resume
Unemployment and reduced hours are very common in a recession, as businesses cut down on non-essential positions. One of the best ways to improve your job security is to continue providing value and to go above and beyond the base requirements of your position.
However, you should also be prepared for potential job loss. If your hours are cut, you may also need to pursue a second job.
To speed up the process, you should revise and optimize your resume, ensuring that you have a backup plan if your job goes south.
5. Reevaluate your monthly budget
If you don’t have a clear monthly budget, then you’re likely spending more than you should be. Whether you’re single or living in an economic family, I recommend sitting down and going over your income and spending to create a budget that allows you to save more money.
Calculate your monthly income and determine how much you spend on bills, fuel, groceries, and other necessary expenses. Then, try to find categories where unnecessary spending can be cut.
6. Postpone expensive purchases
If you were thinking of buying a new car, a recreational vehicle, remodelling your home, or going on an expensive vacation, it might be best to postpone the unnecessary expenditure. If a recession occurs, the cost of many of these things may naturally decrease, which means that you will have spent the extra money for no reason.
Additionally, many of these types of expenses aren’t a necessity. To ensure that you’re adequately prepared for a recession, it’s better to divert these funds to your emergency savings.
The bottom line
As Benjamin Franklin famously stated, “If you fail to plan, you are planning to fail.”
It’s very possible that Canada could see a recession in early 2023. Even though it’s not a guarantee, you should still prepare your finances by cutting down on unnecessary spending and building your savings.
Even if the economy changes from its current course, then you’ll still be better off for your preparation, as you’ll have saved more and increased your financial value.
Christopher Liew is a CFA Charterholder and former financial advisor. He writes personal finance tips for thousands of daily Canadian readers on his Wealth Awesome website.
A shortage of pilots is making travel chaos in Canada even worse – CBC.ca
From pandemic-related travel restrictions to extreme weather events, Canada’s travel industry has navigated an unprecedented amount of uncertainty of late. And now, just as demand for travel has returned to its 2019 level, airlines are navigating their next patch of turbulence: a lack of qualified pilots.
According to Transport Canada, in a typical pre-pandemic year, roughly 1,100 pilot licences were issued. When complemented by foreign-trained pilots, that was generally more than enough to satisfy the needs of carriers as large as WestJet and Air Canada, all the way down to regional, charter and cargo airlines.
But as demand for flying collapsed in 2020, so did the number of new pilots getting their paperwork. Government data shows less than 500 licences were awarded in 2020, a figure that fell to less than 300 in 2021 and just 238 last year.
The department told CBC News in a statement that while labour shortages in the airline sector has been “identified as a priority area for action,” there are no current plans to loosen regulations. But the agency says it’s doing what it can to “increase the competitiveness of the Canadian flight training industry as well as improve the viability of aviation careers to address any shortages.”
Whatever changes do come will do little to help anyone in the short term, and travellers are already seeing the impact of the industry’s current labour crunch.
Staff shortages were a factor in charter airline Sunwing’s cancellation of 67 flights over the last two weeks of December, along with extreme weather.
Salaries for experienced pilots generally go up faster and higher at the major airlines than they do at most others, they are so typically able to have their pick among those available. That causes shortages just about everywhere else.
The head of the Air Transport Association of Canada says it’s a problem that had been brewing for many years, even before the pandemic.
“We haven’t had enough pilots for a long time, mostly at the regional level,” John McKenna said.
Long, expensive process
Getting a commercial licence is the last step in a multi-year process of becoming a pilot, a journey that can cost tens of thousands of dollars and take years.
In Canada, for many that journey ends with a dream job at either WestJet or Air Canada, but because of the expense and time commitment of training a new pilot, the major airlines often hire top staff from smaller carriers instead of methodically developing their own.
“Their fishing grounds is the regional carriers. And the regional carriers go down to the smaller carriers, air taxi groups … those levels have been hurting for many years,” McKenna said.
Canada’s two biggest airlines told CBC News in emailed statements that while there is indeed a higher than normal demand for pilots right now, both of them are managing to meet their needs.
“As a large global carrier operating the most modern, largest aircraft, we are a very desirable destination for talented pilots,” AIr Canada said. “As a result, we are able to attract pilots as required.”
“We have and continue to responsibly manage and plan our operations to meet the anticipated demand of our guests and are fully staffed across our network to support our operation,” WestJet said.
That’s not the case for everyone else. Small airlines often have so few pilots on staff that it doesn’t take the loss of very many to stop planes from flying.
In the fall, Sunwing applied to bring in more than 60 temporary foreign workers to meet demand for pilots, but that application was rejected, which exacerbated the chaos seen at the end of 2022. The airline has since cancelled almost all flights out of Saskatchewan and most out of Manitoba for the rest of the winter travel season.
Pandemic reduced numbers, too
It’s not just the big boys gobbling up all the qualified pilots, either. Many simply left the profession during the pandemic.
“Two years ago, to the day, literally almost every pilot [was] out of work,” says Dave Boston, a pilot with 25 years experience who’s also the man behind Edmonton-based aviation job board, Pilot Career Centre.
Faced with furloughs and layoffs at airlines big and small, many pilots tried to wait it out, but many simply moved on, he told CBC News in an interview.
“Many who had businesses or other interests, after maybe six months to a year, had to put food on the table, and they left the industry,” Boston said.
For the pilots who are left, headhunting is the new normal. He says he hears from desperate airlines every day, because they either can’t find the staff, or just lost yet another one. “It’s very common for pilots, unfortunately, to work there for six months [then] get a surprise interview that they don’t expect to get, and then they’re gone,” he said.
“It’s a real challenge right now.”
One person hoping to meet that challenge is Zona Savic, a soon-to-be graduate of one of Canada’s premier aviation schools, Seneca College in Peterborough, Ont.
While she had planned to go into engineering, she joined the Air Cadets while in high school, and was quickly bitten by the aviation bug.
“I just knew from the moment that I was in that plane, this is what I was going to do,” she told CBC News in an interview.
She’s on track to get her pilot’s licence soon, and while she may do additional training to become an instructor herself, she says it’s a load off her mind to know that she won’t have to worry about finding a job.
And even better for the industry, she has no qualms about working her way up at smaller carriers flying niche, remote routes.
” I just love the feeling of flying, so if that’s what I’m doing, I don’t really care if I’m in Paris, or in Nunavut,” she says. “Anything is good for me, as long as I get to experience that.”
Canadians detained in Syria: Woman faces agonizing choice – CTV News
When “Asiya” first heard that the Canadian government had agreed to repatriate women and children from detention camps in northeast Syria, she felt that safety was within grasp for her family — only to have those hopes dashed a few days later in a call with a federal official.
CTV News is using the pseudonym “Asiya” for the 36-year old woman out of concern for her safety inside the Al-Roj camp. Asiya is married to a man from Ottawa who was working in the Middle East and travelled to Syria as a religious scholar, she said. They have three children under the age of nine. Their oldest son has severe autism and requires brain surgery. The middle child has burns down the back of his body after falling into a kerosene heater. She says the burns are so painful, her son can’t sit and cries when he puts on clothes. Their youngest daughter was born in the camp, months after her father was thrown in prison.
Last Thursday, Asiya said she received a call from a Global Affairs official saying her children are eligible for repatriation but she is excluded from the deal because she is not a Canadian citizen.
On Jan. 19, Global Affairs reached an agreement to bring back 19 women and children who had initially sued in federal court for repatriation. A day later, a federal judge ordered Canada to bring back four men languishing in Syrian prisons. They were alleged to have ISIS links, but have never been charged. The government is still considering whether to abide by the order or appeal it.
Neither Asiya nor her husband were part of those cases.
DEADLINE TO DECIDE
To get her children on the plane to Canada, Asiya said Global Affairs told her she must agree to relinquish custody. Asiya said the government gave her a deadline of one and a half weeks to decide.
“I have no choice. Either I lose them by not seeing them. Or I lose them here as the camp is full of young bodies,” said Asiya in a monitored phone call from the Al-Roj camp administration office.
According to Reprieve, a human rights legal advocacy group, Asiya is one of four mothers and 10 children caught in the same government-imposed dilemma.
“It’s one of the cruellest and inhumane policies we can imagine. It’s enforced family separation,” said Reprieve executive director Maya Foa in a video interview from London, England.
Global Affairs did not respond to CTV News’ request for comment on the case.
FATE OF FATHERS UNKNOWN
Foa said the Canadian fathers of these children are missing in Syria, perhaps killed during the civil war or held incommunicado in prisons. The children have never lived in Canada.
Foa said this is the government choosing to “rip these children from the one caregiver they know” to put them in the care of strangers and placing them at risk of “irreparable harm and trauma,” while leaving behind mothers who may not survive.
Foa has travelled to the camps at least 10 times to interview detainees on behalf of Reprieve and collect information to persuade governments to repatriate their nationals. There are more than 40,000 detainees from 57 countries in the camps. The majority of those living in the de facto open-air prisons are children, most under the age of 10.
According to Reprieve’s research, the majority of the women in the camps may have been trafficked.
“There are circumstances where women with particular vulnerablitieis are coerced or convinced into travel, not because they have ideological affiliation with ISIS, but because they have partners, fathers of their children,” said Foa. “The statistics in the U.K. show that 63 per cent meet the definition of potential victim of trafficking.”
Foa said she last interviewed Asiya in 2022 to prepare medical documents for her children to present to the Canadian government. Foa said the Middle East country where Asiya was born does not have a good human rights record. If Asiya and her children were to be repatriated to that country, Foa said there’s a possibility Asiya would disappear, be tortured or killed.
FOLLOWED HUSBAND TO SYRIA
In her interview with CTV News, Asiya said she was an engineer who worked in both New Jersey and Cairo. It was in Egypt where she met and married her Canadian husband in 2011. She said her husband is a religious scholar who travelled to Syria to research the Islamic State in 2015. Asiya said she followed him there with their children, to take care of him because she was worried about his health.
“He was getting sick. He was weak – he can’t even hold a camera. He has hepatitis and diabetes and genetic migraines. He can’t see at night.”
Asiya said that she has not seen her husband since 2019 after he was jailed by Kurdish forces and she and her children were placed in the camps.
CTV News has seen her husband’s birth certificate which lists his birthplace as Ottawa and shows that his parents once lived in the Vanier neighbourhood. She said her husband was previously held at the Ghwaryan prison, but does not know if he survived an attack on the prison by ISIS militants last January.
MORE LEGAL ACTION
As Asiya’s decision day approaches, more legal action is being pursued. Yoav Niv, a Calgary lawyer who argues cases in federal court, says he will be applying for a temporary resident permit to get the non-Canadian mothers to Canada.
Niv helped repatriate the first Canadian woman from a Syrian detention camp in 2021. He says Global Affairs’ decision to separate children from their mothers in these cases is morally wrong and violates United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child, which Canada ratified in 1991.
“In this case there has to be an assessment whether separation of these mothers from their children is in the best interests of the child. It’s our position that it’s not, fundamentally,” said Niv.
Alexandra Bain, with the Canadian organization Families Against Violent Extremism (FAVE), is also in regular contact with Asiya and other Canadian families.
Bain said Global Affairs has told 26 women and children that they will soon be on a plane home.
“My understanding is that they will be on an American military aircraft. It will take off one time, and the (non-Canadian) mothers have been told that if they haven’t made the decision since then they will be left behind,” said Bains.
More than 40 Canadians are currently in Kurdish-operated camps and prisons in Syria. Most of them are children, hoping for a way home — desperate for an end to their abandonment.
Canada politics: Billions not spent on promised programs – CTV News
The federal government failed to spend tens of billions of dollars in the last fiscal year on promised programs and services, including new military equipment, affordable housing and support for veterans.
Federal departments are blaming a variety of factors for letting a record total of $38 billion in funding lapse in 2021-22, including delays and disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
They also say much of the money remains available for future years.
The unspent funds also played a big part in the Liberal government posting a smaller-than-expected deficit in the year ending March 31, 2022.
Canada rang up a $90.2 billion deficit — $23.6 billion less than had been projected in the budget.
The unprecedented amount of lapsed funding, much of which has been returned to the federal treasury, has one observer suggesting it is a sign of long-standing challenges delivering on big federal projects for the country.
The amount of lapsed funds across government is spelled out in the most recent iteration of the public accounts, a report on federal revenues and spending by every department and agency tabled in the House of Commons every year.
The $38.2 billion that was reported as lapsed in the last fiscal year marks a new record over the previous year, which was $32.2 billion. That was a dramatic increase over the previous record of $14 billion in 2019-20.
That compares to around $10 billion about a decade ago, when Stephen Harper’s Conservative government was accused by political opponents and experts alike of using large lapses to make cuts by stealth.
Health Canada and the Public Health Agency of Canada reported the largest lapses of all departments and agencies, with nearly $11.2 billion of their combined $28.2 billion budgets going unspent.
Much of that had been set aside for COVID-19 initiatives that were not needed, said Health Canada spokeswoman Tammy Jarbeau. Those include vaccines, personal protective equipment and rapid tests.
“Both Health Canada and the Public Health Agency of Canada have rigorous internal financial management controls designed to prevent, detect and minimize errors and financial losses, and ensure the funding is spent in the best interests of Canadians,” she wrote in an email.
The pandemic figured in the responses and explanations from many other departments and agencies, with many blaming COVID-19 for delays.
One of them was the Defence Department, which reported a lapse of $2.5 billion in the last fiscal year. Much of the money wasn’t spent due to delays in the delivery of new military equipment such as Arctic patrol vessels and upgrades to the Army’s armoured vehicles.
There were also delays on major infrastructure projects for the military, according to Defence Department spokeswoman Jessica Lamirande. Those include upgrading and rebuilding two jetties for the Navy in Esquimalt, B.C., and a new armoury in New Brunswick.
“The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on many of our business lines,” Lamirande said.
“The impacts of the pandemic on supply chain and industry capacity are causing manufacturing backlogs and delays.”
Lamirande added most of the unspent funds are expected to be available in future years through a process called reprofiling, in which schedules are revised to reflect planned spending in future years due to those delays.
Former parliamentary budget officer Kevin Page said the government’s handling of lapsed funding now is “a little more relaxed” than in previous years, when unspent funds were not reprofiled and even used to justify budget cuts in Ottawa.
But defence analyst David Perry of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute said the Defence Department’s lapse, which has been steadily growing in recent years, is a symptom of Ottawa’s continued difficulties purchasing new military equipment.
“If we’re not getting those procurement projects through, we’re not getting new equipment into the inventory, so we don’t actually have the gear for our troops,” he said, noting many of the delayed projects were launched under the Harper government.
Perry also noted the current rate of inflation, which is already naturally higher for military equipment and the defence sector than most other parts of the economy. Not spending money now means Canada will have to pay more for the same gear and services later, he said.
The Infrastructure Department, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corp. and the Fisheries Department, which includes the Canadian Coast Guard, also reported delays with different capital projects, including on affordable housing and broadband internet.
“Due to the unprecedented circumstances over the last few years such as the COVID-19 pandemic, disbursing funds to proponents for many projects are expected to and will take longer,” CMHC spokeswoman Claudie Chabot said in an email.
Perry suggested a bigger problem.
“The government of Canada’s ability to actually deliver services to the public, especially when it comes to large projects, large capital projects, be it for equipment or infrastructure or IT projects, is struggling across the board,” he said.
Other federal entities with large lapses included Indigenous Services Canada, which failed to spend $3.4 billion, and Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs Canada, which reported a lapse of $2.2 billion.
Spokesman Vincent Gauthier attributed much of the latter lapse to “the timing and progress of negotiations for specific claims and childhood litigations,” adding that funds will be available “in some instances” in future years.
Gauthier did not say why Indigenous Services, which is responsible for delivering federal services to First Nations, Inuit and Metis, failed to spend billions of dollars. He did say most of the money had been reprofiled “so that it will be available when recipients need it.”
Veterans Affairs Canada also reported a nearly $1 billion lapse last year, which the department blamed on fewer ill and injured ex-soldiers applying for assistance than expected.
However, critics have described earlier lapsed funding as evidence of the challenges many veterans face in accessing benefits and services. In 2014, the Royal Canadian Legion demanded the Harper government explain why $1.1 billion went unspent over seven years.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 30, 2023.
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